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APA Group (APAJF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of APA Group $1.86, price $6.96, upside -73.3%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026
Thin data
Oct 3, 2026
APA Group
APAJF · USWeakest SetupQuality growthStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $1.86 · Strongly overvalued (−73.3%)
!Quality 39/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +4.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.1% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!8.3% dividend yield · Pays more than it earns
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.46 – $8.20 · fair‑value band $1.40 – $2.34 · the $6.96 price screens above the $1.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
APA Group engages in the energy infrastructure business in Australia. The company operates through Energy Infrastructure, Asset Management, and Energy Investments segments.
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APA Group engages in the energy infrastructure business in Australia. The company operates through Energy Infrastructure, Asset Management, and Energy Investments segments. It operates gas transmission and interconnected grids, gas-fired power stations, solar and wind farms, and battery energy storage systems, as well as provides gas storage, processing, and compression facilities. It also provides asset management and operating services to its energy investments and third parties; and invests in energy infrastructure. In addition, the company engages renewables projects; project construction process, such as horizontal directional drilling construction, pipeline construction process, open-trench construction, and pipeline construction process; and bundled energy systems. Further, it engages in electricity generation. The company also has interests in approximately 15,000 kilometers of gas transmission pipelines; approximately 29,500 kilometers of gas mains and pipelines; and 1.5 million gas consumer connections; and approximately 800 kilometers high-voltage electricity transmission, including 290 kilometers deep-sea cable. The company is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Stock analysis
APA Group (APAJF) currently trades at $6.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.86, 73.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $4.85 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the $6.96 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.4200, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.40 (bear) to $2.34 (bull), the price of $6.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
APA Group reported revenue of A$3.2B in FY2025 versus A$2.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$99.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $10.6B · P/E ratio 77.3 · P/S ratio 2.41 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Dividend yield 8.3% · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −73%, APAJF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.4200 to $5.75). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $1.40
Fair Value $1.86
Bull $2.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
n/a
$2.58
$8.41
77
Residual Income
$0.7900
$0.8100
$0.8600
76
Growth DCF
n/a
$2.58
$8.30
75
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
n/a
$2.58
$8.41
77
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$1.46
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$2.95
$7.63
72
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
n/a
$2.26
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
n/a
$2.36
$7.10
65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.3500
$1.26
$1.70
64
Lynch FV
$0.3000
$0.4200
$0.5500
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.3000
$0.4200
$0.5500
57
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.77
$5.75
$9.12
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.77
$4.85
$6.03
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.7000
$0.9400
$1.17
63
P/S Multiple
$0.6600
$0.8800
$1.11
58
P/B Multiple
$0.6600
$0.8800
$1.11
55
EV/EBIT
n/a
$1.26
$3.31
61
EV/EBITDA
n/a
$1.95
$4.17
62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.5000
$0.6800
$1.01
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
n/a
$2.58
$8.30
75
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
n/a
$1.41
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.7900
$0.8100
$0.8600
76
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.5200
$0.7400
$0.9600
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
39/100
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Profitability
21
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
5
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
87
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
55
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
61/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−19.9% vs −15.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 33%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.9% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+3.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.3%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.1%
APAJF screens overvalued: fair value 73% below the price. Compare with Naturgy Energy Group →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (59 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- APA Group (APAJF) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: EBITDA Surges 8. ...
- APA Group (APAJF) (Half Year 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Financial Performance and ...
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €29.10 | €32.79 | +13% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $156.38 | $77.00 | −51% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €45.25 | €45.97 | +2% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $39.50 | $19.90 | −50% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.08 | HK$4.79 | −32% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹172.70 | ₹132.97 | −23% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €8.35 | €9.19 | +10% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥18.54 | ¥36.99 | +100% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $36.24 | $32.74 | −10% |
| ENN Energy Holdings 2688 | HK$48.76 | HK$107.85 | +121% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is APA Group (APAJF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.86 versus a price of $6.96, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APAJF?
Our model-based fair value for APA Group is $1.86 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.96.
What is the quality score of APAJF?
APA Group has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for APA Group (APAJF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.86 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.40, optimistic scenario $2.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the APA Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.86, about −73% upside versus a price of $6.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.40, optimistic scenario $2.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of APA Group (APAJF)?
APA Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.2B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does APA Group pay a dividend?
APA Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.26% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into APA Group (APAJF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, APA Group would have to grow free cash flow by +27.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.5 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APAJF use?
Our models discount APA Group at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For APA Group that is +27.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has APA Group (APAJF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at APA Group grew +4.5 % a year. The price currently implies +27.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of APA Group (APAJF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into APA Group (+27.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of APA Group (APAJF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.55 %: that much free cash flow APA Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of APA Group (APAJF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For APA Group it is $1.86 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $6.96. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is APA Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, APAJF trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.96, fair value $1.86, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APAJF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.86). For APA Group the two are $5.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is APA Group worth?
The market values APA Group at about $10.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $6.96; our models calculate a fair value of $1.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APAJF?
Our models span a range for APA Group: cautious scenario $1.40, base $1.86, optimistic $2.34 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $6.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APAJF?
APA Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 77.3 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.5, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 12.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of APA Group (APAJF)?
Balance-sheet figures for APA Group (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 7.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APAJF from its 52-week high?
APA Group trades at $6.96, about 15% below its 52-week high of $8.20 and 27% above the low of $5.46 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to APA Group?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is APA Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $6.96, calculated fair value $1.86 (−73%), Quality Score 39/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APAJF calculated?
We run APA Group through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. APA Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of APA Group (APAJF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $6.96. Our model-based fair value is $1.86, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with APA Group right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.34). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of APA Group (APAJF) come from?
Earnings per share at APA Group grew −0.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate −0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of APA Group
How large is the market capitalisation of APA Group (APAJF)?
The market capitalisation of APA Group is $10.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of APA Group (APAJF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of APA Group is 2.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of APA Group (APAJF)?
Earnings per share at APA Group are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 77.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of APA Group (APAJF)?
The dividend yield of APA Group is 8.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of APA Group (APAJF)?
The net margin of APA Group is 3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of APA Group (APAJF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of APA Group is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of APA Group (APAJF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of APA Group is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of APA Group (APAJF)?
The operating margin of APA Group is 34.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at APA Group (APAJF)?
Revenue at APA Group is growing −0.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at APA Group (APAJF)?
Earnings per share at APA Group are growing +343% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does APA Group (APAJF) carry?
The net debt of APA Group is $13.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 41.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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