Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$29.8B
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +13.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$21.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$8.84 to C$21.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$5.71 – C$44.34 · fair‑value band C$8.84 – C$21.86 · the C$37.59 price screens above the C$15.87 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) currently trades at C$37.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$15.87, implying the stock looks roughly 57.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lundin Mining Corporation generated revenue of C$4.3B at a net margin of 33.6%. Revenue grew 26.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.2%. Net debt stands at C$320M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$8.84 (bear case) to C$21.86 (bull case); at C$37.59, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 182% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -58%, LUN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$29.65) versus Dividend Discount (C$2.03). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. It explores for copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other metal deposits. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd.
Full company description
Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Chile, Brazil, and Argentina. It explores for copper, gold, silver, molybdenum, and other metal deposits. The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd. and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004. Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lundin Mining Corporation reported revenue of C$3.8B in FY2025 versus C$3.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was C$1.3B in FY2025, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2021.
LUN screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Lundin Mining Announces Updated Share Capital and Provides Update on Share Buybacks
- Lundin Mining (LUNMF) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release
- Lundin Mining Provides Further Update on Chile Operations Following Severe Winter Storm
- Is Lundin Mining (LUNMF) Stock Outpacing Its Basic Materials Peers This Year?
Peer Group
Copper · 58 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $175.66 | $86.74 | -51% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $61.52 | $22.81 | -63% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥39.03 | ¥35.19 | -10% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.79 | ¥3.06 | -47% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$28.58 | C$21.79 | -24% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥16.66 | ¥7.00 | -58% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CSC | A$13.06 | A$7.28 | -44% |
| Yunnan Copper Co 000878 | ¥14.32 | ¥9.12 | -36% |
| China Nonferrous Mining Corporation 1258 | HK$14.75 | HK$1.76 | -88% |
| Hindustan Copper Limited HINDCOPPER | ₹486.15 | ₹158.42 | -67% |
Compare Lundin Mining Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of LUN?
What is the quality score of LUN?
What is the revenue of Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)?
What is the net profit margin of LUN?
Does Lundin Mining Corporation pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Lundin Mining Corporation and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.