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Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Aluminum Corporation $1.83, price $0.98, upside +86.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Some data
Sep 29, 2026
Aluminum Corporation
ALMMF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $1.83 · Strongly undervalued (+86.7%)
✓Quality 61/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.0% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓22.3% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 50/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1532 – $1.88 · fair‑value band $1.37 – $2.28 · the $0.9800 price screens below the $1.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the exploration and mining of bauxite, coal, and other resources in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Alumina, Primary Aluminum, Energy, Marketing, and Corporate and Other Operating.
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Aluminum Corporation of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, primarily engages in the exploration and mining of bauxite, coal, and other resources in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through five segments: Alumina, Primary Aluminum, Energy, Marketing, and Corporate and Other Operating. The Alumina segment mines for and purchases bauxite and other raw materials; refines bauxite into alumina; and sells alumina, as well as produces and sells refined alumina, gallium, and multi-form alumina bauxite. Its Primary Aluminum segment procures alumina and other raw materials, auxiliary materials, and electricity power; and produces and sells carbon, aluminum alloy, and other electrolytic aluminum products. The Energy segment mines for coal deposits; generates and sells electricity using thermal, wind, and solar power sources to regional power grid corporations; and manufactures power related equipment. Its Marketing segment trades in alumina, primary aluminum, aluminum fabrication products, other non-ferrous metal products, coal products, and raw and supplemental materials; and provides logistics and transport services. The Corporate and Other Operating segment provides research and development services; and engages in other aluminum-related business activities. The company is involved in the acquisition, manufacturing, and distribution of bauxite mines and limestone ore; engineering project; thermoelectric supply and investment management; and import and export activities, as well as manufacturing and distribution of anode and cathode carbon products. Aluminum Corporation of China Limited was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF) currently trades at $0.9800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.83, implying the stock looks roughly 46.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $3.24 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $0.9800 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.4400, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.37 (bear) to $2.28 (bull), the price of $0.9800 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Aluminum Corporation reported revenue of 235B CNY in FY2025 versus 299B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.8%/yr. Reported net income was 12.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding +21.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $22.0B · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) $0.1300 · Net margin 5.3% · Return on equity 20.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% · Operating margin 21.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 48% fair-value upside, at 87%, ALMMF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.37
Fair Value $1.83
Bull $2.28
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$2.11
$3.36
$5.28
77
Growth DCF
$2.14
$3.24
$4.83
75
EPV
$1.98
$2.32
$2.62
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$2.11
$3.36
$5.28
77
Owner Earnings
$1.60
$2.56
$4.04
73
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.04
$3.32
$4.96
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.19
$3.61
$5.27
72
5Y P/E Exit
$1.49
$2.29
$3.13
69
10Y Revenue Exit
$1.98
$3.16
$4.76
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.14
$3.36
$5.00
66
10Y P/E Exit
$1.69
$2.44
$3.35
62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.7300
$2.36
$3.16
62
Lynch FV
$0.5300
$0.7500
$0.9800
59
PEG = 1.0
$0.5300
$0.7500
$0.9800
55
EPV
$1.98
$2.32
$2.62
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.37
$1.83
$2.29
63
P/S Multiple
$1.37
$1.83
$2.29
58
P/B Multiple
$1.37
$1.83
$2.29
55
EV/EBIT
$2.58
$3.46
$4.33
66
EV/EBITDA
$2.51
$3.37
$4.22
67
EV/Revenue
$2.09
$3.01
$3.93
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.3300
$0.4400
$0.6500
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$2.14
$3.24
$4.83
75
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.04
$3.32
$4.81
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.7000
$0.8900
$1.37
72
ROIC Compounder
$2.12
$2.67
$3.29
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$1.18
$1.69
$2.19
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
61/100
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Profitability
49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
12
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
22
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+60.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+60.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.70.5% vs 45.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 12%
2025 sits 83% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.9% a year for the price and −0.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+12.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−2.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)−1.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)−1.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)−0.8%
Watch ALMMF, get fair value alerts →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (44 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.
- Aluminum Corp of China Ltd's Dividend Analysis
- Aluminum Extrusion Market worth $166.65 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 7.0%, says MarketsandMarkets™
- Chinalco, Rio Tinto to Buy Control of Brazilian Aluminum Maker
Compare Aluminum Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥16.11 | ¥43.06 | +167% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$21.16 | HK$57.03 | +170% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹977.00 | ₹1,026 | +5% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 80.10 | kr 58.10 | −27% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 7.46 MYR | 8.21 MYR | +10% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥26.03 | ¥38.55 | +48% |
| Alcoa Corporation AA | $41.97 | $40.16 | −4% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.72 | ¥32.01 | +24% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥12.11 | ¥35.21 | +191% |
| Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 | ¥4.61 | ¥7.57 | +64% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.83 versus a price of $0.9800, about +87% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALMMF?
Our model-based fair value for Aluminum Corporation is $1.83 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.9800.
What is the quality score of ALMMF?
Aluminum Corporation has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.83 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.37, optimistic scenario $2.28. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aluminum Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.83, about +87% upside versus a price of $0.9800 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.37, optimistic scenario $2.28. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
Aluminum Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 244B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aluminum Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -10.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALMMF use?
Our models discount Aluminum Corporation at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aluminum Corporation that is -10.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aluminum Corporation grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies -10.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aluminum Corporation (-10.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.57 %: that much free cash flow Aluminum Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aluminum Corporation it is $1.83 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $0.9800. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aluminum Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, ALMMF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.9800, fair value $1.83, a gap of about +87% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALMMF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.9800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.83). For Aluminum Corporation the two are $0.8500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aluminum Corporation worth?
The market values Aluminum Corporation at about $22.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $0.9800; our models calculate a fair value of $1.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALMMF?
Our models span a range for Aluminum Corporation: cautious scenario $1.37, base $1.83, optimistic $2.28 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $0.9800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is ALMMF from its 52-week high?
Aluminum Corporation trades at $0.9800, about 48% below its 52-week high of $1.88 and 9% above the low of $0.9000 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aluminum Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, China Hongqiao Group, Hindalco Industries Limited, Norsk Hydro ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aluminum Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $0.9800, calculated fair value $1.83 (+87%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALMMF calculated?
We run Aluminum Corporation through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Aluminum Corporation currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.9800. Our model-based fair value is $1.83, about +87% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aluminum Corporation right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.37). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Aluminum Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
The market capitalisation of Aluminum Corporation is $22.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Aluminum Corporation is 9.8 (as of Jun 18, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aluminum Corporation is 0.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
Earnings per share at Aluminum Corporation are $0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
The net margin of Aluminum Corporation is 5.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aluminum Corporation is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aluminum Corporation is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
The operating margin of Aluminum Corporation is 21.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
Revenue at Aluminum Corporation is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF)?
Earnings per share at Aluminum Corporation are growing +56.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aluminum Corporation (ALMMF) carry?
The net debt of Aluminum Corporation is 40.2B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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