Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) Fair Value & Analysis

Financial Services · US · Market cap $636M

A solid business, but screening 12% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $14.62 – $42.50 · fair‑value band $25.93 – $43.21 · the $39.40 price screens above the $34.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Arrow Financial Corporation (AROW) currently trades at $39.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $34.57, implying the stock looks roughly 12.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Arrow Financial Corporation generated revenue of $168M at a net margin of 30.4%. Revenue grew 29.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.1%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 12.5. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $25.93 (bear case) to $43.21 (bull case); at $39.40, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -12%, AROW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($34.57) versus Dividend Discount ($13.27). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Arrow Financial Corporation, a bank holding company, provides various commercial and consumer banking, and financial products and services in the United States. The company's deposit products include demand deposits, interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, time deposits, and other time deposits.

Full company description

Arrow Financial Corporation, a bank holding company, provides various commercial and consumer banking, and financial products and services in the United States. The company's deposit products include demand deposits, interest-bearing checking accounts, savings deposits, time deposits, and other time deposits. Its lending activities comprise commercial loans, such as term loans, time notes, and lines of credit; and commercial real estate loans to finance real estate purchases, refinancing, expansions, and enhancement to commercial properties, as well as commercial construction and land development loans to finance projects. The company's lending activities also include consumer installment loans to finance personal expenditures, personal lines of credit, overdraft protection, and automobile loans; and residential real estate loans, fixed home equity loans, and home equity lines of credit for consumers to finance home improvements, debt consolidation, education, and other uses, as well as maintains an indirect lending program. In addition, it provides retirement planning, trust, and estate administration services for individuals, as well as pension, profit-sharing, and employee benefit plan administration services for corporations. Further, the company offers insurance agency services comprising group health care policies and life insurance, and property and casualty insurance products. The company was founded in 1851 and is headquartered in Glens Falls, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Arrow Financial Corporation reported revenue of $243M in FY2025 versus $148M in FY2021, a compound +13.2%/yr. Reported net income was $44.0M in FY2025, compounding −3.1%/yr from FY2021.

AROW screens 12% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

• Arrow Financial Corp. Q2 Profit Climbs Nasdaq · Jul 23, 2026
• Arrow Financial receives OCC approval for Adirondack Bancorp merger Seeking Alpha · Jun 1, 2026
• Friday 9/12 Insider Buying Report: CCEL, AROW Nasdaq · Sep 12, 2025
• Arrow reports q2 net income of $10.8 million, increases dividend Investing.com · Jul 24, 2025

Peer Group

Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.