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Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 30, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Algoma Steel Group Inc stock $2.23, price $4.77, upside -53.2%, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials US · Home Canada · ISIN CA0156581070

AS Algoma Steel Group Inc logo Thin data Oct 31, 2026

Algoma Steel Group Inc

ASTL · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 53% below what the stock costs today.

Moderate debt
Revenue last quarter 55% below a year ago.
Fair value $2.23 · Strongly overvalued (−53.2%)
Quality 31/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −9.1 %/yr in CAD)
Loss-making · -71.6% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/11)
Narrow moat 6/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.88 $3.19 Fair Value $2.23 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.19 – $11.88 · fair‑value band $1.66 – $3.33 · the $4.77 price screens above the $2.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 31, 2026.

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Company profile

Algoma Steel Group Inc. produces and sells steel products in Canada, the United States, and internationally.

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The company offers flat/sheet steel products, including temper rolling, cold rolled, hot-rolled pickled and oiled products, floor plate, and cut-to-length products for the automotive industry, hollow structural tube product manufacturers, and the light manufacturing and transportation industries; and plate steel products consisting of rolled, hot-rolled, and heat-treated for use in the construction or manufacture of railcars, buildings, bridges, off-highway equipment, storage tanks, ships, armored products for military applications, diameter pipelines, and wind energy generation equipment.

It also provides by-products, such as furnace and buckwheat coke, braize coke, and flue dust; high sulpur beach and kish iron, BOF pit grissly and scrap, BOF and pellet fines, and mill roll scale; light oil and coal tar; granulated and air cooled slag; and machine shop turnings, used mill rolls, recycled oil, non-ferrous metal, and lime fines.

The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Sault Sainte Marie, Canada.

Stock analysis

Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) currently trades at $4.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.23, 53.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $1.66 (bear) to $3.33 (bull), the price of $4.77 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Algoma Steel Group Inc reported revenue of C$2.1B in FY2026 versus C$3.8B in FY2022, a compound −14.0%/yr. Reported net income was −C$985M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $521M Small · P/S ratio 0.34 · EPS (TTM) $−4.96 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin −47.2% · Return on equity −139% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4% · Operating margin −51.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −53%, ASTL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.66 Fair Value $2.23 Bull $3.33
Price $4.77 · Upside -53.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $1.66 $2.23 $3.32 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.66 $2.23 $3.32 54

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 15
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 2
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 12
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 75
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 6
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 48
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 53
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 86
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 10/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.7% (2021) → −37.3% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

ASTL screens overvalued: fair value 53% below the price. Compare with Nucor Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 408 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −53.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −46.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −71.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −51.4% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −54.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.38× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.48× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.47× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 34
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)31 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)40 · sector 50

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥6.00 ¥8.07 +35% vs ASTL
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹167.60 ₹148.06 −12% vs ASTL
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,246 ₹1,029 −17% vs ASTL
ArcelorMittal S.A MT €53.50 €35.86 −33% vs ASTL
POSCO Holdings PKX $52.14 $28.95 −44% vs ASTL
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $250.80 $133.90 −47% vs ASTL
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,060 ₹516.03 −51% vs ASTL
Reliance, Inc RS $439.71 $211.54 −52% vs ASTL
Nucor Corporation NUE $273.87 $116.49 −57% vs ASTL
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥1.98 ¥0.5400 −73% vs ASTL

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Algoma Steel Group Inc · Fair Value
$2.23 −53%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Algoma Steel Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ASTL

Frequently asked questions

Is Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.23 versus a price of $4.77, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ASTL?
Our model-based fair value for Algoma Steel Group Inc is $2.23 (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.77.
What is the quality score of ASTL?
Algoma Steel Group Inc has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.23 (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.66, optimistic scenario $3.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Algoma Steel Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.23, about −53% upside versus a price of $4.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.66, optimistic scenario $3.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
Algoma Steel Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 31, 2026).
Does Algoma Steel Group Inc pay a dividend?
Algoma Steel Group Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.01% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 31, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Algoma Steel Group Inc it is $2.23 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of $4.77. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Algoma Steel Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 31, 2026, ASTL trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.77, fair value $2.23, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ASTL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.23). For Algoma Steel Group Inc the two are $2.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Algoma Steel Group Inc worth?
The market values Algoma Steel Group Inc at about $521M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is $4.77; our models calculate a fair value of $2.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ASTL?
Our models span a range for Algoma Steel Group Inc: cautious scenario $1.66, base $2.23, optimistic $3.33 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price $4.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Algoma Steel Group Inc (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity −139.1%, debt of 1.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ASTL from its 52-week high?
Algoma Steel Group Inc trades at $4.77, about 18% below its 52-week high of $5.80 and 45% above the low of $3.28 (as of Oct 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Algoma Steel Group Inc?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Algoma Steel Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price $4.77, calculated fair value $2.23 (−53%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ASTL calculated?
We run Algoma Steel Group Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Algoma Steel Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
The closing price on Oct 30, 2026 was $4.77. Our model-based fair value is $2.23, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Algoma Steel Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.66 to $3.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Algoma Steel Group Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
The market capitalisation of Algoma Steel Group Inc is $521M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Algoma Steel Group Inc is 0.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
Earnings per share at Algoma Steel Group Inc are $−4.96. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
The dividend yield of Algoma Steel Group Inc is 2.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
The net margin of Algoma Steel Group Inc is −47.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Algoma Steel Group Inc is −139% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Algoma Steel Group Inc is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
The operating margin of Algoma Steel Group Inc is −51.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
Revenue at Algoma Steel Group Inc is growing −54.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL)?
Earnings per share at Algoma Steel Group Inc are growing −93.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) generate?
The free cash flow of Algoma Steel Group Inc is −C$395M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Algoma Steel Group Inc (ASTL) carry?
The net debt of Algoma Steel Group Inc is C$785M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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