Alphaville S.A (AVLL3) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 15, 2026: fair value of Alphaville S.A BRL 14.10, price BRL 5.51, upside +155.9%, quality 39 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$0.8700 – R$697.97 · fair‑value band R$9.49 – R$18.71 · the R$5.51 price screens below the R$14.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Alphaville S.A. engages in residential subdivision business under the Alphaville brand in Brazil. It also offers real estate purchase and sale of residential and commercial properties and asset management.
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Alphaville S.A. was formerly known as Private Equity AE Investimentos e Participações S.A. The company was founded in 1973 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil.
Stock analysis
Alphaville S.A (AVLL3) currently trades at R$5.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$14.10, implying the stock looks roughly 60.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 5 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: R$9.49 (bear) to R$18.71 (bull), the price of R$5.51 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Alphaville S.A reported revenue of R$585M in FY2025 versus R$228M in FY2021, a compound +26.6%/yr. Reported net income was −R$126M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap R$43.0M (≈ $8.5M) · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) R$−13.70 · Net margin −21.5% · Return on equity −1,333% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.8% · Operating margin 23.0% · Revenue (TTM) R$566M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 87% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 4% fair-value upside, at 156%, AVLL3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR$9.49Fair Value R$14.10BullR$18.71
Price R$5.51 · Upside +155.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.8%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−259.7% (2019) → 21.4% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 572 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside+155.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−9.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−19.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)23.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.02× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA5.6× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100· sector 68
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 57
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alphaville S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AVLL3
Frequently asked questions
Is Alphaville S.A (AVLL3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$14.10 versus a price of R$5.51, about +156% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AVLL3?
Our model-based fair value for Alphaville S.A is R$14.10 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$5.51.
What is the quality score of AVLL3?
Alphaville S.A has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$14.10 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$9.49, optimistic scenario R$18.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Alphaville S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$14.10, about +156% upside versus a price of R$5.51 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$9.49, optimistic scenario R$18.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
Alphaville S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$566M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Alphaville S.A it is R$14.10 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$5.51. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Alphaville S.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, AVLL3 trades below its calculated fair value: price R$5.51, fair value R$14.10, a gap of about +156% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AVLL3?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$5.51); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$14.10). For Alphaville S.A the two are R$8.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Alphaville S.A worth?
The market values Alphaville S.A at about R$43.0M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$5.51; our models calculate a fair value of R$14.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AVLL3?
Our models span a range for Alphaville S.A: cautious scenario R$9.49, base R$14.10, optimistic R$18.71 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$5.51). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
Balance-sheet figures for Alphaville S.A (as of Oct 3, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AVLL3 from its 52-week high?
Alphaville S.A trades at R$5.51, about 87% below its 52-week high of R$41.25 and at the low of R$5.51 (as of Oct 15, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$14.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Alphaville S.A?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Alphaville S.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$5.51, calculated fair value R$14.10 (+156%), Quality Score 39/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AVLL3 calculated?
We run Alphaville S.A through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$14.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Alphaville S.A currently trades 61 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
The closing price on Oct 15, 2026 was R$5.51. Our model-based fair value is R$14.10, about +156% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Alphaville S.A right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (39/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$9.49). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (R$9.49 to R$18.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Alphaville S.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
The market capitalisation of Alphaville S.A is R$43.0M (≈ $8.5M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Alphaville S.A is 0.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
Earnings per share at Alphaville S.A are R$−13.70. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
The net margin of Alphaville S.A is −21.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Alphaville S.A is −1,333% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Alphaville S.A is −3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
The operating margin of Alphaville S.A is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
Revenue at Alphaville S.A is growing −3.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Alphaville S.A (AVLL3)?
Earnings per share at Alphaville S.A are growing −67.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Alphaville S.A (AVLL3) generate?
The free cash flow of Alphaville S.A is −R$43.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Alphaville S.A (AVLL3) carry?
The net debt of Alphaville S.A is R$588M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 3, 2026