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Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Amerigo Resources Ltd $3.46, price $6.28, upside -44.9%, quality 81 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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AR
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Amerigo Resources Ltd
ARREF · USQuality Too ExpensiveExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.
!Fair value $3.46 · Strongly overvalued (−44.9%)
✓Quality 81/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 18.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.8% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 84/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.4731 – $6.44 · fair‑value band $2.15 – $4.65 · the $6.28 price screens above the $3.46 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Amerigo Resources Ltd., through its subsidiary, Minera Valle Central S.A., produces copper and molybdenum concentrates from Corporación Nacional del Cobre de Chile's El Teniente mine in Chile. The company was formerly known as Golden Temple Mining Corp. and changed its name to Amerigo Resources Ltd. in March 2002.
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Amerigo Resources Ltd., through its subsidiary, Minera Valle Central S.A., produces copper and molybdenum concentrates from Corporación Nacional del Cobre de Chile's El Teniente mine in Chile. The company was formerly known as Golden Temple Mining Corp. and changed its name to Amerigo Resources Ltd. in March 2002. The company was incorporated in 1984 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF) currently trades at $6.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.46, 44.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $3.96 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $6.28 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.4800, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.15 (bear) to $4.65 (bull), the price of $6.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Amerigo Resources Ltd reported revenue of $332M in FY2025 versus $301M in FY2021, a compound +2.5%/yr. Reported net income was $35.4M in FY2025, compounding −2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.0B · P/E ratio 22.4 · P/S ratio 2.39 · EPS (TTM) $0.2800 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 42.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 17.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 251% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at −45%, ARREF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.15
Fair Value $3.46
Bull $4.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1285 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$2.37
$3.73
$5.76
79
Growth DCF
$2.34
$3.55
$5.25
78
Owner Earnings
$3.29
$5.23
$8.14
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$2.37
$3.73
$5.76
79
Owner Earnings
$3.29
$5.23
$8.14
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$2.34
$3.83
$5.82
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$3.23
$5.64
$8.64
74
5Y P/E Exit
$2.62
$4.39
$6.38
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$2.26
$3.59
$5.57
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$2.86
$4.79
$7.70
67
10Y P/E Exit
$2.49
$3.96
$5.99
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.49
$6.58
$9.01
64
Lynch FV
$1.70
$2.44
$3.17
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.70
$2.44
$3.17
57
EPV
$2.85
$3.21
$3.51
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.7300
$1.31
$1.81
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.7300
$1.20
$1.40
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.79
$3.72
$4.65
63
P/S Multiple
$2.31
$3.08
$3.85
58
P/B Multiple
$1.60
$2.13
$2.67
55
EV/EBIT
$4.20
$5.52
$6.84
66
EV/EBITDA
$4.11
$5.40
$6.70
67
EV/Revenue
$2.38
$3.31
$4.23
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.3600
$0.4800
$0.7100
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$2.34
$3.55
$5.25
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.34
$3.80
$5.66
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.14
$1.54
$2.80
72
ROIC Compounder
$3.01
$3.58
$4.16
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.50
$3.57
$4.65
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
81/100
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Profitability
80
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
70
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
53
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
3
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
99
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
83
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
98/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
’14
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’20
’21
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’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+38.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+36.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 18%
2025 sits 718% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.9% a year for the price.
ARREF screens overvalued: fair value 45% below the price. Compare with Southern Copper Corporation →
Compare Amerigo Resources Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Copper · 57 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Copper median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Copper stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Copper Corporation SCCO | $202.64 | $157.34 | −22% |
| Freeport-McMoRan Inc FCX | $71.96 | $16.47 | −77% |
| First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM | C$45.54 | C$20.04 | −56% |
| Jiangxi Copper Company 600362 | ¥42.40 | ¥25.87 | −39% |
| Lundin Mining Corporation LUN | C$33.93 | C$37.32 | +10% |
| KGHM Polska Miedz S.A KGH | 335.30 PLN | 156.13 PLN | −53% |
| MMG Limited 1208 | HK$8.55 | HK$9.40 | +10% |
| Hudbay Minerals Inc HBM | $26.87 | $21.22 | −21% |
| Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group 000630 | ¥5.89 | ¥2.16 | −63% |
| Capstone Copper Corp CS | C$14.54 | C$9.74 | −33% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.46 versus a price of $6.28, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ARREF?
Our model-based fair value for Amerigo Resources Ltd is $3.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.28.
What is the quality score of ARREF?
Amerigo Resources Ltd has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.15, optimistic scenario $4.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Amerigo Resources Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.46, about −45% upside versus a price of $6.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.15, optimistic scenario $4.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
Amerigo Resources Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $249M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Amerigo Resources Ltd pay a dividend?
Amerigo Resources Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Amerigo Resources Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +28.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ARREF use?
Our models discount Amerigo Resources Ltd at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 2.08, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Amerigo Resources Ltd that is +28.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Amerigo Resources Ltd grew +13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +28.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Amerigo Resources Ltd (+28.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.08 %: that much free cash flow Amerigo Resources Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Amerigo Resources Ltd it is $3.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $6.28. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Amerigo Resources Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ARREF trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.28, fair value $3.46, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ARREF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.46). For Amerigo Resources Ltd the two are $2.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Amerigo Resources Ltd worth?
The market values Amerigo Resources Ltd at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $6.28; our models calculate a fair value of $3.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ARREF?
Our models span a range for Amerigo Resources Ltd: cautious scenario $2.15, base $3.46, optimistic $4.65 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $6.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ARREF?
Amerigo Resources Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 6.9, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of ARREF?
The PEG ratio of Amerigo Resources Ltd is 0.30 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Amerigo Resources Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 42.1%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ARREF from its 52-week high?
Amerigo Resources Ltd trades at $6.28, about 2% below its 52-week high of $6.44 and 251% above the low of $1.79 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Amerigo Resources Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Southern Copper Corporation, Freeport-McMoRan Inc, First Quantum Minerals Ltd, Jiangxi Copper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Amerigo Resources Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $6.28, calculated fair value $3.46 (−45%), Quality Score 81/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ARREF calculated?
We run Amerigo Resources Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Amerigo Resources Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $6.28. Our model-based fair value is $3.46, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Amerigo Resources Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 81/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($2.15 to $4.65) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Amerigo Resources Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
The market capitalisation of Amerigo Resources Ltd is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Amerigo Resources Ltd is 2.39 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
Earnings per share at Amerigo Resources Ltd are $0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
The dividend yield of Amerigo Resources Ltd is 1.8% (payout 39.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
The net margin of Amerigo Resources Ltd is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Amerigo Resources Ltd is 42.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Amerigo Resources Ltd is 17.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
The operating margin of Amerigo Resources Ltd is 38.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
Revenue at Amerigo Resources Ltd is growing +49.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF)?
Earnings per share at Amerigo Resources Ltd are growing +350% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Amerigo Resources Ltd (ARREF) carry?
The net debt of Amerigo Resources Ltd is $28.7M (fiscal year 2020, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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