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Alsea, S.A. (ALSEA) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · MX · Market cap 35.3B MXN

AS Alsea, S.A. ALSEA · MX
Price44.41 MXN
Fair Value61.77 MXN
Upside+39.1%
Quality57/100
Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 2.5% net margin
High debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Moderate moat 53/100
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Evidence: High Range 46.33 MXN – 118.61 MXN Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 12, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 18 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 12, 2026, revised from 46.54 MXN to 61.77 MXN (+32.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −7.6% over the past month.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (46.33 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (46.33 MXN to 118.61 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

60.03 MXN 44.32 MXN Fair Value 61.77 MXN Jul 2025 Jul 2026

12‑month range 44.32 MXN – 60.03 MXN · fair‑value band 46.33 MXN – 118.61 MXN · the 44.41 MXN price screens below the 61.77 MXN fair value. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Alsea, S.A. (ALSEA) currently trades at 44.41 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 61.77 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 39.1% undervalued today. We read business quality at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Alsea, S.A. generated revenue of 85.4B MXN at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.4%. Net debt stands at 28.3B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 46.33 MXN (bear case) to 118.61 MXN (bull case); at 44.41 MXN, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 39%, ALSEA screens cheaper than that median.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 85.4B MXN
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.3%
Net margin 2.5%
Return on equity 25.4%
Free cash flow 10.0B MXN FY2025
P/E ratio 17.4
More key figures
Operating margin 8.2%
EPS (TTM) 2.55 MXN
EPS growth (YoY) -60.7%
Net debt 28.3B MXN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 12, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100
Profitability 64
Quality Growth 62
Cashflow 68
Fin. Strength 11
Investment 85
Low Volatility 85
Momentum 27
52W Momentum 15
Net Issuance 91

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. operates restaurants in Latin America and Europe. It operates fast food, coffee shops, casual food, and family restaurants under the Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, PF Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Foster's Hollywood, Archies, Ginos, Vips, Ole Mole, and Clay Hear brands.

Full company description

Alsea, S.A.B. de C.V. operates restaurants in Latin America and Europe. It operates fast food, coffee shops, casual food, and family restaurants under the Domino's Pizza, Starbucks, Burger King, Chili's, PF Chang's, Italianni's, The Cheesecake Factory, Vips, Foster's Hollywood, Archies, Ginos, Vips, Ole Mole, and Clay Hear brands. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alsea, S.A. reported revenue of 85.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 53.4B MXN in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B MXN in FY2025, compounding +27.9%/yr from FY2021.

Revenue +12.5%/yr
FY21 53.4B MXN
FY22 68.8B MXN
FY23 74.8B MXN
FY24 79.0B MXN
FY25 85.4B MXN
Net income +27.9%/yr
FY21 835M MXN
FY22 1.7B MXN
FY23 3.0B MXN
FY24 768M MXN
FY25 2.2B MXN

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alsea, S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALSEA

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 85 / 23
FUTURE 2 / 19
PAST 100 / 14
HEALTH 0 / 97
DIVIDEND 0 / 58

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 12, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Compass Group CPG $0.3250 $0.1900 -42%
McDonald's Corporation MCDS C$24.01 C$10.84 -55%
Starbucks Corporation SRB €93.81 €35.83 -62%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $28.18 $14.95 -47%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $150.74 $59.42 -61%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR C$102.19 C$59.96 -41%
Restaurant Brands International Limited RSTRF $77.57 $49.50 -36%
Darden Restaurants, Inc D1RI34 R$263.92 R$39.74 -85%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $42.88 $41.58 -3%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $197.03 $104.89 -47%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alsea, S.A. (ALSEA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 61.77 MXN versus a price of 44.41 MXN, about +39% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ALSEA?
Our model-based fair value for Alsea, S.A. is 61.77 MXN (as of Jul 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 44.41 MXN.
What is the quality score of ALSEA?
Alsea, S.A. has a Quality Score of 57/100, measuring profitability, growth and balance-sheet strength from non-valuation factors.
What is the revenue of Alsea, S.A. (ALSEA)?
Alsea, S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 85.4B MXN (latest available figure, as of Jul 12, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALSEA?
The net profit margin of Alsea, S.A. is about 2.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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