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Data-driven stock valuation

American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of American Outdoor Brands Inc stock $5.39, price $17.31, that is 68.9% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical US

AO American Outdoor Brands Inc logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

American Outdoor Brands Inc

AOUT · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 69% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Revenue last quarter +25% vs. a year ago.
Quality 56/100
Some data
Fair value $5.39 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.2 %/yr in USD)
Loss-making · -2.0% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (4/12)
Narrow moat 14/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$29.68 $6.36 Fair Value $5.39 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.36 – $29.68 · fair‑value band $4.16 – $6.83 · the $17.31 price screens above the $5.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

American Outdoor Brands, Inc. provides outdoor products and accessories for rugged outdoor enthusiasts in the United States and internationally.

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The company provides shooting sports accessories products, including rests, vaults, and other related accessories; outdoor lifestyle products, such as premium sportsman knives and tools for fishing and hunting; land management tools for hunting preparedness and for use in the backyard; outdoor cooking products; and camping, survival, and emergency preparedness products.

It also offers electro-optical devices, including hunting optics, firearm aiming devices, flashlights, and laser grips; and reloading, gunsmithing, and firearm cleaning supplies.

In addition, the company offers rugged outdoor cutlery and tools, hunting accessories, meat processing equipment, shooting range and marksman products, cleaning and maintenance products, security and storage solutions, flashlights, cleaning kits, shooting glasses and cases, hearing protection products, training systems, and aiming solutions.

It sells its products through e-commerce and traditional distribution channels under the Adventurer, Harvester, Marksman, and Defender brand names, including Grilla, BUBBA, ust, Schrade, Imperial, Hooyman, Old Timer, BOG, Uncle Henry, MEAT! Your Maker, Caldwell, Tipton, Wheeler, Frankford Arsenal, Crimson Trace, LaserLyte, Lockdown, M&P, Smith & Wesson, and Performance Center by Smith & Wesson.

American Outdoor Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Columbia, Missouri.

Stock analysis

American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) currently trades at $17.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.39, 69% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $8.08 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $17.31 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $4.60, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $4.16 (bear) to $6.83 (bull), the price of $17.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

American Outdoor Brands Inc reported revenue of $191M in FY2026 versus $248M in FY2022, a compound −6.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$9.2M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $217M Micro · P/S ratio 1.15 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3100 · Net margin −2.0% · Return on equity −2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin −5.1% · Revenue (TTM) $198M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 172% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −69%, AOUT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $4.16 Fair Value $5.39 Bull $6.83
Price $17.31 · Downside -68.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $4.16 $5.00 $6.40 82
Growth DCF $4.25 $5.04 $6.26 80
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.92 $6.71 $9.07 76
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $4.16 $5.00 $6.40 82
5Y Revenue Exit $4.16 $5.39 $7.17 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.92 $6.71 $9.07 76
10Y Revenue Exit $4.08 $4.92 $5.82 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $4.56 $5.66 $6.83 70
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $4.03 $5.67 $7.30 67
EV/Revenue $2.21 $3.53 $4.85 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.33 $8.08 $10.10 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $4.25 $5.04 $6.26 80
Rev-Margin DCF $4.16 $5.47 $7.07 74

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 27
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 21
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 34
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 83
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 98
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 95
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 17 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−14.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.5% (2021) → −2.9% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.1% a year for the price and +2.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.7%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.5%
Projected 2031 (sales)+4.1%

AOUT screens overvalued: fair value 69% below the price. Compare with Pop Mart International Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 169 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Below median
Fair Value upside −68.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −2.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −5.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 25.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.31× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.10× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 50.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 18.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 27
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$15.48 HK$29.34 +90% vs AOUT
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥34.77 ¥52.88 +52% vs AOUT
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$141.90 HK$207.44 +46% vs AOUT
Mattel, Inc MAT $15.35 $22.25 +45% vs AOUT
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $60.31 $66.34 +10% vs AOUT
Fluidra, S.A FDR €19.32 €21.25 +10% vs AOUT
Amer Sports, Inc AS $31.47 $19.17 −39% vs AOUT
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $80.74 $44.21 −45% vs AOUT
Life Time Group LTH $47.12 $16.00 −66% vs AOUT
Hasbro, Inc HAS $118.91 $32.71 −72% vs AOUT

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "American Outdoor Brands Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AOUT

Frequently asked questions

Is American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.39 versus a price of $17.31, about 69% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AOUT?
Our model-based fair value for American Outdoor Brands Inc is $5.39 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.31.
What is the quality score of AOUT?
American Outdoor Brands Inc has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.39 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.16, optimistic scenario $6.83. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the American Outdoor Brands Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.39, about 69% lower versus a price of $17.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $4.16, optimistic scenario $6.83. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
American Outdoor Brands Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $198M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, American Outdoor Brands Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +30.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.2 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AOUT use?
Our models discount American Outdoor Brands Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.15, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For American Outdoor Brands Inc that is +30.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at American Outdoor Brands Inc grew -7.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +30.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into American Outdoor Brands Inc (+30.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.97 %: that much free cash flow American Outdoor Brands Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For American Outdoor Brands Inc it is $5.39 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $17.31. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is American Outdoor Brands Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, AOUT trades above its calculated fair value: price $17.31, fair value $5.39, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AOUT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.39). For American Outdoor Brands Inc the two are $11.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is American Outdoor Brands Inc worth?
The market values American Outdoor Brands Inc at about $217M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $17.31; our models calculate a fair value of $5.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AOUT?
Our models span a range for American Outdoor Brands Inc: cautious scenario $4.16, base $5.39, optimistic $6.83 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $17.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Balance-sheet figures for American Outdoor Brands Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −2.4%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AOUT from its 52-week high?
American Outdoor Brands Inc trades at $17.31, about 6% below its 52-week high of $18.44 and 172% above the low of $6.36 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to American Outdoor Brands Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is American Outdoor Brands Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $17.31, calculated fair value $5.39 (−69%), Quality Score 56/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AOUT calculated?
We run American Outdoor Brands Inc through 10 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $5.39 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. American Outdoor Brands Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $17.31. Our model-based fair value is $5.39, about 69% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with American Outdoor Brands Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of American Outdoor Brands Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The market capitalisation of American Outdoor Brands Inc is $217M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of American Outdoor Brands Inc is 1.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Earnings per share at American Outdoor Brands Inc are $−0.3100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The net margin of American Outdoor Brands Inc is −2.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of American Outdoor Brands Inc is −2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of American Outdoor Brands Inc is −6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
The operating margin of American Outdoor Brands Inc is −5.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Revenue at American Outdoor Brands Inc is growing +25.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT)?
Earnings per share at American Outdoor Brands Inc are growing −33.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does American Outdoor Brands Inc (AOUT) carry?
The net debt of American Outdoor Brands Inc is $10.9M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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