Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Alarm.com Holdings Inc $76.82, price $53.35, upside +44.0%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $42.13 – $90.28 · fair‑value band $51.74 – $99.86 · the $53.35 price screens below the $76.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for connected properties in North America and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other.
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Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for connected properties in North America and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other. The company offers residential solutions, such as alarm transmission, smart signal, smart arming, and personal safety and awareness, as well as real-time alerts and always-on monitoring; video monitoring solutions, including video analytics, remote video monitoring, AI deterrence, video doorbell, intelligent integration, and cell connector; scenes, video analytics triggers, smart thermostat schedules, responsive savings, precision comfort, HVAC monitoring service, places feature, whole home water safety solution, and energy usage and solar monitoring solution. It also provides clean energy software and services SaaS platform; commercial grade video solutions, commercial video analytics, smarter access control, enterprise dashboard and multi-site management, connected fleet solution, energy savings, proactive protection for valuables and inventory, temperature monitoring, daily safeguard, and professionally supported and low cost of ownership solutions. In addition, the company offers OpenEye software comprising video surveillance as a service, cameras, recorders, and other peripherals designed for video applications; forensic video search, point-of sale system integration, customer site mapping, and large-scale camera deployments enterprise-level requirements; shooter detection systems; service provider portal, service dashboard, installation and support service provider solutions; and AI-powered enhancements to professional monitoring and false alarm reduction. Further, it provides business management services; sales, marketing, training services; and home builder program hardware and services. The company was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tysons, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) currently trades at $53.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $76.82, implying the stock looks roughly 30.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $95.71 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $53.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.49, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $51.74 (bear) to $99.86 (bull), the price of $53.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Alarm.com Holdings Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $749M in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $133M in FY2025, compounding +26.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.1B · P/E ratio 22.1 · P/S ratio 2.90 · EPS (TTM) $2.41 · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 14.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 12.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at 44%, ALRM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $51.74Fair Value $76.82Bull $99.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +17.1% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+21.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 21%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 13%
2025 sits 52% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.2% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 710 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+44% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.58× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $76.82 versus a price of $53.35, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALRM?
Our model-based fair value for Alarm.com Holdings Inc is $76.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $53.35.
What is the quality score of ALRM?
Alarm.com Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $76.82 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $51.74, optimistic scenario $99.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alarm.com Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $76.82, about +44% upside versus a price of $53.35 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $51.74, optimistic scenario $99.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
Alarm.com Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Alarm.com Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +10.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ALRM use?
Our models discount Alarm.com Holdings Inc at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Alarm.com Holdings Inc that is +10.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Alarm.com Holdings Inc grew +10.4 % a year. The price currently implies +10.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Alarm.com Holdings Inc (+10.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.36 %: that much free cash flow Alarm.com Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alarm.com Holdings Inc it is $76.82 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $53.35. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alarm.com Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ALRM trades below its calculated fair value: price $53.35, fair value $76.82, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ALRM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($53.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($76.82). For Alarm.com Holdings Inc the two are $23.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alarm.com Holdings Inc worth?
The market values Alarm.com Holdings Inc at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $53.35; our models calculate a fair value of $76.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ALRM?
Our models span a range for Alarm.com Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $51.74, base $76.82, optimistic $99.86 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $53.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ALRM?
Alarm.com Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $76.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 3.7, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 16.7.
What is the PEG ratio of ALRM?
The PEG ratio of Alarm.com Holdings Inc is 1.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alarm.com Holdings Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 14.8%, debt of 0.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ALRM from its 52-week high?
Alarm.com Holdings Inc trades at $53.35, about 7% below its 52-week high of $57.60 and 27% above the low of $42.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $76.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alarm.com Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alarm.com Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $53.35, calculated fair value $76.82 (+44%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ALRM calculated?
We run Alarm.com Holdings Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $76.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Alarm.com Holdings Inc currently trades 44 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $53.35. Our model-based fair value is $76.82, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alarm.com Holdings Inc right now?
Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($51.74 to $99.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) come from?
Earnings per share at Alarm.com Holdings Inc grew +22.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.5 %, EBIT margin +3.1 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Alarm.com Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
The market capitalisation of Alarm.com Holdings Inc is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alarm.com Holdings Inc is 2.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
Earnings per share at Alarm.com Holdings Inc are $2.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
The net margin of Alarm.com Holdings Inc is 13.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alarm.com Holdings Inc is 14.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alarm.com Holdings Inc is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
The operating margin of Alarm.com Holdings Inc is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
Revenue at Alarm.com Holdings Inc is growing +11.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM)?
Earnings per share at Alarm.com Holdings Inc are growing −10.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) carry?
The net debt of Alarm.com Holdings Inc is $171M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026