MMG Ltd (1208) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of MMG Ltd HK$9.40, price HK$8.50, upside +10.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.46 – HK$11.37 · fair‑value band HK$6.63 – HK$12.22 · the HK$8.50 price screens below the HK$9.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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MMG Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties. It operates through Las Bambas, Kinsevere, Khoemacau, Dugald River, and Rosebery segments. The company explore for copper, zinc, gold, silver, molybdenum, cobalt, and lead deposits.
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MMG Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties. It operates through Las Bambas, Kinsevere, Khoemacau, Dugald River, and Rosebery segments. The company explore for copper, zinc, gold, silver, molybdenum, cobalt, and lead deposits. It holds a portfolio of projects in Peru, Australia, Botswana, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. MMG Limited was formerly known as Minmetals Resources Limited and changed its name to MMG Limited in September 2012. The company was incorporated in 1988 and is headquartered in Southbank, Australia. MMG Limited operates as a subsidiary of China Minmetals H.K. (Holdings) Limited.
Stock analysis
MMG Ltd (1208) currently trades at HK$8.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$9.40, implying the stock looks roughly 9.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$7.45 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$8.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$1.62, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$6.63 (bear) to HK$12.22 (bull), the price of HK$8.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
MMG Ltd reported revenue of $6.2B in FY2025 versus $4.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was $510M in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$108B (≈ $13.7B) · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 1.04 · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 21.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7% · Operating margin 47.8% · Revenue (TTM) $7.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 11%, 1208 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$6.63Fair Value HK$9.40Bull HK$12.22
Price HK$8.50 · Upside +10.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+39.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Per share before 2016divided by the spin-off factor 1.064
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.9% vs 8.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.44% → 38%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 174% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.8% a year for the price and +6.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 59 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets23.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)25.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)47.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth61.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.74× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MMG Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1208
Frequently asked questions
Is MMG Ltd (1208) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$9.40 versus a price of HK$8.50, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1208?
Our model-based fair value for MMG Ltd is HK$9.40 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$8.50.
What is the quality score of 1208?
MMG Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MMG Ltd (1208)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$9.40 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$6.63, optimistic scenario HK$12.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MMG Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$9.40, about +11% upside versus a price of HK$8.50 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$6.63, optimistic scenario HK$12.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MMG Ltd (1208)?
MMG Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into MMG Ltd (1208)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MMG Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +4.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 1208 use?
Our models discount MMG Ltd at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.64, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MMG Ltd that is +4.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MMG Ltd (1208) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at MMG Ltd grew +15.5 % a year. The price currently implies +4.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MMG Ltd (1208) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MMG Ltd (+4.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MMG Ltd (1208)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.12 %: that much free cash flow MMG Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MMG Ltd (1208)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MMG Ltd it is HK$9.40 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of HK$8.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MMG Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, 1208 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$8.50, fair value HK$9.40, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 1208?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$8.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$9.40). For MMG Ltd the two are HK$0.9000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MMG Ltd worth?
The market values MMG Ltd at about HK$108B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is HK$8.50; our models calculate a fair value of HK$9.40 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 1208?
Our models span a range for MMG Ltd: cautious scenario HK$6.63, base HK$9.40, optimistic HK$12.22 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price HK$8.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 1208?
MMG Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$9.40 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 3.5, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 1208?
The PEG ratio of MMG Ltd is 0.21 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of MMG Ltd (1208)?
Balance-sheet figures for MMG Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 21.3%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 1208 from its 52-week high?
MMG Ltd trades at HK$8.50, about 25% below its 52-week high of HK$11.37 and 34% above the low of HK$6.36 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$9.40 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MMG Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Jiangxi Copper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MMG Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price HK$8.50, calculated fair value HK$9.40 (+11%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 1208 calculated?
We run MMG Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$9.40, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. MMG Ltd currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MMG Ltd (1208)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was HK$8.50. Our model-based fair value is HK$9.40, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MMG Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$6.63 to HK$12.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of MMG Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of MMG Ltd (1208)?
The market capitalisation of MMG Ltd is HK$108B (≈ $13.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MMG Ltd (1208)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MMG Ltd is 1.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of MMG Ltd (1208)?
The net margin of MMG Ltd is 8.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MMG Ltd (1208)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MMG Ltd is 21.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MMG Ltd (1208)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MMG Ltd is 14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MMG Ltd (1208)?
The operating margin of MMG Ltd is 47.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MMG Ltd (1208)?
Revenue at MMG Ltd is growing +61.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MMG Ltd (1208)?
Earnings per share at MMG Ltd are growing +155% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MMG Ltd (1208) carry?
The net debt of MMG Ltd is $3.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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