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Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arion banki hf stock SEK 29.56, price SEK 14.10, upside +109.6%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Financial Services · SE · Based in Iceland · ISIN SE0010413567

AB Arion banki hf logo Some data Oct 2, 2026

Arion banki hf

ARION-SDB · ST

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

The stock costs 52% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value kr 29.56 · Strongly undervalued (+109.6%)
Highly profitable · 40.5% net margin (TTM)
Ranks above peers (9/13)
Quality 56/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +21.6 %/yr in ISK)
Moderate moat 59/100
Some data
High debt
Negative free cash flow
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 15.30 kr 9.61 Fair Value kr 29.56 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 9.61 – kr 15.30 · fair‑value band kr 22.17 – kr 36.95 · the kr 14.10 price screens below the kr 29.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Arion banki hf. provides various financial services to individuals, corporates, and investors in Iceland and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Retail Banking, Corporate and Investment Banking, and Markets and Stefnir.

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The Retail Banking segment offers financial services, which include deposits and loans, savings, payment cards, pensions, insurance, securities, and funds.

Its Corporate & Investment Banking segment provides a range of products, such as guarantees, deposit accounts, payment solutions, and value-added digital solutions to SMEs, large-cap companies, and investors; and various financial advisory services, including M&A advisory, private placements, IPOs, and other offerings of securities.

The Markets and Stefnir segment manages financial assets on behalf of its customers, as well as a range of mutual, investment, and institutional investor funds; operates and develops pension funds; and provides various services for capital markets and securities brokerage services.

It is also involved in insurance and real estate business; and offers asset management and rental guarantee services. Arion banki hf. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Reykjavík, Iceland.

Stock analysis

Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB) currently trades at kr 14.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 29.56, implying the stock looks roughly 52.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 17.90 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the kr 14.10 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 8.57, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: kr 22.17 (bear) to kr 36.95 (bull), the price of kr 14.10 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Arion banki hf reported revenue of 191B ISK in FY2025 versus 80.1B ISK in FY2021, a compound +24.3%/yr. Reported net income was 31.9B ISK in FY2025, compounding +2.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 19.2B SEK (≈ $1.9B) Small · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 1.31 · EPS (TTM) kr 1.79 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin 16.7% · Return on equity 14.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 110%, ARION-SDB screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 22.17 Fair Value kr 29.56 Bull kr 36.95
Price kr 14.10 · Upside +109.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.44 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income kr 12.89 kr 16.36 kr 24.34 75
P/E Multiple kr 18.94 kr 25.26 kr 31.57 63
P/B Multiple kr 13.42 kr 17.90 kr 22.37 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple kr 18.94 kr 25.26 kr 31.57 63
P/B Multiple kr 13.42 kr 17.90 kr 22.37 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 6.39 kr 8.57 kr 12.78 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income kr 12.89 kr 16.36 kr 24.34 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 33
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 73
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 14
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 29
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 81
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 94
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 38
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 38
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+32.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+25.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.25.7% vs 4.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 25%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1050 stocks

Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside +109.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 14.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 40.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −2.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 6.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.48× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 7.9× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.08× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 3.28× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 13.1× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 50
PAST (return on equity)58 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.76 ¥52.73 +23% vs ARION-SDB
BNP Paribas SA BNP €89.59 €105.99 +18% vs ARION-SDB
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €75.14 €77.12 +3% vs ARION-SDB
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €11.91 €8.47 −29% vs ARION-SDB
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 29.06 SGD 19.78 SGD −32% vs ARION-SDB
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.09 €4.06 −33% vs ARION-SDB
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.60 $6.83 −36% vs ARION-SDB
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹726.85 ₹406.44 −44% vs ARION-SDB
DBS Group D05 73.94 SGD 40.39 SGD −45% vs ARION-SDB
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,389 ₹615.71 −56% vs ARION-SDB

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arion banki hf Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARION-SDB

Frequently asked questions

Is Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 29.56 versus a price of kr 14.10, about +110% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARION-SDB?
Our model-based fair value for Arion banki hf is kr 29.56 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 14.10.
What is the quality score of ARION-SDB?
Arion banki hf has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 29.56 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 22.17, optimistic scenario kr 36.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arion banki hf stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 29.56, about +110% upside versus a price of kr 14.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 22.17, optimistic scenario kr 36.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
Arion banki hf reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 71.6B ISK (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Arion banki hf pay a dividend?
Arion banki hf currently shows a dividend yield of 6.93% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arion banki hf it is kr 29.56 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of kr 14.10. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arion banki hf stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, ARION-SDB trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 14.10, fair value kr 29.56, a gap of about +110% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARION-SDB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 14.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 29.56). For Arion banki hf the two are kr 15.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arion banki hf worth?
The market values Arion banki hf at about 19.2B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is kr 14.10; our models calculate a fair value of kr 29.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARION-SDB?
Our models span a range for Arion banki hf: cautious scenario kr 22.17, base kr 29.56, optimistic kr 36.95 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price kr 14.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARION-SDB?
Arion banki hf trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 29.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 13.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arion banki hf (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 14.4%, debt of 2.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARION-SDB from its 52-week high?
Arion banki hf trades at kr 14.10, about 8% below its 52-week high of kr 15.30 and 8% above the low of kr 13.10 (as of Oct 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 29.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arion banki hf?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arion banki hf stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price kr 14.10, calculated fair value kr 29.56 (+110%), Quality Score 56/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARION-SDB calculated?
We run Arion banki hf through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 29.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Arion banki hf currently trades 52 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was kr 14.10. Our model-based fair value is kr 29.56, about +110% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arion banki hf right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 22.17). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB) come from?
Earnings per share at Arion banki hf grew +2.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.3 %, EBIT margin −6.3 %, tax rate −1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Arion banki hf

How large is the market capitalisation of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
The market capitalisation of Arion banki hf is 19.2B SEK (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arion banki hf is 1.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
Earnings per share at Arion banki hf are kr 1.79 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
The dividend yield of Arion banki hf is 6.9% (payout 54.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
The net margin of Arion banki hf is 16.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arion banki hf is 14.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arion banki hf is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
Revenue at Arion banki hf is growing −2.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB)?
Earnings per share at Arion banki hf are growing −9.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB) generate?
The free cash flow of Arion banki hf is −907M ISK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Arion banki hf (ARION-SDB) carry?
The net debt of Arion banki hf is 389B ISK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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