Alico Inc (ALCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Alico Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $14.56 · Strongly overvalued (−63%)
!Quality 49/100
!Weak Growth(revenue 5y −13.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -115.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.51% dividend yield
!Trails peers(2/13)
!Narrow moat20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.19 – $44.46 · fair‑value band $10.70 – $19.68 · the $39.56 price screens above the $14.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Alico, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agribusiness and land management company in the United States. It engages in the grazing and hunting leasing, management, and/or conservation of unimproved native pastureland, and activities related to rock mining royalties and other business; and owning or leasing of improved farmland.
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Alico, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an agribusiness and land management company in the United States. It engages in the grazing and hunting leasing, management, and/or conservation of unimproved native pastureland, and activities related to rock mining royalties and other business; and owning or leasing of improved farmland. The company was incorporated in 1960 and is based in Fort Myers, Florida.
Stock analysis
Alico Inc (ALCO) currently trades at $39.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.56, implying the stock looks roughly 171.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $9.31 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $39.56 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $1.53, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $10.70 (bear) to $19.68 (bull), the price of $39.56 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Alico Inc reported revenue of $44.1M in FY2025 versus $109M in FY2021, a compound −20.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$147M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $302M · P/S ratio 18.2 · EPS (TTM) $−2.47 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin −115% · Return on equity −15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −24.4% · Operating margin −146%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −63%, ALCO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.53 to $22.84). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $10.70Fair Value $14.56Bull $19.68
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.8%
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.5% (2020) → −462.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+16.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 293 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−88% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets22% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−115% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−146% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−70% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.83× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.90× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)18.17× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF20.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA4.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)59· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)10· sector 48
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alico Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALCO
Frequently asked questions
Is Alico Inc (ALCO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.56 versus a price of $39.56, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALCO?
Our model-based fair value for Alico Inc is $14.56 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.56.
What is the quality score of ALCO?
Alico Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alico Inc (ALCO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.56 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.70, optimistic scenario $19.68. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alico Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.56, about −63% upside versus a price of $39.56 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.70, optimistic scenario $19.68. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
Alico Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Alico Inc pay a dividend?
Alico Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alico Inc (ALCO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alico Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +16.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -13.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALCO use?
Our models discount Alico Inc at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alico Inc that is +16.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alico Inc (ALCO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alico Inc grew -13.8 % a year. The price currently implies +16.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alico Inc (ALCO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alico Inc (+16.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.84 %: that much free cash flow Alico Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alico Inc it is $14.56 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $39.56. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alico Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ALCO trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.56, fair value $14.56, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALCO?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.56). For Alico Inc the two are $25.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alico Inc worth?
The market values Alico Inc at about $302M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $39.56; our models calculate a fair value of $14.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALCO?
Our models span a range for Alico Inc: cautious scenario $10.70, base $14.56, optimistic $19.68 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $39.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alico Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −15.8%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALCO from its 52-week high?
Alico Inc trades at $39.56, about 12% below its 52-week high of $45.01 and 29% above the low of $30.77 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alico Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alico Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $39.56, calculated fair value $14.56 (−63%), Quality Score 49/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALCO calculated?
We run Alico Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Alico Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Alico Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.68). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($10.70 to $19.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alico Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
The market capitalisation of Alico Inc is $302M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alico Inc is 18.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
Earnings per share at Alico Inc are $−2.47. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
The dividend yield of Alico Inc is 0.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
The net margin of Alico Inc is −115% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alico Inc is −15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alico Inc is −24.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alico Inc (ALCO)?
The operating margin of Alico Inc is −146% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alico Inc (ALCO)?
Revenue at Alico Inc is growing −70.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alico Inc (ALCO)?
Earnings per share at Alico Inc are growing +335% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alico Inc (ALCO) carry?
The net debt of Alico Inc is $47.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026