Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $484M
Algoma Steel Group Inc
ASTL · US
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from $0.8000 to $0.8100 (+1.3%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −7.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and trading another 393% above our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.9300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.19 – $11.88 · fair‑value band $0.6900 – $0.9300 · the $3.99 price screens above the $0.8100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) currently trades at $3.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8100, implying the stock looks roughly 79.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Algoma Steel Group Inc generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of -60.0%. Revenue declined 42.6% year over year. Net debt stands at $785M. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.6900 (bear case) to $0.9300 (bull case); at $3.99, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -17% fair-value upside, at -80%, ASTL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($3.12) versus Dividend Discount ($1.18). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for the automotive industry, hollow structural tube product manufacturers, and the …
Full company description
Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company offers flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for the automotive industry, hollow structural tube product manufacturers, and the light manufacturing and transportation industries; and plate steel products consisting of rolled, hot-rolled, and heat-treated for use in the construction or manufacture of railcars, buildings, bridges, off-highway equipment, storage tanks, ships, armored products for military applications, diameter pipelines, and wind energy generation equipment. It also provides by-products, such as furnace and buckwheat coke, braize coke, and flue dust; high sulpur beach and kish iron, BOF pit grissly and scrap, BOF and pellet fines, and mill roll scale; light oil and coal tar; granulated and air cooled slag; and machine shop turnings, used mill rolls, recycled oil, non-ferrous metal, and lime fines. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Sault Sainte Marie, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Algoma Steel Group Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2026 versus $3.8B in FY2022, a compound −14.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$985M in FY2026.
ASTL screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Nucor Corporation →
Peer Group
Steel · 403 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Steel median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nucor Corporation NUE | $271.81 | $116.05 | -57% |
| ArcelorMittal S.A MT | €64.18 | €53.35 | -17% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,296 | ₹1,119 | -14% |
| Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD | $228.68 | $127.14 | -44% |
| 500228 500228 | ₹1,292 | ₹1,079 | -16% |
| Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL | ₹186.20 | ₹145.39 | -22% |
| Reliance, Inc RS | $427.11 | $217.81 | -49% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.91 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| POSCO Holdings PKX | $57.09 | $83.53 | +46% |
| Jindal Steel & Power Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,114 | ₹429.44 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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