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Data-driven stock valuation

Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 27, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Arctic Paper S.A. stock SEK 32.63, price SEK 14.05, upside +132.2%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Basic Materials · SE · Home Poland · ISIN PLARTPR00012

AP Arctic Paper S.A. logo Thin data Oct 25, 2026

Arctic Paper S.A.

ARP · ST

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

The stock costs 57% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value kr 32.63 · Strongly undervalued (57%)
Low debt
Quality 40/100
Mixed vs. peers (5/12)
Insider activity 42/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −13.5 %/yr in PLN)
Loss-making · -3.1% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 13/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

kr 64.35 kr 12.37 Fair Value kr 32.63 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 12.37 – kr 64.35 · fair‑value band kr 24.35 – kr 48.71 · the kr 14.05 price screens below the kr 32.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 25, 2026.

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Company profile

Arctic Paper S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces paper and pulp in Poland, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Scandinavia, the rest of Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and internationally. It operates the through Paper and Pulp segments.

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The Paper segment offers uncoated paper for printing or other graphic purposes, including wood-free and wood-containing paper, as well as coated paper, a wood-free paper for printing or other graphic purposes, one-side or two-side coated with mixtures containing mineral pigments, such as China clay, calcium carbonate, etc.

The Pulp segment provides bleached sulphate pulp and unbleached sulphate pulp to produce printing and writing papers, cardboard, toilet paper, white packaging paper, and chemi-thermo mechanical pulp to produce printing and writing paper.

The company is also involved in the production of packaging; generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; heat production and distribution; paper and pulp distribution; provision of logistics services; production of hydropower; and energy storage business.

It markets its products under the Munken, Arctic Volume, G, and Amber brands. The company was founded in 1740 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden. Arctic Paper S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Nemus Holding AB.

Stock analysis

Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) currently trades at kr 14.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 32.63, implying the stock looks roughly 56.9% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 81/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: kr 24.35 (bear) to kr 48.71 (bull), the price of kr 14.05 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Arctic Paper S.A. reported revenue of 3.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 3.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was −98.9M PLN in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 974M SEK (≈ $97.9M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.31 · EPS (TTM) kr −3.60 · Dividend yield 6.9% · Net margin −3.1% · Return on equity −8.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% · Revenue (TTM) 3.3B PLN.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 132%, ARP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear kr 24.35 Fair Value kr 32.63 Bull kr 48.71
Price kr 14.05 · Upside +132.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) kr 24.19 kr 32.41 kr 48.37 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) kr 24.19 kr 32.41 kr 48.37 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 22
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 5
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 8
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 58
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 86
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 82
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 14
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 10/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.6% (2020) → −6.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 119 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +132.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −3.7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −3.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −9.9% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 6.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.28× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 0.12× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 12.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 30
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 36

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Paper & Paper Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited 2689 HK$4.73 HK$14.14 +199% vs ARP
PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk INKP 6,950 IDR 12,738 IDR +83% vs ARP
Empresas CMPC S.A CMPC 939.90 CLP 1,394 CLP +48% vs ARP
Xianhe Co 603733 ¥15.90 ¥21.06 +32% vs ARP
Shandong Sunpaper Co 002078 ¥12.81 ¥16.93 +32% vs ARP
Semapa - Sociedade de Investimento e Gestão, SGPS, S.A SEM €19.56 €23.50 +20% vs ARP
Lee & Man Paper Manufacturing Limited 2314 HK$3.14 HK$2.64 −16% vs ARP
The Navigator Company NVG €2.98 €2.08 −30% vs ARP
UPM-Kymmene Oyj UPM €24.44 €15.50 −37% vs ARP
Billerud AB BILL kr 86.70 kr 49.11 −43% vs ARP

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Arctic Paper S.A. · Fair Value
kr 32.63 +57%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arctic Paper S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARP

Frequently asked questions

Is Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 25, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 32.63 versus a price of kr 14.05, about +132% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ARP?
Our model-based fair value for Arctic Paper S.A. is kr 32.63 (as of Oct 25, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 14.05.
What is the quality score of ARP?
Arctic Paper S.A. has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 32.63 (as of Oct 25, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 24.35, optimistic scenario kr 48.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arctic Paper S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 32.63, about +132% upside versus a price of kr 14.05 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 24.35, optimistic scenario kr 48.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Arctic Paper S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B PLN (latest available figure, as of Oct 25, 2026).
Does Arctic Paper S.A. pay a dividend?
Arctic Paper S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 6.92% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 25, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arctic Paper S.A. it is kr 32.63 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026), against a price of kr 14.05. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arctic Paper S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, ARP trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 14.05, fair value kr 32.63, a gap of about +132% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 14.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 32.63). For Arctic Paper S.A. the two are kr 18.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arctic Paper S.A. worth?
The market values Arctic Paper S.A. at about 974M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Oct 25, 2026). Per share that is kr 14.05; our models calculate a fair value of kr 32.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARP?
Our models span a range for Arctic Paper S.A.: cautious scenario kr 24.35, base kr 32.63, optimistic kr 48.71 per share (as of Oct 25, 2026, price kr 14.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arctic Paper S.A. (as of Oct 25, 2026): return on equity −8.8%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARP from its 52-week high?
Arctic Paper S.A. trades at kr 14.05, about 41% below its 52-week high of kr 23.90 and at the low of kr 14.05 (as of Oct 27, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 32.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arctic Paper S.A.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, Empresas CMPC S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arctic Paper S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 25, 2026: price kr 14.05, calculated fair value kr 32.63 (+132%), Quality Score 40/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARP calculated?
We run Arctic Paper S.A. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 32.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Arctic Paper S.A. currently trades 57 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The closing price on Oct 27, 2026 was kr 14.05. Our model-based fair value is kr 32.63, about +132% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Arctic Paper S.A. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 24.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (kr 24.35 to kr 48.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) come from?
Earnings per share at Arctic Paper S.A. grew +19.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin +8.1 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +9.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Arctic Paper S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The market capitalisation of Arctic Paper S.A. is 974M SEK (≈ $97.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arctic Paper S.A. is 0.31 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Earnings per share at Arctic Paper S.A. are kr −3.60. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The dividend yield of Arctic Paper S.A. is 6.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The net margin of Arctic Paper S.A. is −3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arctic Paper S.A. is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arctic Paper S.A. is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Revenue at Arctic Paper S.A. is growing −9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Earnings per share at Arctic Paper S.A. are growing −93.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) generate?
The free cash flow of Arctic Paper S.A. is −181M PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) carry?
The net debt of Arctic Paper S.A. is 122M PLN (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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