First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what First Quantum Minerals Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$9.65 – C$48.69 · fair‑value band C$3.07 – C$20.06 · the C$45.25 price screens above the C$14.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties. It primarily explores for copper, gold, nickel, silver, and zinc products. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Kansanshi project located in the northwestern Province of Zambia.
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First Quantum Minerals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of mineral properties. It primarily explores for copper, gold, nickel, silver, and zinc products. Its flagship project is the 100% owned Kansanshi project located in the northwestern Province of Zambia. The company was formerly known as First Quantum Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to First Quantum Minerals Ltd. in July 1996. The company was incorporated in 1983 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) currently trades at C$45.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$14.36, implying the stock looks roughly 215.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$13.13 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the C$45.25 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$9.03, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$3.07 (bear) to C$20.06 (bull), the price of C$45.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
First Quantum Minerals Ltd reported revenue of $5.2B in FY2025 versus $7.2B in FY2021, a compound −7.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$28.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap C$37.7B (≈ $26.8B) · P/S ratio 5.59 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.3400 · Net margin −0.5% · Return on equity −2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% · Operating margin 10.0% · Revenue (TTM) C$5.5B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 121% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at −68%, FM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (C$1.25 to C$26.37). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear C$3.07Fair Value C$14.36Bull C$20.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.50/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.7% (2020) → 18.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+44.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+34.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare First Quantum Minerals Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 59 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside−63% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.45× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.97× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)4.04× · Pricier than median
P/FCF47.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.96× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)90· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)77· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 21
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$14.36 versus a price of C$45.25, about −68% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FM?
Our model-based fair value for First Quantum Minerals Ltd is C$14.36 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$45.25.
What is the quality score of FM?
First Quantum Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$14.36 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$3.07, optimistic scenario C$20.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Quantum Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$14.36, about −68% upside versus a price of C$45.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$3.07, optimistic scenario C$20.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
First Quantum Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$5.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, First Quantum Minerals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +44.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.7 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FM use?
Our models discount First Quantum Minerals Ltd at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.00, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For First Quantum Minerals Ltd that is +44.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at First Quantum Minerals Ltd grew +0.7 % a year. The price currently implies +44.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into First Quantum Minerals Ltd (+44.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.23 %: that much free cash flow First Quantum Minerals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Quantum Minerals Ltd it is C$14.36 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of C$45.25. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is First Quantum Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, FM trades above its calculated fair value: price C$45.25, fair value C$14.36, a gap of about −68% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$45.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$14.36). For First Quantum Minerals Ltd the two are C$30.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Quantum Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values First Quantum Minerals Ltd at about C$37.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is C$45.25; our models calculate a fair value of C$14.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FM?
Our models span a range for First Quantum Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario C$3.07, base C$14.36, optimistic C$20.06 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price C$45.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of FM?
The PEG ratio of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is 0.96 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Quantum Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity −2.1%, debt of 0.45 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FM from its 52-week high?
First Quantum Minerals Ltd trades at C$45.25, about 2% below its 52-week high of C$46.31 and 121% above the low of C$20.46 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$14.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Quantum Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, Lundin Mining Corporation, Jiangxi Copper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Quantum Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price C$45.25, calculated fair value C$14.36 (−68%), Quality Score 40/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FM calculated?
We run First Quantum Minerals Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$14.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. First Quantum Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was C$45.25. Our model-based fair value is C$14.36, about −68% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Quantum Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$20.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (C$3.07 to C$20.06). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of First Quantum Minerals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The market capitalisation of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is C$37.7B (≈ $26.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is 5.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Earnings per share at First Quantum Minerals Ltd are C$−0.3400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The net margin of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is −0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is −2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
The operating margin of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Revenue at First Quantum Minerals Ltd is growing +18.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM)?
Earnings per share at First Quantum Minerals Ltd are growing −74.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FM) carry?
The net debt of First Quantum Minerals Ltd is C$5.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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