AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AvalonBay Communities Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
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Real Estate · US · Market cap $26.3B · ISIN US0534841012
At a glance
ACAvalonBay Communities IncAVB · US
Price from Aug 24, 2026$68.14
Fair Value$125.31
Upside+83.9%
Quality66/100
A solid business, trading 46% below our fair value of $125.31.
As of Aug 16, 2026, the fair value of AvalonBay Communities Inc is $125.31 per share against a price of $68.14, so the fair value sits 84% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +5.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 33.3% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·10.32% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)
✓Wide moat 68/100
!Weak on future: 12 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange $70.98 to $156.63
Fair value as of: Aug 16, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 16, 2026, revised from $126.12 to $125.31 (−0.6%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −64.1% over the past month.
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($70.98). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
A fairly wide model range ($70.98 to $156.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $64.37 – $223.17 · fair‑value band $70.98 – $156.63 · the $68.14 price screens below the $125.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.
AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) currently trades at $68.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $125.31, implying the stock looks roughly 45.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $48.77 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $68.14 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $20.17, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, AvalonBay Communities Inc generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 37.3%. Revenue grew 2.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. Net debt stands at $9.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 16, 2026
Scenario range: $70.98 (bear) to $156.63 (bull), the price of $68.14 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at 84%, AVB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7209 per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio22.3as of Jun 18, 2026
P/S ratio7.71P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)$8.07price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.3
Dividend yield10.3%payout 87.1%
Net margin34.6%FY2025
Return on equity9.7%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)3.9%avg 5y
Operating margin29.3%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)$3.1BTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+2.5%3y avg +5.4%
EPS growth (YoY)+40.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow$1.4BFY2025
Net debt$9.1BFY2025 · ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality66/100
Of which business quality 62
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Profitability40
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment81
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance81
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires and manages communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of …
Full company description
AvalonBay Communities, Inc., a member of the S&P 500, is an equity REIT. The firm develops, redevelops, acquires and manages communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion regions of Raleigh-Durham and Charlotte, North Carolina, Southeast Florida, Dallas and Austin, Texas, and Denver, Colorado. As of December 31, 2025, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 320 communities containing 98,694 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 24 communities were under development. AvalonBay Communities, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 in Maryland and is based in Arlington, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AvalonBay Communities Inc reported revenue of $3.0B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +1.2%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.0B
Latest YoY
+4.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (31Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+4.7%
Dividend yield10.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 4.7% vs 10Y 3.0%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30.9% (2020) → 30.1% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop52% (2010) · in USD
Revenue+7.3%/yr
FY21$2.3B
FY22$2.6B
FY23$2.8B
FY24$2.9B
FY25$3.0B
Net income+1.2%/yr
FY21$1.0B
FY22$1.1B
FY23$929M
FY24$1.1B
FY25$1.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025)+1.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share+4.4 %
of which total revenue +5.1 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %
EBIT margin−2.0 %
Tax rate+0.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)−0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+84% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)33% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)31% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)10.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.74× · Below median
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Residential median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)22.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.26× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)8.52× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF18.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.7× · Pricier than median
PEG6.97× · Pricier than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must AvalonBay Communities Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+0.3 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+5.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price14.61 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.7 %
The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 8
FUTURE12· sector 12
PAST34· sector 6
HEALTH63· sector 62
DIVIDEND100· sector 77
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Residential stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 16, 2026).
Is AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $125.31 versus the last price from Aug 24, 2026 of $68.14, about +84% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AVB?
Our model-based fair value for AvalonBay Communities Inc is $125.31 (as of Aug 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 24, 2026): $68.14.
What is the quality score of AVB?
AvalonBay Communities Inc has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $125.31 (as of Aug 16, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $70.98, optimistic scenario $156.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AvalonBay Communities Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $125.31, about +84% upside versus the last price from Aug 24, 2026 of $68.14 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $70.98, optimistic scenario $156.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
AvalonBay Communities Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of AVB?
The net profit margin of AvalonBay Communities Inc is about 37.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 37.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does AvalonBay Communities Inc pay a dividend?
AvalonBay Communities Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.32% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 16, 2026).
What growth is priced into AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AvalonBay Communities Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +0.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.7 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.7 % per year. As of Aug 16, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVB use?
Our models discount AvalonBay Communities Inc at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AvalonBay Communities Inc it is $125.31 per share (as of Aug 16, 2026), against a price of $68.14. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AvalonBay Communities Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 16, 2026, AVB trades below its calculated fair value: price $68.14, fair value $125.31, a gap of about +84% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($68.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($125.31). For AvalonBay Communities Inc the two are $57.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AvalonBay Communities Inc worth?
The market values AvalonBay Communities Inc at about $26.3B (market capitalisation, as of Aug 16, 2026). Per share that is $68.14; our models calculate a fair value of $125.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVB?
Our models span a range for AvalonBay Communities Inc: cautious scenario $70.98, base $125.31, optimistic $156.63 per share (as of Aug 16, 2026, price $68.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVB?
AvalonBay Communities Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.3 (as of Aug 16, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $125.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.0, P/B 2.3, P/S 8.5, EV/EBITDA 18.7.
What is the PEG ratio of AVB?
The PEG ratio of AvalonBay Communities Inc is 6.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 16, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AvalonBay Communities Inc (AVB)?
Balance-sheet figures for AvalonBay Communities Inc (as of Aug 16, 2026): return on equity 8.5%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVB from its 52-week high?
AvalonBay Communities Inc trades at $68.14, about 66% below its 52-week high of $201.98 (as of Aug 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $125.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AvalonBay Communities Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value EQR, Essex Property Trust, Inc, Invitation Homes, Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AvalonBay Communities Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 16, 2026: price $68.14, calculated fair value $125.31 (+84%), Quality Score 66/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVB calculated?
We run AvalonBay Communities Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $125.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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AvalonBay Communities Inc
AVB · US