Alfa Laval AB (ALFA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alfa Laval AB SEK 373, price SEK 561, upside -33.5%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 218.81 – kr 588.80 · fair‑value band kr 227.92 – kr 525.35 · the kr 560.60 price screens above the kr 373.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Alfa Laval AB (publ) provides heat transfer, separation, and fluid handling products and solutions worldwide. The company operates through three divisions: Energy, Food & Pharma, and Ocean.
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Alfa Laval AB (publ) provides heat transfer, separation, and fluid handling products and solutions worldwide. The company operates through three divisions: Energy, Food & Pharma, and Ocean. It offers ballast water management systems; oil/gas-fired steam and composite steam boilers, exhaust gas economizers, electric steam boilers, and exhaust gas steam boilers; and exhaust gas cleaning products, as well as decanters and separators. The company also provides sensing and control, cleaning validation, and condition monitoring automation products; hygienic fittings, hygienic tubes, ultrapure fittings, and ultrapure tubes; agitators, tank mixers, and powder mixers; and centrifugal pumps, circumferential piston pumps, rotary lobe pumps, twin screws, three screw pumps, gear pumps, and reciprocating pumps. In addition, it offers rotary jet heads, rotary spray heads, wall mounted cleaning devices for tank cleaning, and static spray balls; and tank covers and accessories, as well as valves. Further, the company provides plate heat exchangers, air cooled heat exchangers, scraped surface heat exchangers, and tubular heat exchangers. It serves energy and utilities, home and personal care, food, dairy and beverage, marine and transportation, pharma and biotech, and water and wastewater industries. Alfa Laval AB (publ) was founded in 1883 and is headquartered in Lund, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Alfa Laval AB (ALFA) currently trades at kr 560.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 373.01, implying the stock looks roughly 50.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of kr 373.01 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 560.60 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 70.37, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 227.92 (bear) to kr 525.35 (bull), the price of kr 560.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Alfa Laval AB reported revenue of 69.7B SEK in FY2025 versus 40.9B SEK in FY2021, a compound +14.2%/yr. Reported net income was 8.3B SEK in FY2025, compounding +14.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 232B SEK (≈ $23.4B) · P/E ratio 28.3 · P/S ratio 3.36 · EPS (TTM) kr 19.80 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 11.9% · Return on equity 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −33%, ALFA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 227.92Fair Value kr 373.01Bull kr 525.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 7.88 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.93/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.8% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12% vs 11%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 18%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.8% a year for the price and +4.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 832 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)28.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B5.34× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)3.35× · Pricier than median
P/FCF3.8× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA17.2× · Pricier than median
PEG3.23× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)73· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)32· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alfa Laval AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALFA
Frequently asked questions
Is Alfa Laval AB (ALFA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 373.01 versus a price of kr 560.60, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALFA?
Our model-based fair value for Alfa Laval AB is kr 373.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 560.60.
What is the quality score of ALFA?
Alfa Laval AB has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 373.01 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 227.92, optimistic scenario kr 525.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alfa Laval AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 373.01, about −33% upside versus a price of kr 560.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 227.92, optimistic scenario kr 525.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
Alfa Laval AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 69.1B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Alfa Laval AB pay a dividend?
Alfa Laval AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alfa Laval AB would have to grow free cash flow by +17.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALFA use?
Our models discount Alfa Laval AB at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.80, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alfa Laval AB that is +17.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alfa Laval AB (ALFA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alfa Laval AB grew +10.9 % a year. The price currently implies +17.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alfa Laval AB (+17.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.66 %: that much free cash flow Alfa Laval AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alfa Laval AB it is kr 373.01 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 560.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alfa Laval AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALFA trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 560.60, fair value kr 373.01, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALFA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 560.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 373.01). For Alfa Laval AB the two are kr 187.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alfa Laval AB worth?
The market values Alfa Laval AB at about 232B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 560.60; our models calculate a fair value of kr 373.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALFA?
Our models span a range for Alfa Laval AB: cautious scenario kr 227.92, base kr 373.01, optimistic kr 525.35 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 560.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALFA?
Alfa Laval AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 373.01 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.2, P/B 5.3, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 17.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ALFA?
The PEG ratio of Alfa Laval AB is 3.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alfa Laval AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.3%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALFA from its 52-week high?
Alfa Laval AB trades at kr 560.60, about 5% below its 52-week high of kr 588.80 and 34% above the low of kr 417.63 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 373.01 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alfa Laval AB?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alfa Laval AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 560.60, calculated fair value kr 373.01 (−33%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALFA calculated?
We run Alfa Laval AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 373.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alfa Laval AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 560.60. Our model-based fair value is kr 373.01, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alfa Laval AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 525.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 227.92 to kr 525.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA) come from?
Earnings per share at Alfa Laval AB grew +10.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.0 %, EBIT margin +3.3 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alfa Laval AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
The market capitalisation of Alfa Laval AB is 232B SEK (≈ $23.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alfa Laval AB is 3.36 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
Earnings per share at Alfa Laval AB are kr 19.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
The dividend yield of Alfa Laval AB is 1.6% (payout 45.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
The net margin of Alfa Laval AB is 11.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alfa Laval AB is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alfa Laval AB is 10.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
The operating margin of Alfa Laval AB is 17.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
Revenue at Alfa Laval AB is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alfa Laval AB (ALFA)?
Earnings per share at Alfa Laval AB are growing −4.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alfa Laval AB (ALFA) carry?
The net debt of Alfa Laval AB is 13.9B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026