Alphaville S.A (AVLL3) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · BR · Market cap R$82.0M (≈ $15.8M)
What is Alphaville S.A really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 47% below our fair value of R$13.10.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 3 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 29, 2026, revised from R$13.37 to R$13.10 (−2.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −34.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (31/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R$8.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (R$8.69 to R$17.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$0.8700 – R$697.97 · fair‑value band R$8.69 – R$17.51 · the R$6.90 price screens below the R$13.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Alphaville S.A (AVLL3) currently trades at R$6.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$13.10, implying the stock looks roughly 47.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 5 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alphaville S.A generated revenue of R$571M at a net margin of −23.6%. Revenue declined 10.9% year over year. Net debt stands at R$588M. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$8.69 (bear case) to R$17.51 (bull case); at R$6.90, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 90%, AVLL3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 3 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 29 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Alphaville S.A. engages in residential subdivision business under the Alphaville brand in Brazil.It also offers real estate purchase and sale of residential and commercial properties and asset management. Alphaville S.A. was formerly known as Private Equity AE Investimentos e Participações S.A.
Full company description
Alphaville S.A. engages in residential subdivision business under the Alphaville brand in Brazil.It also offers real estate purchase and sale of residential and commercial properties and asset management. Alphaville S.A. was formerly known as Private Equity AE Investimentos e Participações S.A. The company was founded in 1973 and is based in São Paulo, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alphaville S.A reported revenue of R$585M in FY2025 versus R$228M in FY2021, a compound +26.6%/yr. Reported net income was −R$126M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 596 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 80016 | HK$109.70 | HK$88.93 | −19% |
| China Resources Land Limited 1109 | HK$35.24 | HK$72.16 | +105% |
| Vinhomes Joint Stock Company VHM | 71,700 VND | 109,431 VND | +53% |
| CK Asset Holdings 1113 | HK$46.12 | HK$68.85 | +49% |
| Hongkong Land Holdings H78 | $8.20 | $1.52 | −81% |
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹667.10 | ₹170.24 | −74% |
| China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 | HK$13.76 | HK$22.92 | +67% |
| Macrotech Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,244 | ₹583.42 | −53% |
| Sino Land Company 0083 | HK$10.33 | HK$6.99 | −32% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 5,925 IDR | 1,325 IDR | −78% |
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