Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Avia Avian PT Tbk IDR 388, price IDR 344, upside +12.7%, quality 77 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Avia Avian Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes paints and building materials in Indonesia. It operates in two segments, Architectural Solutions and Trading Goods.
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PT Avia Avian Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes paints and building materials in Indonesia. It operates in two segments, Architectural Solutions and Trading Goods. The company offers wall paint, special effects and texture paint, waterproofing paint, wood and iron paint, wood preservative, primer, putty, and roof and zinc paint products; and instant cement, including skim coat, lightweight brick adhesive, tile adhesive, instant putty, and plaster adhesive. It also provides glue, natural stone coating, grout filler, duco and spray paint, protective coating, marine coating, floor paint, paint thinner, concrete additives, construction adhesive, and miscellaneous products; supporting products, such as paint brushes and rollers, sandpaper, insulation, mesh, roof filter, and faucet; and sealant products. In addition, the company sells and distributes architectural solutions materials; and provides adhesive solutions for the construction, automotive, engineering, and household sectors. Further, it engages in trading and services business. PT Avia Avian Tbk was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Sidoarjo, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) currently trades at 344.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 387.65 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 11.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 460.15 IDR per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the 344.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 108.07 IDR, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 262.44 IDR (bear) to 556.52 IDR (bull), the price of 344.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Avia Avian PT Tbk reported revenue of 8.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 6.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7T IDR in FY2025, compounding +5.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 20.7T IDR (≈ $2.1B) · P/E ratio 11.4 · P/S ratio 2.45 · EPS (TTM) 30.23 IDR · Net margin 21.5% · Return on equity 18.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.4% · Operating margin 25.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 13%, AVIA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 262.44 IDRFair Value 387.65 IDRBull 556.52 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (22.11 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 24%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.1% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 706 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+15% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
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Is Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 387.65 IDR versus a price of 344.00 IDR, about +13% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AVIA?
Our model-based fair value for Avia Avian PT Tbk is 387.65 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 344.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of AVIA?
Avia Avian PT Tbk has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 387.65 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 262.44 IDR, optimistic scenario 556.52 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avia Avian PT Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 387.65 IDR, about +13% upside versus a price of 344.00 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 262.44 IDR, optimistic scenario 556.52 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Avia Avian PT Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 8.5T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avia Avian PT Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +1.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVIA use?
Our models discount Avia Avian PT Tbk at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.06, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avia Avian PT Tbk that is +1.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Avia Avian PT Tbk grew +7.2 % a year. The price currently implies +1.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avia Avian PT Tbk (+1.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.10 %: that much free cash flow Avia Avian PT Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avia Avian PT Tbk it is 387.65 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 344.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Avia Avian PT Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AVIA trades below its calculated fair value: price 344.00 IDR, fair value 387.65 IDR, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (344.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (387.65 IDR). For Avia Avian PT Tbk the two are 43.65 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avia Avian PT Tbk worth?
The market values Avia Avian PT Tbk at about 20.7T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 344.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 387.65 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVIA?
Our models span a range for Avia Avian PT Tbk: cautious scenario 262.44 IDR, base 387.65 IDR, optimistic 556.52 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 344.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVIA?
Avia Avian PT Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 387.65 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 8.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avia Avian PT Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVIA from its 52-week high?
Avia Avian PT Tbk trades at 344.00 IDR, about 32% below its 52-week high of 503.23 IDR and 19% above the low of 288.00 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 387.65 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avia Avian PT Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avia Avian PT Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 344.00 IDR, calculated fair value 387.65 IDR (+13%), Quality Score 77/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVIA calculated?
We run Avia Avian PT Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 387.65 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Avia Avian PT Tbk currently trades 13 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 344.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 387.65 IDR, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avia Avian PT Tbk right now?
A fairly wide model range (262.44 IDR to 556.52 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Avia Avian PT Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The market capitalisation of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 20.7T IDR (≈ $2.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 2.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Earnings per share at Avia Avian PT Tbk are 30.23 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The net margin of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 21.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 18.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 16.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The operating margin of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 25.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Revenue at Avia Avian PT Tbk is growing +16.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Earnings per share at Avia Avian PT Tbk are growing +15.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) hold?
Avia Avian PT Tbk holds more cash than debt, 1.6T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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