EN DE

Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$29.8B

LM Lundin Mining Corporation LUN · TO
PriceC$37.59
Fair ValueC$15.87
Upside-57.8%
Quality55/100
Watch Lundin Mining Corporation for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 33.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.24% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Wide moat 80/100
Evidence: Medium Range C$8.84 – C$21.86 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago

Share price +13.0% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$21.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (C$8.84 to C$21.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

C$44.34 C$5.71 Fair Value C$15.87 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$5.71 – C$44.34 · fair‑value band C$8.84 – C$21.86 · the C$37.59 price screens above the C$15.87 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) currently trades at C$37.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$15.87, implying the stock looks roughly 57.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Lundin Mining Corporation generated revenue of C$4.3B at a net margin of 33.6%. Revenue grew 26.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.2%. Net debt stands at C$320M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$8.84 (bear case) to C$21.86 (bull case); at C$37.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 182% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -58%, LUN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF C$9.71 C$17.17 C$30.05 80
Residual Income C$10.30 C$14.41 C$73.56 76
Rev-Margin DCF C$8.61 C$14.89 C$23.18 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF C$9.83 C$18.10 C$32.85 38
Owner Earnings C$19.72 C$36.54 C$66.56 31
5Y Revenue Exit C$8.61 C$15.07 C$23.93 39
5Y EBITDA Exit C$15.11 C$28.72 C$46.21 41
5Y P/E Exit C$17.89 C$34.56 C$54.14 38
10Y Revenue Exit C$8.67 C$15.01 C$24.92 36
10Y EBITDA Exit C$13.28 C$25.11 C$43.92 37
10Y P/E Exit C$15.14 C$29.44 C$50.68 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd C$10.40 C$51.40 C$70.89 54
Lynch FV C$13.85 C$19.79 C$25.72 50
PEG = 1.0 C$13.85 C$19.79 C$25.72 46
EPV C$10.12 C$11.76 C$13.20 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM C$1.16 C$2.41 C$3.82 70
DDM Multi-Stage C$1.16 C$2.03 C$2.52 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple C$22.94 C$30.58 C$38.23 63
P/S Multiple C$8.36 C$11.15 C$13.93 58
P/B Multiple C$17.41 C$23.22 C$29.02 55
EV/EBIT C$15.78 C$20.95 C$26.11 53
EV/EBITDA C$18.85 C$25.03 C$31.22 54
EV/Revenue C$8.08 C$11.43 C$14.77 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$3.87 C$5.19 C$7.74 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF C$9.71 C$17.17 C$30.05 80
Rev-Margin DCF C$8.61 C$14.89 C$23.18 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income C$10.30 C$14.41 C$73.56 76
ROIC Compounder C$11.21 C$15.42 C$21.05 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E C$20.75 C$29.65 C$38.54 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$29.65) versus Dividend Discount (C$2.03). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) C$4.3B
Revenue growth (YoY) +26.0%
Net margin 33.6%
Return on equity 22.2%
Free cash flow C$616M FY2025
P/E ratio 19.3
More key figures
Operating margin 43.5%
EPS (TTM) C$1.93
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +128%
Net debt C$320M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 63
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 37
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 5
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 15
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. It explores for copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other metal deposits. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd.

Full company description

Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. It explores for copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other metal deposits. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004. Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Lundin Mining Corporation reported revenue of C$3.8B in FY2025 versus C$3.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$3.8B
Latest YoY
+11.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+7.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+13.3%
Avg. growth/yr (21Y)
+24.2%
Revenue +3.4%/yr
FY21 C$3.3B
FY22 C$3.0B
FY23 C$2.7B
FY24 C$3.4B
FY25 C$3.8B
Net income +13.7%/yr
FY21 C$780M
FY22 C$427M
FY23 C$242M
FY24 −C$204M
FY25 C$1.3B

LUN screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →

Share or link this analysis
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lundin Mining Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LUN

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Copper · 58 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside −58% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 34% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 43% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 26% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 17.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 3.23× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 4.98× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 34.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 11.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.93× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 100
PAST 89 · sector 22
HEALTH 100 · sector 93
DIVIDEND 5 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Southern Copper Corporation SCCO $175.66 $86.74 -51%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX $61.52 $22.81 -63%
Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 ¥39.03 ¥35.19 -10%
Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 ¥5.79 ¥3.06 -47%
Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM C$28.58 C$21.79 -24%
Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 ¥16.66 ¥7.00 -58%
Capstone Copper Corp CSC A$13.06 A$7.28 -44%
Yunnan Copper Co 000878 ¥14.32 ¥9.12 -36%
China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 HK$14.75 HK$1.76 -88%
Hindustan Copper Limited HINDCOPPER ₹486.15 ₹158.42 -67%

Compare Lundin Mining Corporation with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$15.87 versus a price of C$37.59, about −58% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LUN?
Our model-based fair value for Lundin Mining Corporation is C$15.87 (as of Jul 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is C$37.59.
What is the quality score of LUN?
Lundin Mining Corporation has a Quality Score of 55/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
Lundin Mining Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$4.3B (latest available figure, as of Jul 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of LUN?
The net profit margin of Lundin Mining Corporation is about 33.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 33.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Lundin Mining Corporation pay a dividend?
Lundin Mining Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Lundin Mining Corporation and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.