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Aeluma, Inc (ALMU) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Aeluma, Inc $2.36, price $13.12, upside -82.1%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · US · ISIN US00776X1090

AI Aeluma, Inc logo Thin data Oct 4, 2026

Aeluma, Inc

ALMU · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +184.7 %/yr in USD)
Fair value $2.36 · Strongly overvalued (−82.1%)
Quality 23/100
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (0/7)
Narrow moat 6/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$31.49 $2.00 Fair Value $2.36 Nov 2022 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

47‑month range $2.00 – $31.49 · fair‑value band $1.56 – $2.95 · the $13.12 price screens above the $2.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Aeluma, Inc. develops optoelectronic and electronic devices for sensing, communication, and computing applications in the United States. The company produces semiconductor materials and chips using compound semiconductors on diameter substrates that are used to manufacture mass market microelectronics.

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Aeluma, Inc. develops optoelectronic and electronic devices for sensing, communication, and computing applications in the United States. The company produces semiconductor materials and chips using compound semiconductors on diameter substrates that are used to manufacture mass market microelectronics. Its products are used in mobile, automotive, AI, defense and aerospace, communication, AR/VR, high-performance commuting, and quantum computing applications, as well as other electronic and optoelectronic devices, including lasers, transistors, and solar cells. Aeluma, Inc. was founded in 2019 and is headquartered in Goleta, California.

Stock analysis

Aeluma, Inc (ALMU) currently trades at $13.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.36, 82.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.56 (bear) to $2.95 (bull), the price of $13.12 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Aeluma, Inc reported revenue of $4.5M in FY2026 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$9.2M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $253M · P/S ratio 56.8 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5200 · Net margin −205% · Return on equity −24.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −57.3% · Operating margin −751% · Revenue (TTM) $4.5M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −82%, ALMU screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.56 Fair Value $2.36 Bull $2.95
Price $13.12 · Upside -82.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $1.47 $1.97 $2.95 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.47 $1.97 $2.95 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

Of which business quality 23 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 11
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 10
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 26/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+184.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2,849.8% (2023) → −228.3% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ALMU screens overvalued: fair value 82% below the price. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 334 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −82.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −15.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −55.8% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 56.81× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA $228.38 $198.56 −13%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM $459.20 $505.12 +10%
Broadcom Inc AVGO $351.19 $303.10 −14%
Micron Technology, Inc MU $1,075 $151.51 −86%
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD $611.76 $122.60 −80%
SK hynix Inc 000660 1,833,000 KRW 2,016,300 KRW +10%
Intel Corporation INTC $115.93 $33.67 −71%
Arm Holdings ARM $310.32 $44.44 −86%
MediaTek Inc 2454 5,285 TWD 3,142 TWD −41%
Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN $280.09 $81.75 −71%

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Aeluma, Inc · Fair Value
$2.36 −82%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aeluma, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALMU

Frequently asked questions

Is Aeluma, Inc (ALMU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.36 versus a price of $13.12, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALMU?
Our model-based fair value for Aeluma, Inc is $2.36 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.12.
What is the quality score of ALMU?
Aeluma, Inc has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.36 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.56, optimistic scenario $2.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aeluma, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.36, about −82% upside versus a price of $13.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.56, optimistic scenario $2.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
Aeluma, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.5M (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aeluma, Inc it is $2.36 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of $13.12. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Aeluma, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, ALMU trades above its calculated fair value: price $13.12, fair value $2.36, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALMU?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.36). For Aeluma, Inc the two are $10.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aeluma, Inc worth?
The market values Aeluma, Inc at about $253M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is $13.12; our models calculate a fair value of $2.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALMU?
Our models span a range for Aeluma, Inc: cautious scenario $1.56, base $2.36, optimistic $2.95 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price $13.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aeluma, Inc (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −24.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALMU from its 52-week high?
Aeluma, Inc trades at $13.12, about 58% below its 52-week high of $31.49 and 22% above the low of $10.73 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aeluma, Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aeluma, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price $13.12, calculated fair value $2.36 (−82%), Quality Score 23/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALMU calculated?
We run Aeluma, Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Aeluma, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $13.12. Our model-based fair value is $2.36, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aeluma, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.56 to $2.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Aeluma, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
The market capitalisation of Aeluma, Inc is $253M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aeluma, Inc is 56.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
Earnings per share at Aeluma, Inc are $−0.5200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
The net margin of Aeluma, Inc is −205% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aeluma, Inc is −24.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aeluma, Inc is −57.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
The operating margin of Aeluma, Inc is −751% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aeluma, Inc (ALMU)?
Revenue at Aeluma, Inc is growing −55.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +185%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Aeluma, Inc (ALMU) generate?
The free cash flow of Aeluma, Inc is −$3.3M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Aeluma, Inc (ALMU) hold?
Aeluma, Inc holds more cash than debt, $54.0M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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