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AerCap Holdings NV (AER) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what AerCap Holdings NV is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Industrials · US · ISIN NL0000687663

AH AerCap Holdings NV logo Broad data Sep 18, 2026

AerCap Holdings NV

AER · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $301.51 · Strongly undervalued (+111%)
!Quality 56/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +12.8 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 45.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
·0.94% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (9/14)
✓Wide moat 76/100
!Insider activity 45/100
!Weak on dividend: 19 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$155.24 $37.02 Fair Value $301.51 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $37.02 – $155.24 · fair‑value band $160.64 – $406.40 · the $143.00 price screens below the $301.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally.

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AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or sale; collecting rental and supplemental maintenance rent payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft and engines; conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft and engine asset management services also include periodically inspecting the leased aircraft and engines; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructuring negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft and engines; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and engine valuations; and providing market research services. In addition, the company provides corporate administrative services comprising accounting, and corporate secretarial services consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements; and cash management services, including treasury services, such as the financing, refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of companies. Further, it offers airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines; maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers; and aircraft parts distributors. The company has a portfolio of owned, managed, or on order aircraft, consisting of 3,500 aircraft, engines, and helicopters. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Stock analysis

AerCap Holdings NV (AER) currently trades at $143.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $301.51, implying the stock looks roughly 52.6% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $448.82 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $143.00 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $77.86, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $160.64 (bear) to $406.40 (bull), the price of $143.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

AerCap Holdings NV reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was $3.8B in FY2025, compounding +39.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $25.2B · P/E ratio 6.3 · P/S ratio 2.88 · EPS (TTM) $22.78 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 45.8% · Return on equity 22.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 111%, AER screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $160.64 Fair Value $301.51 Bull $406.40
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($15.51 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV n/a n/a $25.79 68
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a $25.79 68
Growth-Adj P/E $314.17 $448.82 $583.47 67
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $161.74 $746.08 $1,024 64
Lynch FV $196.30 $280.43 $364.56 61
PEG = 1.0 $196.30 $280.43 $364.56 57
EPV n/a n/a $25.79 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $11.21 $23.30 $36.96 66
DDM Multi-Stage $11.21 $19.65 $24.45 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $374.62 $499.50 $624.37 63
P/S Multiple $77.90 $103.86 $129.83 58
P/B Multiple $303.26 $404.35 $505.44 55
EV/EBIT $76.54 $191.02 $305.50 61
EV/EBITDA $159.41 $301.51 $443.62 64
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $58.10 $77.86 $116.20 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $161.75 $229.27 $1,288 64
ROIC Compounder n/a n/a $25.79 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $314.17 $448.82 $583.47 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 64
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 10
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 71
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 65
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 60/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+21.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23% vs 15%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.51% → 52%

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 94 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +107% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 45% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 61% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.38× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 6.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.26× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.67× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 13.5× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.80× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 58
FUTURE (revenue growth)40 · sector 28
PAST (return on equity)88 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)19 · sector 45

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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United Rentals, Inc URI $989.13 $367.77 −63%
Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB $72.35 $65.76 −9%
U-Haul Holding UHAL $63.32 $7.57 −88%
Ryder System, Inc R $237.96 $99.68 −58%
Element Fleet Management Corp EFN C$24.80 C$21.07 −15%
BOC Aviation Limited 2588 HK$71.60 HK$146.01 +104%
GATX Corporation GATX $177.63 $128.33 −28%
Avis Budget Group CAR $115.24 $158.94 +38%
WillScot Holdings WSC $18.31 $43.19 +136%
EquipmentShare.com Inc EQPT $18.37 $3.91 −79%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AerCap Holdings NV Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AER

Frequently asked questions

Is AerCap Holdings NV (AER) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $301.51 versus a price of $143.00, about +111% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AER?
Our model-based fair value for AerCap Holdings NV is $301.51 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $143.00.
What is the quality score of AER?
AerCap Holdings NV has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $301.51 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $160.64, optimistic scenario $406.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AerCap Holdings NV stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $301.51, about +111% upside versus a price of $143.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $160.64, optimistic scenario $406.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
AerCap Holdings NV reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does AerCap Holdings NV pay a dividend?
AerCap Holdings NV currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AerCap Holdings NV it is $301.51 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $143.00. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AerCap Holdings NV stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, AER trades below its calculated fair value: price $143.00, fair value $301.51, a gap of about +111% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AER?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($143.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($301.51). For AerCap Holdings NV the two are $158.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AerCap Holdings NV worth?
The market values AerCap Holdings NV at about $25.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $143.00; our models calculate a fair value of $301.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AER?
Our models span a range for AerCap Holdings NV: cautious scenario $160.64, base $301.51, optimistic $406.40 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $143.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AER?
AerCap Holdings NV trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.3 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $301.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 1.3, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 13.5.
What is the PEG ratio of AER?
The PEG ratio of AerCap Holdings NV is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
Balance-sheet figures for AerCap Holdings NV (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 22.1%, debt of 2.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AER from its 52-week high?
AerCap Holdings NV trades at $143.00, about 7% below its 52-week high of $154.10 and 37% above the low of $104.62 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $301.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AerCap Holdings NV?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, U-Haul Holding, Ryder System, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AerCap Holdings NV stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $143.00, calculated fair value $301.51 (+111%), Quality Score 56/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AER calculated?
We run AerCap Holdings NV through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $301.51, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AerCap Holdings NV currently trades 111 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $143.00. Our model-based fair value is $301.51, about +111% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AerCap Holdings NV right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($160.64). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($160.64 to $406.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of AerCap Holdings NV (AER) come from?
Earnings per share at AerCap Holdings NV grew +12.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin +0.7 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of AerCap Holdings NV

How large is the market capitalisation of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
The market capitalisation of AerCap Holdings NV is $25.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AerCap Holdings NV is 2.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
Earnings per share at AerCap Holdings NV are $22.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
The dividend yield of AerCap Holdings NV is 0.9% (payout 5.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
The net margin of AerCap Holdings NV is 45.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AerCap Holdings NV is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AerCap Holdings NV is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
The operating margin of AerCap Holdings NV is 60.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
Revenue at AerCap Holdings NV is growing +7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AerCap Holdings NV (AER)?
Earnings per share at AerCap Holdings NV are growing +42.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AerCap Holdings NV (AER) generate?
The free cash flow of AerCap Holdings NV is −$681M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AerCap Holdings NV (AER) carry?
The net debt of AerCap Holdings NV is $42.1B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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