AerCap Holdings (AER) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $23.2B
AerCap Holdings
AER · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +2.8% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 94% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($159.41). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide ($159.41 to $443.62). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.02 – $155.24 · fair‑value band $159.41 – $443.62 · the $155.24 price screens below the $301.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
AerCap Holdings (AER) currently trades at $155.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $301.51, implying the stock looks roughly 94.2% undervalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, AerCap Holdings generated revenue of $8.7B at a net margin of 45.2%. Revenue grew 7.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.1%. Net debt stands at $42.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $159.41 (bear case) to $443.62 (bull case); at $155.24, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -21% fair-value upside, at 94%, AER screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($437.06) versus Dividend Discount ($19.65). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally.
Full company description
AerCap Holdings N.V. engages in the lease, financing, sale, and management of commercial flight equipment in the United States, China, and internationally. The company engages in aircraft and engine asset management services, such as remarketing aircraft and engines for lease or sale; collecting rental and supplemental maintenance rent payments, monitoring aircraft maintenance, monitoring and enforcing contract compliance, and accepting delivery and redelivery of aircraft and engines; conducting ongoing lessee financial performance reviews. Its aircraft and engine asset management services also include periodically inspecting the leased aircraft and engines; coordinating technical modifications to aircraft to meet new lessee requirements; conducting restructuring negotiations in connection with lease defaults; repossessing aircraft and engines; arranging and monitoring insurance coverage; registering and de-registering aircraft; arranging for aircraft and engine valuations; and providing market research services. In addition, the company provides corporate administrative services comprising accounting, and corporate secretarial services consisting of the preparation of budgets and financial statements; and cash management services, including treasury services, such as the financing, refinancing, hedging, and ongoing cash management of companies. Further, it offers airframe and engine parts and supply chain solutions to airlines; maintenance, repair, and overhaul service providers; and aircraft parts distributors. The company has a portfolio of owned, managed, or on order aircraft, consisting of 3,500 aircraft, engines, and helicopters. AerCap Holdings N.V. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AerCap Holdings reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +15.6%/yr. Reported net income was $3.8B in FY2025, compounding +39.1%/yr from FY2021.
Watch AER: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Notable ETF Inflow Detected - EFV, NBIS, AER, TIGO
- AER or WAB: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
- AerCap (AER) Stock Looks Undervalued Based On Cash Flow And Earnings
- AerCap Holdings NV (AER) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Asset Sales, Raised ...
Peer Group
Rental & Leasing Services · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Rental & Leasing Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Rental & Leasing Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Rentals, Inc URI | $1,045 | $449.86 | -57% |
| Sunbelt Rentals Holdings SUNB | $73.41 | $65.76 | -10% |
| U-Haul Holding UHAL | $67.35 | $7.21 | -89% |
| Ryder System, Inc R | $273.06 | $111.57 | -59% |
| Localiza Rent a Car S.A RENT3 | R$40.35 | R$37.01 | -8% |
| Element Fleet Management Corp EFN | C$29.83 | C$15.06 | -50% |
| BOC Aviation Limited 2588 | HK$77.40 | HK$18.61 | -76% |
| GATX Corporation GATX | $178.48 | $140.90 | -21% |
| Avis Budget Group CAR | $156.35 | $157.38 | +1% |
| WillScot Holdings WSC | $27.25 | $43.19 | +58% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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