Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Lundin Mining Corporation is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$5.71 – C$44.34 · fair‑value band C$18.16 – C$47.32 · the C$33.55 price screens above the C$29.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. It explores for copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other metal deposits. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd.
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Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. It explores for copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other metal deposits. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004. Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) currently trades at C$33.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$29.79, implying the stock looks roughly 12.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$27.34 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$33.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$5.19, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: C$18.16 (bear) to C$47.32 (bull), the price of C$33.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lundin Mining Corporation reported revenue of $3.8B in FY2025 versus $3.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2025, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$28.8B (≈ $20.5B) · P/E ratio 17.4 · P/S ratio 5.96 · EPS (TTM) C$1.93 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 34.3% · Return on equity 22.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 152% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −11%, LUN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$18.16Fair Value C$29.79Bull C$47.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$1.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ −0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.46% vs 23%, picking up
Profit margin 2018 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 26%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 242% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Lundin Mining Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 59 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−46% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)34% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)43% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
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Is Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$29.79 versus a price of C$33.55, about −11% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LUN?
Our model-based fair value for Lundin Mining Corporation is C$29.79 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$33.55.
What is the quality score of LUN?
Lundin Mining Corporation has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$29.79 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$18.16, optimistic scenario C$47.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lundin Mining Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$29.79, about −11% upside versus a price of C$33.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$18.16, optimistic scenario C$47.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
Lundin Mining Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$4.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Lundin Mining Corporation pay a dividend?
Lundin Mining Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lundin Mining Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +30.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.3 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LUN use?
Our models discount Lundin Mining Corporation at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.06, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lundin Mining Corporation that is +30.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lundin Mining Corporation grew +13.3 % a year. The price currently implies +30.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lundin Mining Corporation (+30.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.14 %: that much free cash flow Lundin Mining Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lundin Mining Corporation it is C$29.79 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of C$33.55. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lundin Mining Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, LUN trades above its calculated fair value: price C$33.55, fair value C$29.79, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LUN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$33.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$29.79). For Lundin Mining Corporation the two are C$3.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lundin Mining Corporation worth?
The market values Lundin Mining Corporation at about C$28.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is C$33.55; our models calculate a fair value of C$29.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LUN?
Our models span a range for Lundin Mining Corporation: cautious scenario C$18.16, base C$29.79, optimistic C$47.32 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price C$33.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LUN?
Lundin Mining Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$29.79 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 3.3, P/S 5.0, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
What is the PEG ratio of LUN?
The PEG ratio of Lundin Mining Corporation is 0.93 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lundin Mining Corporation (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 22.2%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LUN from its 52-week high?
Lundin Mining Corporation trades at C$33.55, about 27% below its 52-week high of C$45.67 and 152% above the low of C$13.31 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$29.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lundin Mining Corporation?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Jiangxi Copper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lundin Mining Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price C$33.55, calculated fair value C$29.79 (−11%), Quality Score 54/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LUN calculated?
We run Lundin Mining Corporation through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$29.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lundin Mining Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was C$33.55. Our model-based fair value is C$29.79, about −11% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lundin Mining Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$18.16 to C$47.32). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Lundin Mining Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
The market capitalisation of Lundin Mining Corporation is C$28.8B (≈ $20.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lundin Mining Corporation is 5.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
Earnings per share at Lundin Mining Corporation are C$1.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
The dividend yield of Lundin Mining Corporation is 0.2% (payout 4.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
The net margin of Lundin Mining Corporation is 34.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lundin Mining Corporation is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lundin Mining Corporation is 13.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
The operating margin of Lundin Mining Corporation is 43.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
Revenue at Lundin Mining Corporation is growing +26.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
Earnings per share at Lundin Mining Corporation are growing +128% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) carry?
The net debt of Lundin Mining Corporation is C$320M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 18, 2026