Ryder System Inc (R) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ryder System Inc stock $161, price $283, that is 43.0% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $56.67 – $285.58 · fair‑value band $49.55 – $293.77 · the $283.12 price screens above the $161.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Ryder System, Inc. operates as a logistics and transportation company worldwide.
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It operates through three segments: Fleet Management Solutions (FMS), Supply Chain Solutions (SCS), and Dedicated Transportation Solutions (DTS). The FMS segment offers full-service leasing and leasing with flexible maintenance options; commercial vehicle rental; maintenance services; digital and technology support services; fuel services; and fuel planning and tax reporting, cards, and monitoring services, and centralized billing, as well as sells used vehicles through its retail sales centers and www.ryder.com/used-trucks website.
The DTS segment offers transportation, vehicles, drivers, outing and scheduling, fleet design, safety, regulatory compliance, risk management and technology and communication systems support.
The SCS segment comprises distribution management services, such as coordinating warehousing and transportation for inbound and outbound material flows; managing import and export for international shipments; coordinating just-in-time replenishment of component parts to manufacturing and final assembly; and offering shipment delivery to distribution centers or end delivery points, as well as e-commerce fulfillment.
This segment also offers dedicated transportation; transportation management and brokerage; e-commerce and last mile; and contract manufacturing and contract packaging. The company was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Coral Gables, Florida.
Stock analysis
Ryder System Inc (R) currently trades at $283.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $161.31, 43% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $225.98 per share, and 3 of the 25 models we run sit above the $283.12 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $26.09, and 22 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $49.55 (bear) to $293.77 (bull), the price of $283.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 1993: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 1993.
Ryder System Inc reported revenue of $12.7B in FY2025 versus $9.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was $499M in FY2025, compounding −1.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $11.0B Large · P/E ratio 21.6 · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) $13.13 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 4.0% · Return on equity 17.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at −43%, R screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$49.55Fair Value $161.31Bull$293.77
Price $283.12 · Downside -43.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($7.86 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $13.9M and none bought.
SaleThomas Michael ReganEVP of DTS2× since Feb 13, 2026: 3,903 shares, avg. $271.26$1.1MNov 2, 2026
SaleThomas M. HavensPresident, FMS2× since Feb 18, 2026: 18,071 shares, avg. $240.36$4.3MOct 30, 2026
SaleCristina Gallo-AquinoEVP and CFO1,238 shares at $276.85$342,740Oct 29, 2026
SaleRobert E SanchezDirector2× since Feb 24, 2026: 76,393 shares, avg. $249.74$19.1MOct 28, 2026
SaleRobert D FatovicEVP, CLO & Corp. Secretary3× since Feb 17, 2026: 26,640 shares, avg. $225.53$6.0MMay 29, 2026
SaleSanford J. HodesSVP, C Procur Of, Corp Dev Of2× since Feb 17, 2026: 11,122 shares, avg. $212.40$2.4MMay 28, 2026
SaleLuis P Nieto JrDirector720 shares at $235.79$169,769May 4, 2026
SaleJohn J. DiezPresident and COO9,632 shares at $222.20$2.1MFeb 25, 2026
SaleJohn S. SensingPresident, Global SCS & DTS30,110 shares at $220.36$6.6MFeb 19, 2026
SaleRajeev RavindranEVP & CIO2× since Feb 13, 2026: 17,063 shares, avg. $213.29$3.6MFeb 19, 2026
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 1993: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 1993.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Per share before 1993divided by the spin-off factor 1.1534
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.2% vs 9.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+21.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.8% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Ryder's large managed fleet supports steadier remarketing earnings via expanded used truck centers when lease and rental demand softens, yet limited competitive advantages and elevated debt constrain overall quality.
Main risk: Loss of or reduced business from a small number of large customers could reduce revenue and margins in the supply chain solutions and dedicated transportation segments.
Bull case: Ryder could further diversify its customer base through targeted acquisitions and expanded integrated offerings to lessen reliance on any single client group.
Bear case: If several major customers reduce or terminate contracts, revenue and margins in the higher-margin supply chain and dedicated segments could decline sharply.
Ryder has opened additional used truck centers in northern New Jersey to strengthen access near busy ports and freight routes. This supports remarketing from its large managed fleet as a steadier earnings contributor when lease and rental demand stays soft. Will the used vehicle segment deliver more durable growth than the cyclical pressures in core transportation services?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 86 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ryder System Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/R
Frequently asked questions
Is Ryder System Inc (R) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $161.31 versus a price of $283.12, about 43% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of R?
Our model-based fair value for Ryder System Inc is $161.31 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $283.12.
What is the quality score of R?
Ryder System Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ryder System Inc (R)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $161.31 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $49.55, optimistic scenario $293.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ryder System Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $161.31, about 43% lower versus a price of $283.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $49.55, optimistic scenario $293.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ryder System Inc (R)?
Ryder System Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $13.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Ryder System Inc pay a dividend?
Ryder System Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.36% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ryder System Inc (R)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ryder System Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +21.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of R use?
Our models discount Ryder System Inc at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.05, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ryder System Inc that is +21.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ryder System Inc (R) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ryder System Inc grew +8.5 % a year. The price currently implies +21.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ryder System Inc (R) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ryder System Inc (+21.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ryder System Inc (R)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.17 %: that much free cash flow Ryder System Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ryder System Inc (R)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ryder System Inc it is $161.31 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $283.12. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ryder System Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, R trades above its calculated fair value: price $283.12, fair value $161.31, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of R?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($283.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($161.31). For Ryder System Inc the two are $121.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ryder System Inc worth?
The market values Ryder System Inc at about $11.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $283.12; our models calculate a fair value of $161.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about R?
Our models span a range for Ryder System Inc: cautious scenario $49.55, base $161.31, optimistic $293.77 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $283.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of R?
Ryder System Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $161.31 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2017, FY2018, FY2023 ex one-offs: 10.5. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 3.6, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
What is the PEG ratio of R?
The PEG ratio of Ryder System Inc is 0.86 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ryder System Inc (R)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ryder System Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 17.2%, debt of 2.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is R from its 52-week high?
Ryder System Inc trades at $283.12, about 1% below its 52-week high of $285.58 and 76% above the low of $160.52 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $161.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ryder System Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ryder System Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $283.12, calculated fair value $161.31 (−43%), Quality Score 52/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of R calculated?
We run Ryder System Inc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $161.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Ryder System Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ryder System Inc (R)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $283.12. Our model-based fair value is $161.31, about 43% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ryder System Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($49.55 to $293.77). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Ryder System Inc (R) come from?
Earnings per share at Ryder System Inc grew +8.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ryder System Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ryder System Inc (R)?
The market capitalisation of Ryder System Inc is $11.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ryder System Inc (R)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ryder System Inc is 0.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ryder System Inc (R)?
Earnings per share at Ryder System Inc are $13.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ryder System Inc (R)?
The dividend yield of Ryder System Inc is 1.4% (payout 29.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ryder System Inc (R)?
The net margin of Ryder System Inc is 4.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ryder System Inc (R)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ryder System Inc is 17.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ryder System Inc (R)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ryder System Inc is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ryder System Inc (R)?
The operating margin of Ryder System Inc is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ryder System Inc (R)?
Revenue at Ryder System Inc is growing +8.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ryder System Inc (R)?
Earnings per share at Ryder System Inc are growing +25.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ryder System Inc (R) carry?
The net debt of Ryder System Inc is $8.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026