Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Arctic Paper S.A. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 10.58 – kr 64.35 · fair‑value band kr 9.51 – kr 19.02 · the kr 16.34 price screens above the kr 12.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Arctic Paper S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces paper and pulp in Poland, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Scandinavia, the rest of Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and internationally. It operates the through Paper and Pulp segments.
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Arctic Paper S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces paper and pulp in Poland, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Scandinavia, the rest of Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and internationally. It operates the through Paper and Pulp segments. The Paper segment offers uncoated paper for printing or other graphic purposes, including wood-free and wood-containing paper, as well as coated paper, a wood-free paper for printing or other graphic purposes, one-side or two-side coated with mixtures containing mineral pigments, such as China clay, calcium carbonate, etc. The Pulp segment provides bleached sulphate pulp and unbleached sulphate pulp to produce printing and writing papers, cardboard, toilet paper, white packaging paper, and chemi-thermo mechanical pulp to produce printing and writing paper. The company is also involved in the production of packaging; generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; heat production and distribution; paper and pulp distribution; provision of logistics services; production of hydropower; and energy storage business. It markets its products under the Munken, Arctic Volume, G, and Amber brands. The company was founded in 1740 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden. Arctic Paper S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Nemus Holding AB.
Stock analysis
Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) currently trades at kr 16.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 12.75, implying the stock looks roughly 28.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: kr 9.51 (bear) to kr 19.02 (bull), the price of kr 16.34 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Arctic Paper S.A. reported revenue of 3.2B PLN in FY2025 versus 3.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was −98.9M PLN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.1B SEK (≈ $117M) · P/S ratio 0.32 · EPS (TTM) kr −4.04 · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin −3.1% · Return on equity −10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.6% · Revenue (TTM) 3.3B SEK.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at −22%, ARP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 9.51Fair Value kr 12.75Bull kr 19.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.10/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest YoY
−7.7%
Revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.5%
Revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth/yr (17Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
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Share of sales kept as operating profit (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.6% (2020) → −6.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−45% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arctic Paper S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ARP
Frequently asked questions
Is Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 12.75 versus a price of kr 16.34, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARP?
Our model-based fair value for Arctic Paper S.A. is kr 12.75 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 16.34.
What is the quality score of ARP?
Arctic Paper S.A. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 12.75 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 9.51, optimistic scenario kr 19.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Arctic Paper S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 12.75, about −22% upside versus a price of kr 16.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 9.51, optimistic scenario kr 19.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Arctic Paper S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Arctic Paper S.A. pay a dividend?
Arctic Paper S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.62% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Arctic Paper S.A. it is kr 12.75 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of kr 16.34. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Arctic Paper S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, ARP trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 16.34, fair value kr 12.75, a gap of about −22% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 16.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 12.75). For Arctic Paper S.A. the two are kr 3.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Arctic Paper S.A. worth?
The market values Arctic Paper S.A. at about 1.1B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is kr 16.34; our models calculate a fair value of kr 12.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARP?
Our models span a range for Arctic Paper S.A.: cautious scenario kr 9.51, base kr 12.75, optimistic kr 19.02 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price kr 16.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Arctic Paper S.A. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −10.7%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARP from its 52-week high?
Arctic Paper S.A. trades at kr 16.34, about 52% below its 52-week high of kr 34.35 and 9% above the low of kr 14.95 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 12.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Arctic Paper S.A.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Suzano S.A, Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ), Shandong Sunpaper Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Arctic Paper S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price kr 16.34, calculated fair value kr 12.75 (−22%), Quality Score 38/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARP calculated?
We run Arctic Paper S.A. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 12.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Arctic Paper S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Arctic Paper S.A. right now?
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (kr 9.51 to kr 19.02) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) come from?
Earnings per share at Arctic Paper S.A. grew +19.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.7 %, EBIT margin +8.1 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +9.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Arctic Paper S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The market capitalisation of Arctic Paper S.A. is 1.1B SEK (≈ $117M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Arctic Paper S.A. is 0.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Earnings per share at Arctic Paper S.A. are kr −4.04. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The dividend yield of Arctic Paper S.A. is 6.6%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The net margin of Arctic Paper S.A. is −3.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Arctic Paper S.A. is −10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Arctic Paper S.A. is 9.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Revenue at Arctic Paper S.A. is growing −1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP)?
Earnings per share at Arctic Paper S.A. are growing −93.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) generate?
The free cash flow of Arctic Paper S.A. is −181M SEK (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Arctic Paper S.A. (ARP) carry?
The net debt of Arctic Paper S.A. is 122M SEK (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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