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Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arrow Financial Corporation stock $21.61, price $38.47, that is 43.8% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

AF Arrow Financial Corporation logo Broad data Nov 8, 2026

Arrow Financial Corporation

AROW · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 44% below what the stock costs today.

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +10.9 %/yr in USD)
Highly profitable · 23.6% net margin (TTM)
3.1% dividend yield · Low payout
Broad data
Revenue last quarter +40% vs. a year ago.
Quality 56/100
Moderate moat 54/100
Insiders sold $158,605 (6M)
Fair value $21.61 · Strongly overvalued (−43.8%)
Trails peers (5/15)
Downbeat coverage
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$42.17 $14.51 Fair Value $21.61 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.51 – $42.17 · fair‑value band $19.82 – $25.56 · the $38.47 price screens above the $21.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Arrow Financial Corporation, a bank holding company, provides various commercial and consumer banking, and financial products and services in the United States.

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The company's deposit products include demand deposits, interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, time deposits, and other time deposits.

Its lending activities comprise commercial loans, such as term loans, time notes, and lines of credit; and commercial real estate loans to finance real estate purchases, refinancing, expansions, and enhancement to commercial properties, as well as commercial construction and land development loans to finance projects.

The company's lending activities also include consumer installment loans to finance personal expenditures, personal lines of credit, overdraft protection, and automobile loans; and residential real estate loans, fixed home equity loans, and home equity lines of credit for consumers to finance home improvements, debt consolidation, education, and other uses, as well as maintains an indirect lending program.

In addition, it provides retirement planning, trust, and estate administration services for individuals, as well as pension, profit-sharing, and employee benefit plan administration services for corporations.

Further, the company offers insurance agency services comprising group health care policies and life insurance, and property and casualty insurance products. The company was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Glens Falls, New York.

Stock analysis

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) currently trades at $38.47, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.61, 44% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $30.76 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $38.47 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $13.91, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $19.82 (bear) to $25.56 (bull), the price of $38.47 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Arrow Financial Corporation reported revenue of $243M in FY2025 versus $148M in FY2021, a compound +13.2%/yr. Reported net income was $44.0M in FY2025, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $713M Small · P/E ratio 14.8 · P/S ratio 3.82 · EPS (TTM) $2.60 · Dividend yield 3.1% · Net margin 23.6% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −44%, AROW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $19.82 Fair Value $21.61 Bull $25.56
Price $38.47 · Downside -43.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.21 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $19.82 $21.61 $25.56 76
Gordon GGM $8.25 $15.32 $21.67 67
DDM Multi-Stage $8.25 $12.49 $16.31 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $8.25 $15.32 $21.67 67
DDM Multi-Stage $8.25 $12.49 $16.31 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $23.12 $30.83 $38.53 63
P/B Multiple $23.02 $30.69 $38.36 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $10.96 $14.69 $21.92 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $19.82 $21.61 $25.56 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 30
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 70
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 62
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 2
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 82
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 81
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 51
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 69
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 90
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $158,605 and none bought.

  • SaleMark BehanDirector4,110 shares at $38.59$158,605Jun 17, 2026
  • BuyDavid S. DeMarcoPresident & CEO3,035 shares at $31.78$96,452Dec 24, 2025
  • BuyDaniel James WhiteDirector1,644 shares at $30.14$49,550Nov 10, 2025

Plus 37 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+0.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.1%
Per share before 2018divided by the spin-off factor 1.03
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.0% vs 5.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.36% → 23%
2025 sits 50% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

AROW screens overvalued: fair value 44% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (67 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −43.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 9.5% · Below median
Return on assets 1.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 23.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 13.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 39.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 14.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.65× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 3.82× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 19.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.84× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)38 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)62 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs AROW
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs AROW
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs AROW
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs AROW
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs AROW
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs AROW
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs AROW
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs AROW
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs AROW
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs AROW

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arrow Financial Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AROW

Frequently asked questions

Is Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.61 versus a price of $38.47, about 44% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AROW?
Our model-based fair value for Arrow Financial Corporation is $21.61 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $38.47.
What is the quality score of AROW?
Arrow Financial Corporation has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.61 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.82, optimistic scenario $25.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arrow Financial Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.61, about 44% lower versus a price of $38.47 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $19.82, optimistic scenario $25.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
Arrow Financial Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $187M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Arrow Financial Corporation pay a dividend?
Arrow Financial Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 3.09% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Arrow Financial Corporation pays a dividend of $1.19 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.1%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1985. The payout ratio is 45.8% of earnings. Our assessment: Low payout. A low payout ratio: the dividend takes at most 60 % of earnings. Whether free cash flow covers it as well, we cannot see for this company.
What is the intrinsic value of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arrow Financial Corporation it is $21.61 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $38.47. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Arrow Financial Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, AROW trades above its calculated fair value: price $38.47, fair value $21.61, a gap of about −44% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AROW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($38.47); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.61). For Arrow Financial Corporation the two are $16.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arrow Financial Corporation worth?
The market values Arrow Financial Corporation at about $713M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $38.47; our models calculate a fair value of $21.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AROW?
Our models span a range for Arrow Financial Corporation: cautious scenario $19.82, base $21.61, optimistic $25.56 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $38.47). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AROW?
Arrow Financial Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.8 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.8, P/B 1.7, P/S 3.8, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
What is the PEG ratio of AROW?
The PEG ratio of Arrow Financial Corporation is 2.84 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arrow Financial Corporation (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AROW from its 52-week high?
Arrow Financial Corporation trades at $38.47, about 9% below its 52-week high of $42.17 and 35% above the low of $28.48 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arrow Financial Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arrow Financial Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $38.47, calculated fair value $21.61 (−44%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AROW calculated?
We run Arrow Financial Corporation through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $21.61 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Arrow Financial Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $38.47. Our model-based fair value is $21.61, about 44% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arrow Financial Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) come from?
Earnings per share at Arrow Financial Corporation grew +3.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.6 %, EBIT margin −6.3 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Arrow Financial Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
The market capitalisation of Arrow Financial Corporation is $713M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arrow Financial Corporation is 3.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
Earnings per share at Arrow Financial Corporation are $2.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
The dividend yield of Arrow Financial Corporation is 3.1% (payout 45.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
The net margin of Arrow Financial Corporation is 23.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arrow Financial Corporation is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arrow Financial Corporation is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
The operating margin of Arrow Financial Corporation is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
Revenue at Arrow Financial Corporation is growing +39.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW)?
Earnings per share at Arrow Financial Corporation are growing −59.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) generate?
The free cash flow of Arrow Financial Corporation is $36.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) carry?
The net debt of Arrow Financial Corporation is $62.0K (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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