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Avada Group Ltd (AVD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Avada Group Ltd stock A$0.04, price A$0.08, that is 49.0% below the price, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 5 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials AU · ISIN AU0000187932

AG Avada Group Ltd logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

Avada Group Ltd

AVD · AU
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 49% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +17% vs. a year ago.
Quality 40/100
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +14.6 %/yr in AUD)
Moderate debt
Fair value A$0.0403 · Strongly overvalued
Loss-making · -7.2% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (3/10)
Narrow moat 15/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Thinly traded⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.9700 A$0.0700 Fair Value A$0.0403 Dec 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

59‑month range A$0.0700 – A$0.9700 · fair‑value band A$0.0403 – A$0.0719 · the A$0.0790 price screens above the A$0.0403 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

AVADA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides traffic management and ancillary services in Australia and New Zealand. The company offers traffic control, equipment hire, plans and permits, event management, and incident response services.

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It serves government and contractors in civil infrastructure, contractors in the utilities, telecommunications, construction, maintenance, and other industrial sectors. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Woolloongabba, Australia.

Stock analysis

Avada Group Ltd (AVD) currently trades at A$0.0790, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0403, 49% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$0.1700 per share, and 2 of the 5 models we run sit above the A$0.0790 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0300, and 3 of the 5 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: A$0.0403 (bear) to A$0.0719 (bull), the price of A$0.0790 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Avada Group Ltd reported revenue of A$210M in FY2026 versus A$72.9M in FY2022, a compound +30.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$15.2M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$6.7M (≈ $4.6M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.03 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1800 · Net margin −7.2% · Return on equity −48.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.3% · Revenue (TTM) A$211M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 15 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 62% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −49%, AVD screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0403 Fair Value A$0.0403 Bull A$0.0719
Price A$0.0790 · Downside -49.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV n/a A$0.0300 A$0.0700 68
ROIC Compounder n/a A$0.0300 A$0.0700 68
EV/EBITDA A$0.6300 A$0.9900 A$1.35 66
All 5 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV n/a A$0.0300 A$0.0700 68
Multiples
EV/EBIT A$0.0100 A$0.1700 A$0.3200 57
EV/EBITDA A$0.6300 A$0.9900 A$1.35 66
EV/Revenue n/a A$0.0200 >A$0.0800 50
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder n/a A$0.0300 A$0.0700 68

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 26
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 22
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 19
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 3
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 55
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 35/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.1% (2020) → 1.5% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

AVD screens overvalued: fair value 49% below the price. Compare with Transurban Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 60 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −49.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −15.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −7.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 3.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 17.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.39× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.28× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 0.03× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 4.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)87 · sector 3
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)30 · sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 82

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 HK$6.31 HK$16.44 +161% vs AVD
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 ¥10.37 ¥13.02 +26% vs AVD
Anhui Expressway Company 600012 ¥17.67 ¥19.56 +11% vs AVD
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 ¥13.73 ¥15.10 +10% vs AVD
Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 ¥8.73 ¥9.60 +10% vs AVD
Sichuan Expressway Company 601107 ¥7.10 ¥7.81 +10% vs AVD
Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 ¥13.88 ¥14.47 +4% vs AVD
Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 ¥11.11 ¥8.02 −28% vs AVD
Transurban Group TCL A$14.67 A$4.92 −66% vs AVD
CUBEINVIT CUBEINVIT ₹152.44 ₹44.34 −71% vs AVD

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Avada Group Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avada Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVD

Frequently asked questions

Is Avada Group Ltd (AVD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0403 versus a price of A$0.0790, about 49% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVD?
Our model-based fair value for Avada Group Ltd is A$0.0403 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0790.
What is the quality score of AVD?
Avada Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0403 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0403, optimistic scenario A$0.0719. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avada Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0403, about 49% lower versus a price of A$0.0790 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0403, optimistic scenario A$0.0719. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
Avada Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$211M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avada Group Ltd it is A$0.0403 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of A$0.0790. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models in 3 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Economic Profit).
Is Avada Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, AVD trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0790, fair value A$0.0403, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVD?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0790); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0403). For Avada Group Ltd the two are A$0.0387 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avada Group Ltd worth?
The market values Avada Group Ltd at about A$6.7M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0790; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0403 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVD?
Our models span a range for Avada Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0403, base A$0.0403, optimistic A$0.0719 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price A$0.0790). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avada Group Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −48.7%, debt of 1.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVD from its 52-week high?
Avada Group Ltd trades at A$0.0790, about 62% below its 52-week high of A$0.2100 and 13% above the low of A$0.0700 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0403 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avada Group Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avada Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price A$0.0790, calculated fair value A$0.0403 (−49%), Quality Score 40/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVD calculated?
We run Avada Group Ltd through 5 models from 3 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.0403 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Avada Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was A$0.0790. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0403, about 49% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avada Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0719). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Avada Group Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
The market capitalisation of Avada Group Ltd is A$6.7M (≈ $4.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avada Group Ltd is 0.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
Earnings per share at Avada Group Ltd are A$−0.1800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
The net margin of Avada Group Ltd is −7.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avada Group Ltd is −48.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avada Group Ltd is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
The operating margin of Avada Group Ltd is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avada Group Ltd (AVD)?
Revenue at Avada Group Ltd is growing +17.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Avada Group Ltd (AVD) generate?
The free cash flow of Avada Group Ltd is −A$5.4M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Avada Group Ltd (AVD) carry?
The net debt of Avada Group Ltd is A$38.1M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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