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Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Australian Vintage Ltd $0.01, price $0.01, upside -3.3%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? No
Good quality? No
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Consumer Defensive · US · ISIN AU000000AVG6

Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Australian Vintage Ltd

AUVGF · US

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value $0.0133 · Fairly valued (−3.3%)

!Quality 33/100

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.8 %/yr)

!Loss-making · -12.2% net margin (TTM)

!Low debt · negative free cash flow

!Narrow moat 17/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

26 models, one by oneBear $0.0124 to bull $0.0144 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 33/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0034 – $0.1416 · fair‑value band $0.0124 – $0.0144 · the $0.0138 price screens above the $0.0133 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Australian Vintage Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, produces, packages, markets, and distributes wine in Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. The company offers wine under the Barossa Valley Wine Company, Chateau Marmalade, CTZN, Poco Vino, McGuigan, Lemsecco, Nepenthe, Not Guilty, Passion Pop, Tempus Two, The Butcher's Cellar, The Shy Pig, Kilkenny Cream, Mr Stubbs, and Tempus One brand names. It also engages in the growing of grapes; sale of concentrate and commercial products; and sells alcoholic and non-alcoholic wine, and other beverages. It sells its products through retail, wholesale, and distribution channels. The company was formerly known as McGuigan Simeon Wines Ltd. and changed its name to Australian Vintage Ltd in February 2008. Australian Vintage Ltd was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Cowandilla, Australia.

Stock analysis

Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF) currently trades at $0.0138, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0133, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.4%).

Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 6 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.0124 (bear) to $0.0144 (bull), the price of $0.0138 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Australian Vintage Ltd reported revenue of A$257M in FY2025 versus A$274M in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was −A$9.6M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $4.5M · EPS (TTM) $−0.0700 · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity −16.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.3% · Operating margin −3.7% · Revenue (TTM) A$255M · Revenue growth (YoY) −1.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 81% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 34% fair-value upside, at −3%, AUVGF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.0124 Fair Value $0.0133 Bull $0.0144

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

EV/EBITDA $0.1800 $0.2900 $0.4100 65

NCAV (Graham) $0.2000 $0.2700 $0.4000 54

All 2 models by family

Multiples

EV/EBITDA $0.1800 $0.2900 $0.4100 65

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $0.2000 $0.2700 $0.4000 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 16

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 69

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 9

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 30

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 99

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 50

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 37

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 41

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 0

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 3/100

Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Revenue growth 1 year

−1.3%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−0.4%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

−0.8%

Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.1% a year

Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+5.1%

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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.

3.5% (2020) → 0.7% (2025)

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss

not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries · 92 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures

Overall it trails its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +120.4% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on assets −1.7% · Bottom 25%

Net margin (TTM) −12.2% · Bottom 25%

Operating margin (TTM) −3.7% · Bottom 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth −1.7% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.44× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

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Thai Beverage Public Company Y92	0.4400 SGD	0.7300 SGD	+66%
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Radico Khaitan Limited RADICO	₹4,557	₹947.39	−79%
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co 603369	¥26.92	¥38.66	+44%
Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co 603198	¥37.20	¥30.27	−19%

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Australian Vintage Ltd · Fair Value
$0.0133 −3%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AUVGF" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Australian Vintage Ltd · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$0.0133</b> <span style="color:#e0816f;font-weight:700;font-size:14px">−3%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Australian Vintage Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AUVGF

Frequently asked questions

Is Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0133 versus a price of $0.0138, about −3% upside (fairly valued).

What is the fair value of AUVGF?

Our model-based fair value for Australian Vintage Ltd is $0.0133 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0138.

What is the quality score of AUVGF?

Australian Vintage Ltd has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0133 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0124, optimistic scenario $0.0144. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Australian Vintage Ltd stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $0.0133, about −3% upside versus a price of $0.0138 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.0124, optimistic scenario $0.0144. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

Australian Vintage Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$255M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Australian Vintage Ltd it is $0.0133 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0138. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Australian Vintage Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Sep 24, 2026, AUVGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0138, fair value $0.0133, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of AUVGF?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0138); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0133). For Australian Vintage Ltd the two are $0.0005 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Australian Vintage Ltd worth?

The market values Australian Vintage Ltd at about $4.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0138; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0133 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AUVGF?

Our models span a range for Australian Vintage Ltd: cautious scenario $0.0124, base $0.0133, optimistic $0.0144 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.0138). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

How solid is the balance sheet of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

Balance-sheet figures for Australian Vintage Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −16.2%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is AUVGF from its 52-week high?

Australian Vintage Ltd trades at $0.0138, about 81% below its 52-week high of $0.0726 and at the low of $0.0138 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0133 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Australian Vintage Ltd?

From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Kweichow Moutai Co, Wuliangye Yibin Co, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co, Pernod Ricard SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Australian Vintage Ltd stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0138, calculated fair value $0.0133 (−3%), Quality Score 33/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of AUVGF calculated?

We run Australian Vintage Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0133, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Australian Vintage Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was $0.0138. Our model-based fair value is $0.0133, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Australian Vintage Ltd right now?

The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Where does the earnings growth of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF) come from?

Earnings per share at Australian Vintage Ltd grew −2.5 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.4 %, EBIT margin −2.4 %, tax rate +1.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Australian Vintage Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

The market capitalisation of Australian Vintage Ltd is $4.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What are the earnings per share of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

Earnings per share at Australian Vintage Ltd are $−0.0700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the net margin of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

The net margin of Australian Vintage Ltd is −3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Australian Vintage Ltd is −16.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Australian Vintage Ltd is −0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

The operating margin of Australian Vintage Ltd is −3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

Revenue at Australian Vintage Ltd is growing −1.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF)?

Earnings per share at Australian Vintage Ltd are growing −78.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF) generate?

The free cash flow of Australian Vintage Ltd is −A$14.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Australian Vintage Ltd (AUVGF) carry?

The net debt of Australian Vintage Ltd is A$133M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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