GATX Corporation (GATX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of GATX Corporation stock $129, price $183, that is 29.4% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $77.75 – $199.25 · fair‑value band $70.37 – $162.25 · the $182.74 price screens above the $129.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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GATX Corporation, together its subsidiaries, operates as railcar leasing company in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, and India. It operates through three segments: Rail North America, Rail International, and Engine Leasing.
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The company leases tank and freight railcars, and locomotives for petroleum, chemical, food/agriculture, and transportation industries.
It also offers maintenance services, including the interior cleaning of railcars, routine maintenance and repair of car body and safety appliances, regulatory compliance works, wheelset replacements, interior blast and lining, exterior blast and painting, and car stenciling services.
In addition, the company manufactures commercial aircraft jet engines and leases aircraft spare engines; and owns and manages tank containers that are leased to chemical, industrial gas, energy, food, cryogenic and pharmaceutical industries, transport and logistic, and tank container operators, as well as provides tank container leasing, remarketing, and inspection and maintenance services.
As of December 31, 2025, it owned and operated a fleet of approximately 156,000 railcars; 567 four-axle and 60 six-axle locomotives; 456 aircraft spare engines; and 25,602 tank containers. GATX Corporation was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
GATX Corporation (GATX) currently trades at $182.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $129.05, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $154.14 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the $182.74 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $28.87, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $70.37 (bear) to $162.25 (bull), the price of $182.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
GATX Corporation reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $333M in FY2025, compounding +23.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.5B Mid · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 2.95 · EPS (TTM) $10.77 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 17.7% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −29%, GATX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$70.37Fair Value $129.05Bull$162.25
Price $182.74 · Downside -29.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.01 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
SaleBrian L GlassbergEVP, General Counsel & Secy.2,000 shares at $198.29$396,578Feb 20, 2026
Plus 26 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.47/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+16.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16.8% vs 7.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 31%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Strong utilization in the North American rail fleet supports recurring revenues while negative free cash flow from fleet investments limits durability.
Main risk: Guarantees on the roughly three billion dollar term loan for the GABX joint venture could expose the company to refinancing pressures or higher interest costs that squeeze margins in its rail leasing operations.
Bull case: By successfully integrating recent fleet acquisitions and maintaining high utilization through diversified customer relationships the company could generate stable recurring revenues that support debt management and further platform growth.
Bear case: If refinancing the guaranteed joint venture debt becomes costly or restricted amid higher interest rates the resulting pressure on cash flows could limit new investments and erode margins across the leasing businesses.
GATX runs a leasing business built on railcars, aircraft engines and tank containers that generate recurring revenue only when utilization stays high. Recent results showed the combined North American rail fleet at 98 percent utilization amid steady demand. That strength supports cash flows today, yet any broad slowdown in freight or industrial activity could quickly erode those rates and margins. Will utilization hold near current levels through the next cycle or prove more sensitive to economic shifts than the headline numbers suggest?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 85 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GATX Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GATX
Frequently asked questions
Is GATX Corporation (GATX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $129.05 versus a price of $182.74, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GATX?
Our model-based fair value for GATX Corporation is $129.05 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $182.74.
What is the quality score of GATX?
GATX Corporation has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GATX Corporation (GATX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $129.05 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $70.37, optimistic scenario $162.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GATX Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $129.05, about 29% lower versus a price of $182.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $70.37, optimistic scenario $162.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
GATX Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does GATX Corporation pay a dividend?
GATX Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 1.42% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of GATX Corporation (GATX) and when is the ex-dividend date?
GATX Corporation pays a dividend of $2.59 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.4%. The next ex-dividend date is Dec 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1984. The payout ratio is 25.6% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 24.0%). Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GATX Corporation it is $129.05 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $182.74. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is GATX Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, GATX trades above its calculated fair value: price $182.74, fair value $129.05, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GATX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($182.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($129.05). For GATX Corporation the two are $53.69 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GATX Corporation worth?
The market values GATX Corporation at about $6.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $182.74; our models calculate a fair value of $129.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GATX?
Our models span a range for GATX Corporation: cautious scenario $70.37, base $129.05, optimistic $162.25 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $182.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GATX?
GATX Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $129.05 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 20.9 (reported for FY2025: 19.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 18.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 2.4, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 10.7.
What is the PEG ratio of GATX?
The PEG ratio of GATX Corporation is 0.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
Balance-sheet figures for GATX Corporation (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 4.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GATX from its 52-week high?
GATX Corporation trades at $182.74, about 8% below its 52-week high of $199.25 and 22% above the low of $150.24 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $129.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GATX Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GATX Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $182.74, calculated fair value $129.05 (−29%), Quality Score 42/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GATX calculated?
We run GATX Corporation through 11 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $129.05 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. GATX Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $182.74. Our model-based fair value is $129.05, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with GATX Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($162.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($70.37 to $162.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of GATX Corporation (GATX) come from?
Earnings per share at GATX Corporation grew +5.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.2 %, EBIT margin +7.1 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −7.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of GATX Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
The market capitalisation of GATX Corporation is $6.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of GATX Corporation is 2.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
Earnings per share at GATX Corporation are $10.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
The dividend yield of GATX Corporation is 1.4% (payout 25.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 24.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
The net margin of GATX Corporation is 17.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of GATX Corporation is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of GATX Corporation is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
The operating margin of GATX Corporation is 32.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at GATX Corporation (GATX)?
Revenue at GATX Corporation is growing +36.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at GATX Corporation (GATX)?
Earnings per share at GATX Corporation are growing +29.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does GATX Corporation (GATX) generate?
The free cash flow of GATX Corporation is −$684M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does GATX Corporation (GATX) carry?
The net debt of GATX Corporation is $7.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026