American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of American Outdoor Brands Inc $8.17, price $16.51, upside -50.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.36 – $36.03 · fair‑value band $5.39 – $10.21 · the $16.51 price screens above the $8.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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American Outdoor Brands, Inc. provides outdoor products and accessories for rugged outdoor enthusiasts in the United States and internationally.
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American Outdoor Brands, Inc. provides outdoor products and accessories for rugged outdoor enthusiasts in the United States and internationally. The company provides shooting sports accessories products, including rests, vaults, and other related accessories; outdoor lifestyle products, such as premium sportsman knives and tools for fishing and hunting; land management tools for hunting preparedness and for use in the backyard; outdoor cooking products; and camping, survival, and emergency preparedness products. It also offers electro-optical devices, including hunting optics, firearm aiming devices, flashlights, and laser grips; and reloading, gunsmithing, and firearm cleaning supplies. In addition, the company offers rugged outdoor cutlery and tools, hunting accessories, meat processing equipment, shooting range and marksman products, cleaning and maintenance products, security and storage solutions, flashlights, cleaning kits, shooting glasses and cases, hearing protection products, training systems, and aiming solutions. It sells its products through e-commerce and traditional distribution channels under the Adventurer, Harvester, Marksman, and Defender brand names, including Grilla, BUBBA, ust, Schrade, Imperial, Hooyman, Old Timer, BOG, Uncle Henry, MEAT! Your Maker, Caldwell, Tipton, Wheeler, Frankford Arsenal, Crimson Trace, LaserLyte, Lockdown, M&P, Smith & Wesson, and Performance Center by Smith & Wesson. American Outdoor Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Columbia, Missouri.
Stock analysis
American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) currently trades at $16.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.17, implying the stock looks roughly 102.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $13.99 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $16.51 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $9.15, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.39 (bear) to $10.21 (bull), the price of $16.51 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
American Outdoor Brands Inc reported revenue of $222M in FY2025 versus $277M in FY2021, a compound −5.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$77.0K in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $211M · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) $−0.7800 · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity −5.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.7% · Operating margin −0.9% · Revenue (TTM) $205M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 160% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at −51%, AOUT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.39Fair Value $8.17Bull $10.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.25/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
’18
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−7.9% (2019) → −0.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare American Outdoor Brands Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 189 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−51% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.19× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)1.03× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA28.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.17 versus a price of $16.51, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AOUT?
Our model-based fair value for American Outdoor Brands Inc is $8.17 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.51.
What is the quality score of AOUT?
American Outdoor Brands Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.17 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.39, optimistic scenario $10.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Outdoor Brands Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.17, about −51% upside versus a price of $16.51 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.39, optimistic scenario $10.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
American Outdoor Brands Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $205M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Outdoor Brands Inc it is $8.17 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $16.51. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is American Outdoor Brands Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, AOUT trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.51, fair value $8.17, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AOUT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.17). For American Outdoor Brands Inc the two are $8.34 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Outdoor Brands Inc worth?
The market values American Outdoor Brands Inc at about $211M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $16.51; our models calculate a fair value of $8.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AOUT?
Our models span a range for American Outdoor Brands Inc: cautious scenario $5.39, base $8.17, optimistic $10.21 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $16.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Outdoor Brands Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AOUT from its 52-week high?
American Outdoor Brands Inc trades at $16.51, about 2% below its 52-week high of $16.83 and 160% above the low of $6.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Outdoor Brands Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Outdoor Brands Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $16.51, calculated fair value $8.17 (−51%), Quality Score 61/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AOUT calculated?
We run American Outdoor Brands Inc through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. American Outdoor Brands Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $16.51. Our model-based fair value is $8.17, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Outdoor Brands Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($5.39 to $10.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of American Outdoor Brands Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The market capitalisation of American Outdoor Brands Inc is $211M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American Outdoor Brands Inc is 0.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Earnings per share at American Outdoor Brands Inc are $−0.7800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The net margin of American Outdoor Brands Inc is 0.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American Outdoor Brands Inc is −5.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Outdoor Brands Inc is −4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The operating margin of American Outdoor Brands Inc is −0.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Revenue at American Outdoor Brands Inc is growing −3.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Earnings per share at American Outdoor Brands Inc are growing −33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) generate?
The free cash flow of American Outdoor Brands Inc is −$2.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) carry?
The net debt of American Outdoor Brands Inc is $9.9M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026