Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Avia Avian PT Tbk stock IDR 333, price IDR 304, upside +9.6%, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range 288.00 IDR – 792.06 IDR · fair‑value band 230.92 IDR – 468.16 IDR · the 304.00 IDR price screens below the 333.12 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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PT Avia Avian Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes paints and building materials in Indonesia. It operates in two segments, Architectural Solutions and Trading Goods.
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The company offers wall paint, special effects and texture paint, waterproofing paint, wood and iron paint, wood preservative, primer, putty, and roof and zinc paint products; and instant cement, including skim coat, lightweight brick adhesive, tile adhesive, instant putty, and plaster adhesive.
It also provides glue, natural stone coating, grout filler, duco and spray paint, protective coating, marine coating, floor paint, paint thinner, concrete additives, construction adhesive, and miscellaneous products; supporting products, such as paint brushes and rollers, sandpaper, insulation, mesh, roof filter, and faucet; and sealant products.
In addition, the company sells and distributes architectural solutions materials; and provides adhesive solutions for the construction, automotive, engineering, and household sectors. Further, it engages in trading and services business.
PT Avia Avian Tbk was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Sidoarjo, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) currently trades at 304.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 333.12 IDR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.7%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 460.15 IDR per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the 304.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 106.12 IDR, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 230.92 IDR (bear) to 468.16 IDR (bull), the price of 304.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Avia Avian PT Tbk reported revenue of 8.1T IDR in FY2025 versus 6.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was 1.7T IDR in FY2025, compounding +5.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 18.0T IDR (≈ $993M) Small · P/E ratio 9.3 · P/S ratio 1.97 · EPS (TTM) 32.68 IDR · Dividend yield 3.9% · Net margin 21.4% · Return on equity 19.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 10%, AVIA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear230.92 IDRFair Value 333.12 IDRBull468.16 IDR
Price 304.00 IDR · Upside +9.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (17.68 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.25% → 24%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.6% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 727 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+9.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)19.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets15.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)21.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.9% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)9.3× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.89× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)1.97× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.3× · Cheaper than median
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Is Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 333.12 IDR versus a price of 304.00 IDR, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AVIA?
Our model-based fair value for Avia Avian PT Tbk is 333.12 IDR (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 304.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of AVIA?
Avia Avian PT Tbk has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 333.12 IDR (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 230.92 IDR, optimistic scenario 468.16 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avia Avian PT Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 333.12 IDR, about +10% upside versus a price of 304.00 IDR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 230.92 IDR, optimistic scenario 468.16 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Avia Avian PT Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 9.1T IDR (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Avia Avian PT Tbk pay a dividend?
Avia Avian PT Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of 3.95% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Avia Avian PT Tbk pays a dividend of 12.00 IDR per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 20, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 36.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.77 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avia Avian PT Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by +3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.2 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVIA use?
Our models discount Avia Avian PT Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avia Avian PT Tbk that is +3.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Avia Avian PT Tbk grew +7.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +3.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avia Avian PT Tbk (+3.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.00 %: that much free cash flow Avia Avian PT Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avia Avian PT Tbk it is 333.12 IDR per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of 304.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Avia Avian PT Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, AVIA trades below its calculated fair value: price 304.00 IDR, fair value 333.12 IDR, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (304.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (333.12 IDR). For Avia Avian PT Tbk the two are 29.12 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avia Avian PT Tbk worth?
The market values Avia Avian PT Tbk at about 18.0T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is 304.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 333.12 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVIA?
Our models span a range for Avia Avian PT Tbk: cautious scenario 230.92 IDR, base 333.12 IDR, optimistic 468.16 IDR per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price 304.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVIA?
Avia Avian PT Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.3 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 333.12 IDR is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 18.9. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 6.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avia Avian PT Tbk (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 19.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVIA from its 52-week high?
Avia Avian PT Tbk trades at 304.00 IDR, about 40% below its 52-week high of 503.23 IDR and 6% above the low of 288.00 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 333.12 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avia Avian PT Tbk?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avia Avian PT Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price 304.00 IDR, calculated fair value 333.12 IDR (+10%), Quality Score 78/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVIA calculated?
We run Avia Avian PT Tbk through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 333.12 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Avia Avian PT Tbk currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 304.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 333.12 IDR, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avia Avian PT Tbk right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (230.92 IDR to 468.16 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Avia Avian PT Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The market capitalisation of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 18.0T IDR (≈ $993M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 1.97 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Earnings per share at Avia Avian PT Tbk are 32.68 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The dividend yield of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 3.9% (payout 36.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The net margin of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 21.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 19.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 16.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
The operating margin of Avia Avian PT Tbk is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Revenue at Avia Avian PT Tbk is growing +13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA)?
Earnings per share at Avia Avian PT Tbk are growing +9.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Avia Avian PT Tbk (AVIA) hold?
Avia Avian PT Tbk holds more cash than debt, 1.6T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 3, 2026