American Airlines Group (AAL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $11.2B
American Airlines Group
AAL · US
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from $3.52 to $7.04 (+100.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −6.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (49/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.07 – $25.82 · fair‑value band $5.02 – $8.82 · the $16.03 price screens above the $7.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 12, 2026.
Analysis
American Airlines Group (AAL) currently trades at $16.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.04, implying the stock looks roughly 56.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, American Airlines Group generated revenue of $56.0B at a net margin of 0.4%. Revenue grew 10.8% year over year. Net debt stands at $34.3B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 44.9. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.02 (bear case) to $8.82 (bull case); at $16.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 40% fair-value upside, at -56%, AAL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($78.36) versus Earnings-Based ($0.9400). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific.
Full company description
American Airlines Group Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a network air carrier in the United States, Latin America, Atlantic, and Pacific. The company provides scheduled air transportation services for passengers and cargo through its hubs in Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas/Fort Worth, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Phoenix, and Washington, D.C., as well as through partner gateways in London, Doha, Madrid, Seattle/Tacoma, Sydney, and Tokyo. It also operates a mainline fleet of 1,013 aircraft. The company was formerly known as AMR Corporation and changed its name to American Airlines Group Inc. in December 2013. American Airlines Group Inc. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
American Airlines Group reported revenue of $54.6B in FY2025 versus $29.9B in FY2021, a compound +16.3%/yr. Reported net income was $111M in FY2025.
AAL screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →
Peer Group
Airlines · 60 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL | $84.17 | $118.24 | +40% |
| United Airlines Holdings UAL | $120.97 | $175.62 | +45% |
| Ryanair Holdings RYA | €25.47 | €41.26 | +62% |
| Southwest Airlines Co LUV | $47.56 | $14.76 | -69% |
| InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO | ₹5,249 | ₹3,704 | -29% |
| Singapore Airlines Limited C6L | 7.60 SGD | 7.89 SGD | +4% |
| Air China Limited 601111 | ¥5.97 | ¥7.16 | +20% |
| LATAM Airlines Group LTM | $54.87 | $106.79 | +95% |
| Deutsche Lufthansa AG 1LHA | €9.98 | €15.60 | +56% |
| China Southern Airlines Company 600029 | ¥4.99 | ¥1.28 | -74% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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