Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Air New Zealand Limited $0.38, price $0.23, upside +65.6%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1817 – $0.8811 · fair‑value band $0.2800 – $0.4700 · the $0.2295 price screens below the $0.3800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Air New Zealand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger and cargo transportation on scheduled airlines services in New Zealand, Australia, the Pacific Islands, Asia, the United Kingdom, Europe, and the Americas.
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Air New Zealand Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides air passenger and cargo transportation on scheduled airlines services in New Zealand, Australia, the Pacific Islands, Asia, the United Kingdom, Europe, and the Americas. The company offers engineering and maintenance services, including aircraft and component maintenance, repair, and overhaul services; travel insurance, accommodation, and car rental services; and captive insurance, aviation, and aircraft leasing and financing services. As of June 30, 2025, it operated a fleet of 10 Boeing 777-300ER; 14 Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner; 13 Airbus A321neo; 6 Airbus A320neo; 17 Airbus A320ceo; 30 ATR 72-600; and 23 Bombardier Q300 aircrafts. The company was formerly known as Tasman Empire Airways Limited and changed its name to Air New Zealand Limited in April 1965. Air New Zealand Limited was incorporated in 1940 and is based in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF) currently trades at $0.2295, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3800, implying the stock looks roughly 39.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.6300 per share, and 22 of the 25 models we run sit above the $0.2295 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.1200, and 3 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2800 (bear) to $0.4700 (bull), the price of $0.2295 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Air New Zealand Limited reported revenue of 6.8B NZD in FY2025 versus 2.5B NZD in FY2021, a compound +28.0%/yr. Reported net income was 126M NZD in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $782M · P/S ratio 0.12 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity −0.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% · Operating margin −0.8% · Revenue (TTM) 6.8B NZD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at 66%, ANZFF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.2800Fair Value $0.3800Bull $0.4700
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.68/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.2% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−18.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24.1% vs −14.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.3% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Air New Zealand Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside+62.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−0.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−0.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Air New Zealand Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ANZFF
Frequently asked questions
Is Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3800 versus a price of $0.2295, about +66% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ANZFF?
Our model-based fair value for Air New Zealand Limited is $0.3800 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.2295.
What is the quality score of ANZFF?
Air New Zealand Limited has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3800 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2800, optimistic scenario $0.4700. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Air New Zealand Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3800, about +66% upside versus a price of $0.2295 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.2800, optimistic scenario $0.4700. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
Air New Zealand Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.8B NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Air New Zealand Limited pay a dividend?
Air New Zealand Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Air New Zealand Limited would have to grow free cash flow by -7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ANZFF use?
Our models discount Air New Zealand Limited at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Air New Zealand Limited that is -7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Air New Zealand Limited grew +6.9 % a year. The price currently implies -7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Air New Zealand Limited (-7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.51 %: that much free cash flow Air New Zealand Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Air New Zealand Limited it is $0.3800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.2295. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Air New Zealand Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ANZFF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.2295, fair value $0.3800, a gap of about +66% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ANZFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.2295); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3800). For Air New Zealand Limited the two are $0.1505 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Air New Zealand Limited worth?
The market values Air New Zealand Limited at about $782M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.2295; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ANZFF?
Our models span a range for Air New Zealand Limited: cautious scenario $0.2800, base $0.3800, optimistic $0.4700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.2295). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ANZFF?
The PEG ratio of Air New Zealand Limited is 0.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Air New Zealand Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −0.6%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ANZFF from its 52-week high?
Air New Zealand Limited trades at $0.2295, about 38% below its 52-week high of $0.3700 and 26% above the low of $0.1817 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Air New Zealand Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, Southwest Airlines Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Air New Zealand Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.2295, calculated fair value $0.3800 (+66%), Quality Score 45/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ANZFF calculated?
We run Air New Zealand Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Air New Zealand Limited currently trades 40 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.2295. Our model-based fair value is $0.3800, about +66% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Air New Zealand Limited right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.2800). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF) come from?
Earnings per share at Air New Zealand Limited grew −10.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.3 %, EBIT margin +1.4 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −9.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Air New Zealand Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
The market capitalisation of Air New Zealand Limited is $782M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Air New Zealand Limited is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
The dividend yield of Air New Zealand Limited is 5.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
The net margin of Air New Zealand Limited is 1.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Air New Zealand Limited is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Air New Zealand Limited is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
The operating margin of Air New Zealand Limited is −0.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
Revenue at Air New Zealand Limited is growing +1.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF)?
Earnings per share at Air New Zealand Limited are growing +18.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Air New Zealand Limited (ANZFF) carry?
The net debt of Air New Zealand Limited is 1.4B NZD (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026