Alsea, S.A. (ALSEA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · MX · Market cap 35.3B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from 46.54 MXN to 61.77 MXN (+32.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −7.6% over the past month.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (46.33 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (46.33 MXN to 118.61 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (12 months)
12‑month range 44.32 MXN – 60.03 MXN · fair‑value band 46.33 MXN – 118.61 MXN · the 44.41 MXN price screens below the 61.77 MXN fair value. As of Jul 12, 2026.
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Alsea, S.A. (ALSEA) currently trades at 44.41 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 61.77 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 39.1% undervalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alsea, S.A. generated revenue of 85.4B MXN at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.4%. Net debt stands at 28.3B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 46.33 MXN (bear case) to 118.61 MXN (bull case); at 44.41 MXN, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 39%, ALSEA screens cheaper than that median.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. operates restaurants in Latin America and Europe. It operates fast food, coffee shops, casual food, and family restaurants under the Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, PF Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Foster's Hollywood, Archies, Ginos, Vips, Ole Mole, and Clay Hear brands.
Full company description
Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. operates restaurants in Latin America and Europe. It operates fast food, coffee shops, casual food, and family restaurants under the Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, PF Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Foster's Hollywood, Archies, Ginos, Vips, Ole Mole, and Clay Hear brands. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alsea, S.A. reported revenue of 85.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 53.4B MXN in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B MXN in FY2025, compounding +27.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compass Group CPG | $0.3250 | $0.1900 | -42% |
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SRB | €93.81 | €35.83 | -62% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $28.18 | $14.95 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.74 | $59.42 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$102.19 | C$59.96 | -41% |
| Restaurant Brands International Limited RSTRF | $77.57 | $49.50 | -36% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc D1RI34 | R$263.92 | R$39.74 | -85% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $42.88 | $41.58 | -3% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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