Alcoa Corporation (AA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $12.8B
Alcoa Corporation
AA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −3.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 31% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($22.02 to $65.82). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.28 – $90.80 · fair‑value band $22.02 – $65.82 · the $47.48 price screens above the $32.72 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Alcoa Corporation (AA) currently trades at $47.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.72, implying the stock looks roughly 31.1% overvalued today. We read business quality at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alcoa Corporation generated revenue of $12.7B at a net margin of 8.2%. Revenue declined 5.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.4%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $22.02 (bear case) to $65.82 (bull case); at $47.48, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 73% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 44% fair-value upside, at -31%, AA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($69.55) versus Dividend Discount ($5.28). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum.
Full company description
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company also offers aluminium powder and scrap and primary aluminum in the form of commodity grade ingot and value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets. In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alcoa Corporation reported revenue of $12.8B in FY2025 versus $12.4B in FY2021, a compound +0.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +27.9%/yr from FY2021.
AA screens 31% overvalued. Compare with Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Daily Dividend Report: AAPL,AMGN,HUN,BCC,AA,BWA
- Alcoa declares $0.10 dividend
- Alcoa Corporation Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
Peer Group
Aluminum · 83 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379 | ¥18.54 | ¥26.70 | +44% |
| China Hongqiao Group 1378 | HK$24.54 | HK$45.53 | +86% |
| Hindalco Industries Limited HINDALCO | ₹955.80 | ₹1,026 | +7% |
| Aluminum Corporation 601600 | ¥8.11 | ¥12.58 | +55% |
| Norsk Hydro ASA NHY | kr 84.96 | kr 58.10 | -32% |
| Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869 | 8.02 MYR | 3.88 MYR | -52% |
| Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807 | ¥25.12 | ¥29.68 | +18% |
| Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933 | ¥25.51 | ¥30.28 | +19% |
| Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532 | ¥11.99 | ¥21.86 | +82% |
| Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219 | ¥4.72 | ¥7.01 | +49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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