BOC Aviation Ltd (2588) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of BOC Aviation Ltd HK$146, price HK$69.50, upside +110.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$38.97 – HK$89.04 · fair‑value band HK$102.20 – HK$189.80 · the HK$69.50 price screens below the HK$146.00 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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BOC Aviation Limited operates as an aircraft operating leasing company in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, rest of the Asia Pacific, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
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BOC Aviation Limited operates as an aircraft operating leasing company in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, rest of the Asia Pacific, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers a range of services to airlines and aircraft owners, including direct operating and finance leases, sale and leaseback facilities, engine finance leases, and third-party asset management. It also provides aircraft remarketing and technical management services to airlines, banks, and other investors; debt financing and other financial services for airlines; and lease management services for its assets, as well as sells aircraft. The company operates a fleet of owned, managed, and on order aircraft. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Singapore. BOC Aviation Limited is a subsidiary of Bank of China Limited.
Stock analysis
BOC Aviation Ltd (2588) currently trades at HK$69.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$146.00, implying the stock looks roughly 52.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$186.88 per share, and 9 of the 15 models we run sit above the HK$69.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$49.26, and 6 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$102.20 (bear) to HK$189.80 (bull), the price of HK$69.50 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
BOC Aviation Ltd reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was $787M in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$48.2B (≈ $6.1B) · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 3.02 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.4900 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 32.7% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at 110%, 2588 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$102.20Fair Value HK$146.00Bull HK$189.80
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (HK$0.0270 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.0% vs 6.9%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.62% → 26%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (37 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 92 stocks
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Is BOC Aviation Ltd (2588) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$146.00 versus a price of HK$69.50, about +110% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 2588?
Our model-based fair value for BOC Aviation Ltd is HK$146.00 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$69.50.
What is the quality score of 2588?
BOC Aviation Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$146.00 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$102.20, optimistic scenario HK$189.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the BOC Aviation Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$146.00, about +110% upside versus a price of HK$69.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$102.20, optimistic scenario HK$189.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
BOC Aviation Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does BOC Aviation Ltd pay a dividend?
BOC Aviation Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.65% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For BOC Aviation Ltd it is HK$146.00 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$69.50. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is BOC Aviation Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 2588 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$69.50, fair value HK$146.00, a gap of about +110% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 2588?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$69.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$146.00). For BOC Aviation Ltd the two are HK$76.50 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is BOC Aviation Ltd worth?
The market values BOC Aviation Ltd at about HK$48.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$69.50; our models calculate a fair value of HK$146.00 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 2588?
Our models span a range for BOC Aviation Ltd: cautious scenario HK$102.20, base HK$146.00, optimistic HK$189.80 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$69.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 2588?
BOC Aviation Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$146.00 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.7, P/B 0.9, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 15.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 2588?
The PEG ratio of BOC Aviation Ltd is 3.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
Balance-sheet figures for BOC Aviation Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 11.9%, debt of 2.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 2588 from its 52-week high?
BOC Aviation Ltd trades at HK$69.50, about 22% below its 52-week high of HK$89.04 and 5% above the low of HK$65.90 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$146.00 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to BOC Aviation Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is BOC Aviation Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$69.50, calculated fair value HK$146.00 (+110%), Quality Score 51/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 2588 calculated?
We run BOC Aviation Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$146.00, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. BOC Aviation Ltd currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was HK$69.50. Our model-based fair value is HK$146.00, about +110% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with BOC Aviation Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$102.20). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (HK$102.20 to HK$189.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588) come from?
Earnings per share at BOC Aviation Ltd grew +8.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin +3.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of BOC Aviation Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
The market capitalisation of BOC Aviation Ltd is HK$48.2B (≈ $6.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
The price-to-sales ratio of BOC Aviation Ltd is 3.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
Earnings per share at BOC Aviation Ltd are HK$0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
The dividend yield of BOC Aviation Ltd is 0.7% (payout 92.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
The net margin of BOC Aviation Ltd is 32.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
The return on equity (ROE) of BOC Aviation Ltd is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of BOC Aviation Ltd is 7.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
The operating margin of BOC Aviation Ltd is 60.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
Revenue at BOC Aviation Ltd is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at BOC Aviation Ltd (2588)?
Earnings per share at BOC Aviation Ltd are growing −4.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does BOC Aviation Ltd (2588) generate?
The free cash flow of BOC Aviation Ltd is −$2.1B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does BOC Aviation Ltd (2588) carry?
The net debt of BOC Aviation Ltd is $16.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 27, 2026