Antofagasta PLC (ANTO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · GB · Market cap 34.4B GBX
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from £23.40 to £17.20 (−26.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +1.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 54% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£21.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £9.91 – £44.55 · fair‑value band £12.90 – £21.50 · the £37.06 price screens above the £17.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Antofagasta PLC (ANTO) currently trades at £37.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £17.20, implying the stock looks roughly 53.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Antofagasta PLC generated revenue of £8.6B at a net margin of 15.4%. Revenue grew 31.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.1%. Net debt stands at £5.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from £12.90 (bear case) to £21.50 (bull case); at £37.06, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -54%, ANTO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£25.71) versus Dividend Discount (£6.59). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company produces copper cathodes and copper concentrates; molybdenum concentrates; and gold and silver by-products.
Full company description
Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company. It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments. The company produces copper cathodes and copper concentrates; molybdenum concentrates; and gold and silver by-products. It also provides rail and road cargo services to mining customers in northern Chile. In addition, the company has exploration projects in various countries. It has operations in the United Kingdom, Switzerland, Spain, Germany, rest of Europe, Chile, rest of Latin America, the United States, Japan, China, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, and rest of Asia. The company was incorporated in 1888 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom. Antofagasta plc is a subsidiary of Metalinvest Anstalt.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Antofagasta PLC reported revenue of £8.8B in FY2025 versus £7.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was £1.4B in FY2025, compounding +1.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.7 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ANTO screens 54% overvalued. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Peer Group
Copper · 61 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $194.89 | $85.17 | -56% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $69.22 | $22.81 | -67% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$43.46 | C$16.35 | -62% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$35.53 | C$22.65 | -36% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥46.47 | ¥35.19 | -24% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥6.37 | ¥3.06 | -52% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$9.08 | HK$5.29 | -42% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | C$38.79 | C$21.25 | -45% |
| Zhejiang Hailiang Co 002203 | ¥19.78 | ¥6.39 | -68% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$14.82 | C$9.91 | -33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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