Avio S.p.A (AVIO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Avio S.p.A stock €24.57, price €28.92, that is 15.1% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.88 – €64.28 · fair‑value band €19.72 – €25.77 · the €28.92 price screens above the €24.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Avio S.p.A. designs, develops, produces, and integrates space launchers in Italy and internationally.
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The company involved in the design, development, and production of solid and liquid propulsion systems for launchers; design, development, and production of solid propulsion systems for tactical missiles; development, integration, and supply of complete light space launchers; research and development of new environmentally friendly propulsion systems and attitude control engines for satellites; liquid propulsion systems for satellites; and ground infrastructure for launcher preparation and launch.
Avio S.p.A. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Colleferro, Italy.
Stock analysis
Avio S.p.A (AVIO) currently trades at €28.92, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €24.57, 15% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €39.37 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the €28.92 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.61, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €19.72 (bear) to €25.77 (bull), the price of €28.92 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Avio S.p.A reported revenue of €584M in FY2025 versus €741M in FY2021, a compound −5.8%/yr. Reported net income was €10.5M in FY2025, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.4B Small · P/E ratio 60.3 · P/S ratio 2.34 · EPS (TTM) €0.4800 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −15%, AVIO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€19.72Fair Value €24.57Bull€25.77
Price €28.92 · Downside -15.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.2838 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€38.47€50.97€87.2276
Owner Earnings€6.50€7.00€7.8676
Growth DCF€36.42€54.16€81.8975
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€38.47€50.97€87.2276
Owner Earnings€6.50€7.00€7.8676
5Y Revenue Exit€19.00€22.19€28.3572
5Y EBITDA Exit€21.55€27.33€38.4474
5Y P/E Exit€20.01€27.58€36.2569
10Y Revenue Exit€26.36€36.59€39.0466
10Y EBITDA Exit€27.97€41.16€60.0766
10Y P/E Exit€27.03€38.40€53.6262
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd€1.46€10.15€14.2561
Lynch FV€5.24€7.49€9.7459
PEG = 1.0€5.24€7.49€9.7455
EPV€7.00€7.12€7.2274
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€0.5100€0.8400€1.0866
DDM Multi-Stage€0.5100€0.8100€0.910065
Multiples
P/E Multiple€3.37€4.50€5.6263
P/S Multiple€2.73€3.64€4.5558
P/B Multiple€11.60€15.46€19.3355
EV/EBIT€14.40€15.18€15.9566
EV/EBITDA€17.90€19.84€21.7867
EV/Revenue€13.74€14.45€15.1654
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€2.38€3.61€4.5154
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€36.42€54.16€81.8975
Rev-Margin DCF€19.96€24.58€34.7071
Economic Profit
Residual Income€7.37€7.84€8.7374
ROIC Compounder€7.00€7.12€7.2270
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E€6.86€9.80€12.7465
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+21.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.7% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
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’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.6% vs 27.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.5% a year for the price and +5.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (29 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−15.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.1% · Below median
Return on assets0.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−0.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Avio S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVIO
Frequently asked questions
Is Avio S.p.A (AVIO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €24.57 versus a price of €28.92, about 15% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AVIO?
Our model-based fair value for Avio S.p.A is €24.57 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €28.92.
What is the quality score of AVIO?
Avio S.p.A has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €24.57 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €19.72, optimistic scenario €25.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Avio S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €24.57, about 15% lower versus a price of €28.92 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €19.72, optimistic scenario €25.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
Avio S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €601M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Avio S.p.A pay a dividend?
Avio S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of 0.51% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Avio S.p.A (AVIO) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Avio S.p.A pays a dividend of €0.148 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.5%. The last ex-dividend date was May 18, 2026. The payout ratio is 30.8% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 19.38 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Avio S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by -2.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +23.2 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AVIO use?
Our models discount Avio S.p.A at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.88, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Avio S.p.A that is -2.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Avio S.p.A (AVIO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Avio S.p.A grew +23.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -2.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Avio S.p.A (AVIO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Avio S.p.A (-2.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.59 %: that much free cash flow Avio S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Avio S.p.A it is €24.57 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of €28.92. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Avio S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, AVIO trades above its calculated fair value: price €28.92, fair value €24.57, a gap of about −15% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVIO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€28.92); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€24.57). For Avio S.p.A the two are €4.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Avio S.p.A worth?
The market values Avio S.p.A at about €1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is €28.92; our models calculate a fair value of €24.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVIO?
Our models span a range for Avio S.p.A: cautious scenario €19.72, base €24.57, optimistic €25.77 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price €28.92). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AVIO?
Avio S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 60.3 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €24.57 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 34.5. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 47.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Avio S.p.A (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 4.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVIO from its 52-week high?
Avio S.p.A trades at €28.92, about 34% below its 52-week high of €43.86 and 22% above the low of €23.78 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €24.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Avio S.p.A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Airbus SE, Safran SA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Avio S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price €28.92, calculated fair value €24.57 (−15%), Quality Score 43/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVIO calculated?
We run Avio S.p.A through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €24.57 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Avio S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €28.92. Our model-based fair value is €24.57, about 15% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Avio S.p.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€25.77). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Avio S.p.A (AVIO) come from?
Earnings per share at Avio S.p.A grew +32.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +34.6 %, EBIT margin −14.2 %, tax rate −0.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +15.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Avio S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
The market capitalisation of Avio S.p.A is €1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Avio S.p.A is 2.34 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
Earnings per share at Avio S.p.A are €0.4800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 60.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
The dividend yield of Avio S.p.A is 0.5% (payout 30.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
The net margin of Avio S.p.A is 3.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Avio S.p.A is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Avio S.p.A is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
The operating margin of Avio S.p.A is −0.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
Revenue at Avio S.p.A is growing +6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +99.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Avio S.p.A (AVIO)?
Earnings per share at Avio S.p.A are growing −18.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Avio S.p.A (AVIO) hold?
Avio S.p.A holds more cash than debt, €592M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026