Ambra S.A (AMB) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · PL · Market cap 459M PLN
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from 37.27 PLN to 8.58 PLN (−77.0%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +2.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (10.72 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 15.16 PLN – 29.15 PLN · fair‑value band 6.43 PLN – 10.72 PLN · the 18.44 PLN price screens above the 8.58 PLN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Ambra S.A (AMB) currently trades at 18.44 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 8.58 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 53.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ambra S.A generated revenue of 912M PLN at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue grew 4.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.8%. Net debt stands at 74.4M PLN. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 6.43 PLN (bear case) to 10.72 PLN (bull case); at 18.44 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at -53%, AMB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (40.48 PLN) versus Asset-Based (11.41 PLN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ambra S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, import, and distribution of grape wines in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania. It offers sparkling and carbonated wines, table and flavored wines, champagne type soft drinks, meads, and ciders, as well as other alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages.
Full company description
Ambra S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, import, and distribution of grape wines in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Romania. It offers sparkling and carbonated wines, table and flavored wines, champagne type soft drinks, meads, and ciders, as well as other alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages. The company offers its products under the CIN&CIN, DORATO, EL SOL, FRESCO, PLISKA, PICCOLO, CYDR LUBELSKI, WINIARNIA ZAMOJSKA, SLANTSCHEW BRJAG, ROBBY BUBBLE, ROSSIJSKOE IGRISTOE, FLY SEKT, ZAREA, MILCOV, CARPATEN, and CORRIDO brand names. It supplies its products to shops, distribution networks, and wholesalers, as well as offers products through its online store Winezja.pl. Ambra S.A. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland. Ambra S.A. is a subsidiary of Schloss Wachenheim AG.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Ambra S.A reported revenue of 895M PLN in FY2025 versus 673M PLN in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was 44.7M PLN in FY2025, compounding −0.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +9.0 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AMB screens 53% overvalued. Compare with Kweichow Moutai Co →
Peer Group
Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 96 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kweichow Moutai Co 600519 | ¥1,251 | ¥1,238 | -1% |
| Diageo plc DEON | 1,487 MXN | 1,239 MXN | -17% |
| Wuliangye Yibin Co 000858 | ¥73.69 | ¥48.44 | -34% |
| Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co 600809 | ¥110.50 | ¥185.80 | +68% |
| Pernod Ricard SA RI | €65.24 | €76.68 | +18% |
| Luzhou Laojiao Co 000568 | ¥83.12 | ¥149.17 | +79% |
| Brown-Forman Corporation BFA | $26.60 | $28.15 | +6% |
| United Spirits Limited UNITDSPR | ₹1,376 | ₹440.56 | -68% |
| Thai Beverage Public Company Y92 | 0.4450 SGD | 0.6900 SGD | +55% |
| Jiangsu Yanghe Distillery Co 002304 | ¥38.08 | ¥27.82 | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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