AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 24, 2026: fair value of AvalonBay Communities Inc $51.89, price $68.14, upside -23.9%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.62 – $79.90 · fair‑value band $30.22 – $85.05 · the $68.14 price screens above the $51.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT.
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AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires and manages communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. As of December 31, 2025, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 320 communities containing 98,694 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 24 communities were under development. AvalonBay Communities, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 in Maryland and is based in Arlington, Virginia.
Stock analysis
AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) currently trades at $68.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $51.89, 23.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $60.41 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $68.14 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.17, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $30.22 (bear) to $85.05 (bull), the price of $68.14 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
AvalonBay Communities Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +1.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $26.3B · P/E ratio 25.2 · P/S ratio 8.75 · EPS (TTM) $7.29 · Dividend yield 10.4% · Net margin 34.6% · Return on equity 8.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at −24%, AVB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $30.22Fair Value $51.89Bull $85.05
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1739 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.1% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.7% vs 3.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 30%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.7% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Residential · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−23.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)33.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)30.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.74× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper
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Is AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $51.89 versus the last price from Aug 24, 2026 of $68.14, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVB?
Our model-based fair value for AvalonBay Communities Inc is $51.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 24, 2026): $68.14.
What is the quality score of AVB?
AvalonBay Communities Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $51.89 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.22, optimistic scenario $85.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AvalonBay Communities Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $51.89, about −24% upside versus the last price from Aug 24, 2026 of $68.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $30.22, optimistic scenario $85.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
AvalonBay Communities Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does AvalonBay Communities Inc pay a dividend?
AvalonBay Communities Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.36% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AvalonBay Communities Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVB use?
Our models discount AvalonBay Communities Inc at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AvalonBay Communities Inc that is -0.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AvalonBay Communities Inc grew +5.7 % a year. The price currently implies -0.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AvalonBay Communities Inc (-0.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.63 %: that much free cash flow AvalonBay Communities Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AvalonBay Communities Inc it is $51.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $68.14. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AvalonBay Communities Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AVB trades above its calculated fair value: price $68.14, fair value $51.89, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($68.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($51.89). For AvalonBay Communities Inc the two are $16.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AvalonBay Communities Inc worth?
The market values AvalonBay Communities Inc at about $26.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $68.14; our models calculate a fair value of $51.89 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVB?
Our models span a range for AvalonBay Communities Inc: cautious scenario $30.22, base $51.89, optimistic $85.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $68.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVB?
AvalonBay Communities Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $51.89 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 13.6 (reported for FY2025: 9.2). Other multiples: PEG 7.0, P/B 2.3, P/S 8.5, EV/EBITDA 18.7.
What is the PEG ratio of AVB?
The PEG ratio of AvalonBay Communities Inc is 6.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
Balance-sheet figures for AvalonBay Communities Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVB from its 52-week high?
AvalonBay Communities Inc trades at $68.14, about 3% below its 52-week high of $70.00 and 21% above the low of $56.42 (as of Aug 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $51.89 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AvalonBay Communities Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Comcast Holdings, Essex Property Trust, Inc, Sun Communities, Inc, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AvalonBay Communities Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $68.14, calculated fair value $51.89 (−24%), Quality Score 66/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVB calculated?
We run AvalonBay Communities Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $51.89, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AvalonBay Communities Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 24, 2026 and stands at $68.14. Our model-based fair value is $51.89, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AvalonBay Communities Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($30.22 to $85.05). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) come from?
Earnings per share at AvalonBay Communities Inc grew +1.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.4 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AvalonBay Communities Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
The market capitalisation of AvalonBay Communities Inc is $26.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AvalonBay Communities Inc is 8.75 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
Earnings per share at AvalonBay Communities Inc are $7.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
The dividend yield of AvalonBay Communities Inc is 10.4% (payout 143%, on adjusted earnings, reported 96.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
The net margin of AvalonBay Communities Inc is 34.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AvalonBay Communities Inc is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AvalonBay Communities Inc is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
The operating margin of AvalonBay Communities Inc is 30.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
Revenue at AvalonBay Communities Inc is growing +2.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
Earnings per share at AvalonBay Communities Inc are growing −41.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) carry?
The net debt of AvalonBay Communities Inc is $9.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026