AAR Corp (AIR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.3B
AAR Corp
AIR · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +7.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 95% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.95 to $9.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.64 – $149.43 · fair‑value band $4.95 – $9.44 · the $146.40 price screens above the $7.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
AAR Corp (AIR) currently trades at $146.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.06, implying the stock looks roughly 95.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, AAR Corp generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 24.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.1%. Net debt stands at $951M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.95 (bear case) to $9.44 (bull case); at $146.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 120% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -55% fair-value upside, at -95%, AIR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($69.93) versus Earnings-Based ($2.27). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services.
Full company description
AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services. The company leases and sells aircraft components and replacement parts; and designs, manufactures, and repairs transportation pallets. The company also provides airframe maintenance services, such as airframe inspection, painting services, line maintenance, airframe modifications, structural repairs, avionics service and installation, exterior, and interior refurbishment services; component repair services, including maintenance, repair, and overhaul services, engine and airframe accessories, and interior refurbishment; and engineering services, such as integration, certification and procurement. In addition, it develops aircraft components and parts; designs proprietary designated engineering representative repairs; and provides integrated software solutions comprising Trax, a cloud-based electronic enterprise resource platform, as well as a suite of paperless mobility apps for automating workflows. Further, the company engages in the fleet management and operation of customer-owned aircraft; provision of supply chain logistics services, such as material planning, sourcing, logistics, information and program management, and parts and component repair and overhaul services, as well as engineering, design, and system integration services for specialized command and control systems; and flight hour component inventory and repair services. Additionally, it offers containers and shelters for military and humanitarian tactical deployment activities; and shelters, such as stationary and vehicle-mounted applications. AAR Corp. was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AAR Corp reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was $12.5M in FY2025, compounding −23.1%/yr from FY2021.
AIR screens 95% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AAR (AIR) Earnings Put Its Valuation Back In Focus
- What AAR (AIR)'s Buyback Completion, Earnings Strength and New Shelf Registration Mean For Shareholders
- Airbus (ENXTPA:AIR) Launches C$13.7 Million Canada SAF Platform With Air Canada
- Boeing beats Airbus with 173 plane orders at Farnborough Airshow
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 227 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $381.22 | $116.71 | -69% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $195.93 | $88.37 | -55% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €206.30 | €92.85 | -55% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $217.11 | $48.20 | -78% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥34.31 | ¥21.90 | -36% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 466,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -41% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 967,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -41% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 337.50 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -61% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 520.40 | kr 212.84 | -59% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 277.50 | kr 106.93 | -61% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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