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Air Industries Group (AIRI) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $14.9M

AI Air Industries Group logo Air Industries Group AIRI · US
Price$2.63
Fair Value$1.63
Upside-38.0%
Quality22/100
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Weak Growth
Loss-making · -2.8% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
Narrow moat 8/100
Evidence: Low Range $0.7735 – $3.36 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026

From 2 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Share price −12.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 38% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($0.7735 to $3.36). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$14.00 $2.61 Fair Value $1.63 Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.61 – $14.00 · fair‑value band $0.7735 – $3.36 · the $2.63 price screens above the $1.63 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.

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Analysis

Air Industries Group (AIRI) currently trades at $2.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.63, implying the stock looks roughly 38.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Air Industries Group generated revenue of $47.4M at a net margin of -2.8%. Revenue declined 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.8%. Net debt stands at $30.1M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $0.7735 (bear case) to $3.36 (bull case); at $2.63, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -38%, AIRI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA $5.93 $7.96 $9.99 54
NCAV (Graham) $1.98 $2.65 $3.96 50
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $5.93 $7.96 $9.99 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.98 $2.65 $3.96 50

Widest divergence: Multiples ($7.96) versus Asset-Based ($2.65). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) $47.4M
Revenue growth (YoY) -4.4%
Net margin -2.8%
Return on equity -7.8%
Free cash flow −$4.7M FY2025
Operating margin -4.9%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) $-0.2500
Net debt $30.1M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 22/100

Of which business quality 24 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 36
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 14
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 17
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Air Industries Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of precision components and assemblies for defense and aerospace industry in the United States.

Full company description

Air Industries Group, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of precision components and assemblies for defense and aerospace industry in the United States. It offers actuators, arresting gears, aerostructures, aircraft structures, chaff pod assemblies, machining and milling solutions, cylinders, drag beams and braces, flight controls, flight safety components, integrated assemblies, landing gears, large diameter turn-mills, submarine valves, thrust struts, engine mounts, and turbine engine components and weldments for aircraft jet engines, ground turbines, and other complex machines. Air Industries Group was founded in 1941 and is based in Bay Shore, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Air Industries Group reported revenue of $47.9M in FY2025 versus $58.9M in FY2021, a compound −5.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.3M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 3/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$47.9M
Latest YoY
−13.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.9%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.3%
Revenue −5.0%/yr
FY21 $58.9M
FY22 $53.2M
FY23 $51.5M
FY24 $55.1M
FY25 $47.9M
Net income
FY21 $1.6M
FY22 −$1.1M
FY23 −$2.1M
FY24 −$1.4M
FY25 −$1.3M

AIRI screens 38% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Air Industries Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIRI

Peer Group

Aerospace & Defense · 226 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −38% · Above median
Return on assets -0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -5% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -4% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.08× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.78× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.31× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 46
PAST 0 · sector 38
HEALTH 96 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 15

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
General Electric Company GE $381.22 $116.71 -69%
RTX Corporation RTX $195.93 $88.37 -55%
Airbus SE 1AIR €213.25 €86.20 -60%
The Boeing Company BA $217.11 $48.20 -78%
China CSSC Holdings 600150 ¥34.31 ¥21.90 -36%
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 466,000 KRW 272,966 KRW -41%
Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 967,000 KRW 573,468 KRW -41%
ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS 337.50 TRY 130.70 TRY -61%
Saab AB SAABB kr 520.40 kr 212.84 -59%
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG kr 277.50 kr 106.93 -61%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Air Industries Group (AIRI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.63 versus a price of $2.63, about −38% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIRI?
Our model-based fair value for Air Industries Group is $1.63 (as of Jul 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is $2.63.
What is the quality score of AIRI?
Air Industries Group has a Quality Score of 22/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Air Industries Group (AIRI)?
Air Industries Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $47.4M (latest available figure, as of Jul 24, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AIRI?
The net profit margin of Air Industries Group is about -2.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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