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Data-driven stock valuation

GATX Corporation (GATX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what GATX Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Industrials · US · Market cap $6.3B · ISIN US3614481030

At a glance

GC GATX Corporation logo GATX Corporation GATX · US
Price$176.32
Fair Value$140.90
Upside−20.1%
Quality41/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 25% above our fair value of $140.90.

As of Sep 3, 2026, the fair value of GATX Corporation is $140.90 per share against a price of $176.32, so the fair value sits 20% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.6 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.9% net margin
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·1.41% dividend yield
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Moderate moat 63/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 7 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 28 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $107.30 to $190.33

Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 6 days ago

Share price −0.8% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$200.00 $78.05 Fair Value $140.90 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $78.05 – $200.00 · fair‑value band $107.30 – $190.33 · the $176.32 price screens above the $140.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.

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Analysis

GATX Corporation (GATX) currently trades at $176.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $140.90, implying the stock looks roughly 25.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $153.28 per share, and 1 of the 11 models we run sit above the $176.32 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $30.81, and 10 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, GATX Corporation generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of 17.9%. Revenue grew 38.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.8%. Net debt stands at $7.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026

Scenario range: $107.30 (bear) to $190.33 (bull), the price of $176.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −20%, GATX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.72 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $70.84 $82.97 $159.92 72
Gordon GGM $22.21 $31.46 $40.69 69
DDM Multi-Stage $22.21 $30.81 $40.38 67
All 11 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $63.84 $128.33 $161.35 66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $22.21 $31.46 $40.69 69
DDM Multi-Stage $22.21 $30.81 $40.38 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $147.86 $197.15 $246.44 63
P/S Multiple $73.53 $98.04 $122.55 58
P/B Multiple $119.70 $159.60 $199.50 55
EV/EBIT n/a $45.43 $109.37 61
EV/EBITDA $60.58 $150.87 $241.17 63
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $38.74 $51.91 $77.47 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $70.84 $82.97 $159.92 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $107.30 $153.28 $199.27 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($153.28) versus Dividend Discount ($30.81). Highest evidence: Residual Income (72).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 18.9
P/S ratio 3.62 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $9.32 price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.9
Dividend yield 1.4% payout 26.7%
Net margin 19.2% FY2025
Return on equity 10.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 29.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $1.9B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +38.4% 3y avg +11.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +9.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −$684M FY2025
Net debt $7.8B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 16
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 46
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

GATX Corporation, together its subsidiaries, operates as railcar leasing company in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, and India. It operates through three segments: Rail North America, Rail International, and Engine Leasing.

Full company description

GATX Corporation, together its subsidiaries, operates as railcar leasing company in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Europe, and India. It operates through three segments: Rail North America, Rail International, and Engine Leasing. The company leases tank and freight railcars, and locomotives for petroleum, chemical, food/agriculture, and transportation industries. It also offers maintenance services, including the interior cleaning of railcars, routine maintenance and repair of car body and safety appliances, regulatory compliance works, wheelset replacements, interior blast and lining, exterior blast and painting, and car stenciling services. In addition, the company manufactures commercial aircraft jet engines and leases aircraft spare engines; and owns and manages tank containers that are leased to chemical, industrial gas, energy, food, cryogenic and pharmaceutical industries, transport and logistic, and tank container operators, as well as provides tank container leasing, remarketing, and inspection and maintenance services. As of December 31, 2025, it owned and operated a fleet of approximately 156,000 railcars; 567 four-axle and 60 six-axle locomotives; 456 aircraft spare engines; and 25,602 tank containers. GATX Corporation was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

GATX Corporation reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $333M in FY2025, compounding +23.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 42/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.7B
Latest YoY
+9.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+16.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+15.4%
Dividend yield1.4%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 16.8% vs 10Y 7.1%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23.7% (2020) → 30.7% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop57% (2009) · in USD
Revenue +8.5%/yr
FY21 $1.3B
FY22 $1.3B
FY23 $1.4B
FY24 $1.6B
FY25 $1.7B
Net income +23.5%/yr
FY21 $143M
FY22 $156M
FY23 $259M
FY24 $284M
FY25 $333M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +5.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.2 %

of which total revenue +1.0 % · buybacks/dilution +2.2 %

EBIT margin +7.1 %
Tax rate +2.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −7.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

GATX screens 25% overvalued. Compare with United Rentals, Inc →

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GATX Corporation · Fair Value
$140.90 −25%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GATX Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GATX

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Rental & Leasing Services · 91 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside −21% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 30% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 38% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 4.53× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.30× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.33× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 12.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.64× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE7 · sector 63
FUTURE100 · sector 30
PAST43 · sector 27
HEALTH0 · sector 69
DIVIDEND28 · sector 47

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Rentals, Inc URI $1,038 $449.86 −57%
Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB $84.80 $65.76 −22%
AerCap Holdings AER $147.49 $301.51 +104%
U-Haul Holding UHAL $67.19 $7.21 −89%
Ryder System, Inc R $243.48 $109.71 −55%
Ayvens AYV €11.36 €25.90 +128%
Element Fleet Management Corp EFN C$27.92 C$20.86 −25%
BOC Aviation Limited 2588 HK$75.15 HK$145.91 +94%
Avis Budget Group CAR $139.58 $158.11 +13%
WillScot Holdings WSC $23.76 $43.19 +82%

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Frequently asked questions

Is GATX Corporation (GATX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $140.90 versus a price of $176.32, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GATX?
Our model-based fair value for GATX Corporation is $140.90 (as of Sep 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $176.32.
What is the quality score of GATX?
GATX Corporation has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for GATX Corporation (GATX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $140.90 (as of Sep 3, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $107.30, optimistic scenario $190.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the GATX Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $140.90, about −20% upside versus a price of $176.32 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $107.30, optimistic scenario $190.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
GATX Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GATX?
The net profit margin of GATX Corporation is about 17.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does GATX Corporation pay a dividend?
GATX Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.41% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For GATX Corporation it is $140.90 per share (as of Sep 3, 2026), against a price of $176.32. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is GATX Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 3, 2026, GATX trades above its calculated fair value: price $176.32, fair value $140.90, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GATX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($176.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($140.90). For GATX Corporation the two are $35.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is GATX Corporation worth?
The market values GATX Corporation at about $6.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 3, 2026). Per share that is $176.32; our models calculate a fair value of $140.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GATX?
Our models span a range for GATX Corporation: cautious scenario $107.30, base $140.90, optimistic $190.33 per share (as of Sep 3, 2026, price $176.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GATX?
GATX Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 (as of Sep 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $140.90 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 2.3, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 12.5.
What is the PEG ratio of GATX?
The PEG ratio of GATX Corporation is 0.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of GATX Corporation (GATX)?
Balance-sheet figures for GATX Corporation (as of Sep 3, 2026): return on equity 10.8%, debt of 4.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GATX from its 52-week high?
GATX Corporation trades at $176.32, about 14% below its 52-week high of $205.56 and 20% above the low of $146.61 (as of Sep 3, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $140.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to GATX Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is GATX Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 3, 2026: price $176.32, calculated fair value $140.90 (−20%), Quality Score 41/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GATX calculated?
We run GATX Corporation through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $140.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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