AAR Corp (AIR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what AAR Corp is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $19.06 · Strongly overvalued (−84%)
!Quality 51/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +6.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers(6/14)
!Narrow moat40/100
!Insider activity46/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.64 – $153.71 · fair‑value band $11.29 – $19.06 · the $116.26 price screens above the $19.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services.
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AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services. The company leases and sells aircraft components and replacement parts; and designs, manufactures, and repairs transportation pallets. The company also provides airframe maintenance services, such as airframe inspection, painting services, line maintenance, airframe modifications, structural repairs, avionics service and installation, exterior, and interior refurbishment services; component repair services, including maintenance, repair, and overhaul services, engine and airframe accessories, and interior refurbishment; and engineering services, such as integration, certification and procurement. In addition, it develops aircraft components and parts; designs proprietary designated engineering representative repairs; and provides integrated software solutions comprising Trax, a cloud-based electronic enterprise resource platform, as well as a suite of paperless mobility apps for automating workflows. Further, the company engages in the fleet management and operation of customer-owned aircraft; provision of supply chain logistics services, such as material planning, sourcing, logistics, information and program management, and parts and component repair and overhaul services, as well as engineering, design, and system integration services for specialized command and control systems; and flight hour component inventory and repair services. Additionally, it offers containers and shelters for military and humanitarian tactical deployment activities; and shelters, such as stationary and vehicle-mounted applications. AAR Corp. was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois.
Stock analysis
AAR Corp (AIR) currently trades at $116.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.06, implying the stock looks roughly 510.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $69.93 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $116.26 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.27, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $11.29 (bear) to $19.06 (bull), the price of $116.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
AAR Corp reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was $12.5M in FY2025, compounding −23.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.3B · P/E ratio 25.6 · P/S ratio 0.11 · EPS (TTM) $4.55 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 0.4% · Return on equity 12.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −84%, AIR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.27 to $83.49). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $11.29Fair Value $19.06Bull $19.06
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.68 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−13.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13% vs −13%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 6%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−94% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth25% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.80× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)25.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B4.41× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.71× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF3,819.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA18.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.40× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 45
PAST (return on equity)48· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)60· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 17
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AAR Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIR
Frequently asked questions
Is AAR Corp (AIR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.06 versus a price of $116.26, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIR?
Our model-based fair value for AAR Corp is $19.06 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $116.26.
What is the quality score of AIR?
AAR Corp has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AAR Corp (AIR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $19.06 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.29, optimistic scenario $19.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AAR Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $19.06, about −84% upside versus a price of $116.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.29, optimistic scenario $19.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AAR Corp (AIR)?
AAR Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does AAR Corp pay a dividend?
AAR Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of AAR Corp (AIR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AAR Corp it is $19.06 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $116.26. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AAR Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, AIR trades above its calculated fair value: price $116.26, fair value $19.06, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($116.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($19.06). For AAR Corp the two are $97.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AAR Corp worth?
The market values AAR Corp at about $5.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $116.26; our models calculate a fair value of $19.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIR?
Our models span a range for AAR Corp: cautious scenario $11.29, base $19.06, optimistic $19.06 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $116.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AIR?
AAR Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $19.06 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 4.4, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 18.2.
What is the PEG ratio of AIR?
The PEG ratio of AAR Corp is 2.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AAR Corp (AIR)?
Balance-sheet figures for AAR Corp (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 12.1%, debt of 0.80 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIR from its 52-week high?
AAR Corp trades at $116.26, about 9% below its 52-week high of $127.21 and 74% above the low of $66.68 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $19.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AAR Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Howmet Aerospace Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AAR Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $116.26, calculated fair value $19.06 (−84%), Quality Score 51/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIR calculated?
We run AAR Corp through 20 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $19.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AAR Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was $116.26. Our model-based fair value is $19.06, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AAR Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of AAR Corp (AIR) come from?
Earnings per share at AAR Corp grew −1.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.2 %, EBIT margin +1.1 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AAR Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The market capitalisation of AAR Corp is $5.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AAR Corp is 0.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AAR Corp (AIR)?
Earnings per share at AAR Corp are $4.55 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The dividend yield of AAR Corp is 4.1% (payout 106%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The net margin of AAR Corp is 0.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AAR Corp is 12.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AAR Corp (AIR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AAR Corp is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The operating margin of AAR Corp is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AAR Corp (AIR)?
Revenue at AAR Corp is growing +24.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AAR Corp (AIR)?
Earnings per share at AAR Corp are growing +92.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does AAR Corp (AIR) generate?
The free cash flow of AAR Corp is $1.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does AAR Corp (AIR) carry?
The net debt of AAR Corp is $951M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 18, 2026