ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 21, 2026: fair value of ANA Holdings Inc $47.17, price $17.94, upside +162.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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ANA Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Aviation Business, Aviation related business, Travel business, and Trading company business segments.
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ANA Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in Japan and internationally. It operates through Aviation Business, Aviation related business, Travel business, and Trading company business segments. The Air Transportation segment offers domestic and international passenger, cargo and mail, and other transportation services. The Aviation related business segment provides air transportation related services, such as airport handling, and maintenance services. Its Travel business segment provides travellers with transportation, accommodation and other related services for the travel products, and manages the itinerary for the travel products. The Trading company business segment import and export of aviation-related materials, stores, mail order sales, etc. The company was formerly known as All Nippon Airways Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ANA Holdings Inc. in April 2013. ANA Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 1920 and is headquartered in Minato, Japan.
Stock analysis
ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF) currently trades at $17.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.17, implying the stock looks roughly 62.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $50.55 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the $17.94 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.79, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $33.80 (bear) to $60.53 (bull), the price of $17.94 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ANA Holdings Inc reported revenue of ¥2.6T in FY2026 versus ¥1.0T in FY2022, a compound +25.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥170B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $9.3B · P/E ratio 8.9 · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) $2.01 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 163%, ALNPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $33.80Fair Value $47.17Bull $60.53
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+33.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+31.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.31.7% vs 3.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−64% → 9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.4% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+65.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.9% · Above median
Return on assets3.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.64× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
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Is ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $47.17 versus the last price from Aug 21, 2026 of $17.94, about +163% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALNPF?
Our model-based fair value for ANA Holdings Inc is $47.17 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 21, 2026): $17.94.
What is the quality score of ALNPF?
ANA Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $47.17 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $33.80, optimistic scenario $60.53. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ANA Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $47.17, about +163% upside versus the last price from Aug 21, 2026 of $17.94 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $33.80, optimistic scenario $60.53. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
ANA Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.5T (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does ANA Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
ANA Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.10% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ANA Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +28.5 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALNPF use?
Our models discount ANA Holdings Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.46, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ANA Holdings Inc that is -12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ANA Holdings Inc grew +28.5 % a year. The price currently implies -12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ANA Holdings Inc (-12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.62 %: that much free cash flow ANA Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ANA Holdings Inc it is $47.17 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $17.94. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ANA Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ALNPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $17.94, fair value $47.17, a gap of about +163% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALNPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($47.17). For ANA Holdings Inc the two are $29.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ANA Holdings Inc worth?
The market values ANA Holdings Inc at about $9.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $17.94; our models calculate a fair value of $47.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALNPF?
Our models span a range for ANA Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $33.80, base $47.17, optimistic $60.53 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $17.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALNPF?
ANA Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $47.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.9, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
What is the PEG ratio of ALNPF?
The PEG ratio of ANA Holdings Inc is 3.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ANA Holdings Inc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 0.64 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to ANA Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ANA Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $17.94, calculated fair value $47.17 (+163%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALNPF calculated?
We run ANA Holdings Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $47.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ANA Holdings Inc currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 21, 2026 and stands at $17.94. Our model-based fair value is $47.17, about +163% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ANA Holdings Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($33.80). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF) come from?
Earnings per share at ANA Holdings Inc grew +4.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.5 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ANA Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
The market capitalisation of ANA Holdings Inc is $9.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ANA Holdings Inc is 0.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
Earnings per share at ANA Holdings Inc are $2.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
The dividend yield of ANA Holdings Inc is 2.1% (payout 18.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
The net margin of ANA Holdings Inc is 6.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ANA Holdings Inc is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ANA Holdings Inc is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
The operating margin of ANA Holdings Inc is 5.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
Revenue at ANA Holdings Inc is growing +18.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF)?
Earnings per share at ANA Holdings Inc are growing +50.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ANA Holdings Inc (ALNPF) carry?
The net debt of ANA Holdings Inc is ¥438B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026