Ambra SA (AMB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Ambra SA PLN 37.05, price PLN 19.10, upside +94.0%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 15.16 PLN – 29.15 PLN · fair‑value band 27.66 PLN – 46.58 PLN · the 19.10 PLN price screens below the 37.05 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Ambra S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, import, and distribution of grape wines in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania. It offers sparkling and carbonated wines, table and flavored wines, champagne type soft drinks, meads, and ciders, as well as other alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.
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Ambra S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, import, and distribution of grape wines in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania. It offers sparkling and carbonated wines, table and flavored wines, champagne type soft drinks, meads, and ciders, as well as other alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. The company offers its products under the CIN&CIN, DORATO, EL SOL, FRESCO, PLISKA, PICCOLO, CYDR LUBELSKI, WINIARNIA ZAMOJSKA, SLANTSCHEW BRJAG, ROBBY BUBBLE, ROSSIJSKOE IGRISTOE, FLY SEKT, ZAREA, MILCOV, CARPATEN, and CORRIDO brand names. It supplies its products to shops, distribution networks, and wholesalers, as well as offers products through its online store Winezja.pl. Ambra S.A. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. Ambra S.A. is a subsidiary of Schloss Wachenheim AG.
Stock analysis
Ambra SA (AMB) currently trades at 19.10 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 37.05 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 48.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 39.46 PLN per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the 19.10 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 11.41 PLN, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 27.66 PLN (bear) to 46.58 PLN (bull), the price of 19.10 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ambra SA reported revenue of 895M PLN in FY2025 versus 673M PLN in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was 44.7M PLN in FY2025, compounding −0.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 483M PLN (≈ $126M) · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) 1.94 PLN · Dividend yield 5.8% · Net margin 5.0% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 94%, AMB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 27.66 PLNFair Value 37.05 PLNBull 46.58 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.8400 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5% vs 9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 98 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ambra SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMB
Frequently asked questions
Is Ambra SA (AMB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 37.05 PLN versus a price of 19.10 PLN, about +94% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AMB?
Our model-based fair value for Ambra SA is 37.05 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 19.10 PLN.
What is the quality score of AMB?
Ambra SA has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ambra SA (AMB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 37.05 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 27.66 PLN, optimistic scenario 46.58 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ambra SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 37.05 PLN, about +94% upside versus a price of 19.10 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 27.66 PLN, optimistic scenario 46.58 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ambra SA (AMB)?
Ambra SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 912M PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ambra SA pay a dividend?
Ambra SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.76% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ambra SA (AMB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ambra SA would have to grow free cash flow by -4.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMB use?
Our models discount Ambra SA at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.03, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ambra SA that is -4.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ambra SA (AMB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ambra SA grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies -4.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ambra SA (AMB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ambra SA (-4.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ambra SA (AMB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.69 %: that much free cash flow Ambra SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ambra SA (AMB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ambra SA it is 37.05 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 19.10 PLN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ambra SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AMB trades below its calculated fair value: price 19.10 PLN, fair value 37.05 PLN, a gap of about +94% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (19.10 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (37.05 PLN). For Ambra SA the two are 17.95 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ambra SA worth?
The market values Ambra SA at about 483M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 19.10 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 37.05 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMB?
Our models span a range for Ambra SA: cautious scenario 27.66 PLN, base 37.05 PLN, optimistic 46.58 PLN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 19.10 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMB?
Ambra SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 37.05 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.3, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 1.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ambra SA (AMB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ambra SA (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMB from its 52-week high?
Ambra SA trades at 19.10 PLN, about 4% below its 52-week high of 19.80 PLN and 18% above the low of 16.22 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 37.05 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ambra SA?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Luzhou Laojiao Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ambra SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 19.10 PLN, calculated fair value 37.05 PLN (+94%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMB calculated?
We run Ambra SA through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 37.05 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ambra SA currently trades 94 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ambra SA (AMB)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 19.10 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 37.05 PLN, about +94% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ambra SA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (27.66 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (62/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Ambra SA (AMB) come from?
Earnings per share at Ambra SA grew +11.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.0 %, EBIT margin +3.2 %, tax rate −1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Ambra SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Ambra SA (AMB)?
The market capitalisation of Ambra SA is 483M PLN (≈ $126M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ambra SA (AMB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ambra SA is 0.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ambra SA (AMB)?
Earnings per share at Ambra SA are 1.94 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ambra SA (AMB)?
The dividend yield of Ambra SA is 5.8% (payout 56.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ambra SA (AMB)?
The net margin of Ambra SA is 5.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ambra SA (AMB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ambra SA is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ambra SA (AMB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ambra SA is 12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ambra SA (AMB)?
The operating margin of Ambra SA is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ambra SA (AMB)?
Revenue at Ambra SA is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ambra SA (AMB)?
Earnings per share at Ambra SA are growing +16.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Ambra SA (AMB) carry?
The net debt of Ambra SA is 74.4M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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