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Ambra S.A (AMB) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · PL · Market cap 459M PLN

AS Ambra S.A AMB · WAR
Price18.44 PLN
Fair Value8.58 PLN
Upside-53.5%
Quality62/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 5.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
6.05% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (12/14)
Narrow moat 41/100
Evidence: Medium Range 6.43 PLN – 10.72 PLN Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from 37.27 PLN to 8.58 PLN (−77.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +2.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (10.72 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

29.15 PLN 15.16 PLN Fair Value 8.58 PLN Apr 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 15.16 PLN – 29.15 PLN · fair‑value band 6.43 PLN – 10.72 PLN · the 18.44 PLN price screens above the 8.58 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Ambra S.A (AMB) currently trades at 18.44 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 8.58 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 53.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Ambra S.A generated revenue of 912M PLN at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at 74.4M PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 6.43 PLN (bear case) to 10.72 PLN (bull case); at 18.44 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -53%, AMB screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 27.54 PLN 37.80 PLN 50.63 PLN 80
Residual Income 14.40 PLN 15.75 PLN 18.93 PLN 76
Rev-Margin DCF 29.43 PLN 46.30 PLN 65.69 PLN 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 27.37 PLN 39.20 PLN 54.98 PLN 38
Owner Earnings 15.70 PLN 22.31 PLN 31.12 PLN 31
5Y Revenue Exit 29.43 PLN 46.26 PLN 67.66 PLN 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 35.87 PLN 58.29 PLN 84.40 PLN 41
5Y P/E Exit 26.34 PLN 40.48 PLN 55.18 PLN 38
10Y Revenue Exit 27.46 PLN 41.71 PLN 60.70 PLN 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 32.01 PLN 49.34 PLN 72.36 PLN 37
10Y P/E Exit 26.46 PLN 38.05 PLN 52.00 PLN 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 12.07 PLN 37.69 PLN 50.14 PLN 54
Lynch FV 8.21 PLN 11.73 PLN 15.25 PLN 50
PEG = 1.0 8.21 PLN 11.73 PLN 15.25 PLN 46
EPV 23.44 PLN 26.50 PLN 29.06 PLN 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 12.25 PLN 22.08 PLN 30.40 PLN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 12.25 PLN 19.09 PLN 23.59 PLN 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 27.95 PLN 37.27 PLN 46.58 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 22.63 PLN 30.17 PLN 37.71 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 22.63 PLN 30.17 PLN 37.71 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 45.10 PLN 59.82 PLN 74.54 PLN 53
EV/EBITDA 46.83 PLN 62.13 PLN 77.43 PLN 54
EV/Revenue 32.46 PLN 45.97 PLN 59.47 PLN 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 8.51 PLN 11.41 PLN 17.03 PLN 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 27.54 PLN 37.80 PLN 50.63 PLN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 29.43 PLN 46.30 PLN 65.69 PLN 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 14.40 PLN 15.75 PLN 18.93 PLN 76
ROIC Compounder 24.50 PLN 29.52 PLN 35.13 PLN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 23.14 PLN 33.05 PLN 42.97 PLN 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (40.48 PLN) versus Asset-Based (11.41 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 912M PLN
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.5%
Net margin 5.4%
Return on equity 12.8%
Free cash flow 70.9M PLN FY2025
P/E ratio 9.3
More key figures
Operating margin -2.4%
EPS (TTM) 1.94 PLN
Dividend yield 6.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +16.3%
Net debt 74.4M PLN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 75
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 96
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Ambra S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, import, and distribution of grape wines in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania. It offers sparkling and carbonated wines, table and flavored wines, champagne type soft drinks, meads, and ciders, as well as other alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.

Full company description

Ambra S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, import, and distribution of grape wines in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania. It offers sparkling and carbonated wines, table and flavored wines, champagne type soft drinks, meads, and ciders, as well as other alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. The company offers its products under the CIN&CIN, DORATO, EL SOL, FRESCO, PLISKA, PICCOLO, CYDR LUBELSKI, WINIARNIA ZAMOJSKA, SLANTSCHEW BRJAG, ROBBY BUBBLE, ROSSIJSKOE IGRISTOE, FLY SEKT, ZAREA, MILCOV, CARPATEN, and CORRIDO brand names. It supplies its products to shops, distribution networks, and wholesalers, as well as offers products through its online store Winezja.pl. Ambra S.A. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. Ambra S.A. is a subsidiary of Schloss Wachenheim AG.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Ambra S.A reported revenue of 895M PLN in FY2025 versus 673M PLN in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was 44.7M PLN in FY2025, compounding −0.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
895M PLN
Latest YoY
−2.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.3%
Revenue +7.4%/yr
FY21 673M PLN
FY22 776M PLN
FY23 876M PLN
FY24 914M PLN
FY25 895M PLN
Net income −0.5%/yr
FY21 45.6M PLN
FY22 51.8M PLN
FY23 61.5M PLN
FY24 55.1M PLN
FY25 44.7M PLN
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +11.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.0 pp

of which total revenue +9.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp

EBIT margin +3.2 pp
Tax rate −1.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.6 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

AMB screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ambra S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMB

Peer Group

Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 62 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −54% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.1% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.29× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.14× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 0.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 17
FUTURE 23 · sector 0
PAST 51 · sector 17
HEALTH 99 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 100 · sector 61

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 ¥1,251 ¥1,238 -1%
Diageo plc DEON 1,487 MXN 1,239 MXN -17%
Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 ¥73.69 ¥48.44 -34%
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 ¥110.50 ¥185.80 +68%
Pernod Ricard SA RI €65.24 €76.68 +18%
Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 ¥83.12 ¥149.17 +79%
Brown-Forman Corporation BFA $26.60 $28.15 +6%
United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR ₹1,376 ₹440.56 -68%
Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 0.4450 SGD 0.6900 SGD +55%
Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 ¥38.08 ¥27.82 -27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ambra S.A (AMB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 17, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 8.58 PLN versus a price of 18.44 PLN, about −53% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMB?
Our model-based fair value for Ambra S.A is 8.58 PLN (as of Jul 17, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 18.44 PLN.
What is the quality score of AMB?
Ambra S.A has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Ambra S.A (AMB)?
Ambra S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 912M PLN (latest available figure, as of Jul 17, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AMB?
The net profit margin of Ambra S.A is about 5.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 5.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Ambra S.A pay a dividend?
Ambra S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.07% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 17, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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