Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $9.0B
Hudbay Minerals Inc
HBM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $24.33 to $21.77 (−10.5%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +22.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($10.25 to $31.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.16 – $31.86 · fair‑value band $10.25 – $31.21 · the $26.31 price screens above the $21.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Hudbay Minerals Inc (HBM) currently trades at $26.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.77, implying the stock looks roughly 17.3% overvalued today. We read business quality at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Hudbay Minerals Inc generated revenue of $2.4B at a net margin of 27.8%. Revenue grew 27.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.5%. Net debt stands at $524M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.25 (bear case) to $31.21 (bull case); at $26.31, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 195% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -17%, HBM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($57.75) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and optimization of properties in North and South America. It primarily explores for copper concentrates containing copper, gold, zinc, molybdenum concentrates, and silver.
Full company description
Hudbay Minerals Inc., a diversified mining company, focuses on the exploration, development, operation, and optimization of properties in North and South America. It primarily explores for copper concentrates containing copper, gold, zinc, molybdenum concentrates, and silver. It owns 100% interest in Copper Mountain mine located approximately 20 kilometers south of Princeton, British Columbia, in the Similkameen valley. Hudbay Minerals Inc. was founded in 1927 and is based in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Hudbay Minerals Inc reported revenue of $2.2B in FY2025 versus $1.5B in FY2021, a compound +10.1%/yr. Reported net income was $569M in FY2025.
HBM screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Hudbay Announces Correction to its Upcoming Dividend Record and Payment Dates
- HudBay Minerals (HBM) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates
- HudBay Minerals (HBM) Misses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- Hudbay Delivers Strong Second Quarter 2026 Results and Improves Cash Cost Guidance
Peer Group
Copper · 58 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $175.66 | $86.74 | -51% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $61.52 | $22.81 | -63% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$34.86 | C$18.67 | -46% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥39.03 | ¥35.19 | -10% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.79 | ¥3.06 | -47% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥16.66 | ¥7.00 | -58% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$13.06 | A$7.28 | -44% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥14.32 | ¥9.12 | -36% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$14.75 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
| Hindustan Copper Limited HINDCOPPER | ₹486.15 | ₹158.42 | -67% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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