Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $2.7B
Alarm.com Holdings
ALRM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +12.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 21% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($34.18 to $84.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $42.13 – $90.28 · fair‑value band $34.18 – $84.84 · the $57.53 price screens above the $45.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) currently trades at $57.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $45.57, implying the stock looks roughly 20.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Alarm.com Holdings generated revenue of $1.0B at a net margin of 12.4%. Revenue grew 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.8%. Net debt stands at $171M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $34.18 (bear case) to $84.84 (bull case); at $57.53, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -21%, ALRM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($77.51) versus Dividend Discount ($1.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for connected properties in North America and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other.
Full company description
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for connected properties in North America and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other. The company offers residential solutions, such as alarm transmission, smart signal, smart arming, and personal safety and awareness, as well as real-time alerts and always-on monitoring; video monitoring solutions, including video analytics, remote video monitoring, AI deterrence, video doorbell, intelligent integration, and cell connector; scenes, video analytics triggers, smart thermostat schedules, responsive savings, precision comfort, HVAC monitoring service, places feature, whole home water safety solution, and energy usage and solar monitoring solution. It also provides clean energy software and services SaaS platform; commercial grade video solutions, commercial video analytics, smarter access control, enterprise dashboard and multi-site management, connected fleet solution, energy savings, proactive protection for valuables and inventory, temperature monitoring, daily safeguard, and professionally supported and low cost of ownership solutions. In addition, the company offers OpenEye software comprising video surveillance as a service, cameras, recorders, and other peripherals designed for video applications; forensic video search, point-of sale system integration, customer site mapping, and large-scale camera deployments enterprise-level requirements; shooter detection systems; service provider portal, service dashboard, installation and support service provider solutions; and AI-powered enhancements to professional monitoring and false alarm reduction. Further, it provides business management services; sales, marketing, training services; and home builder program hardware and services. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tysons, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alarm.com Holdings reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $749M in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $133M in FY2025, compounding +26.2%/yr from FY2021.
ALRM screens 21% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: SaaS Revenue Surges 11% as ...
- Alarm.com raises 2026 outlook to $754.4M SaaS revenue while targeting 21% adjusted EBITDA margin exiting 2027
- Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates
- Alarm.com Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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