Mission Produce, Inc (AVO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $1.2B
Mission Produce, Inc
AVO · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −2.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($5.42 to $11.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.46 – $22.69 · fair‑value band $5.42 – $11.21 · the $13.20 price screens above the $8.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Mission Produce, Inc (AVO) currently trades at $13.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.96, implying the stock looks roughly 32.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Mission Produce, Inc generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 2.5%. Revenue declined 16.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.7%. Net debt stands at $136M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.42 (bear case) to $11.21 (bull case); at $13.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -32%, AVO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($8.96) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Mission Produce, Inc. engages in the sourcing, farming, packaging, marketing, and distribution of avocados, mangoes, and blueberries to food retailers, wholesalers, and foodservice customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments, Marketing and Distribution; International Farming; and Blueberries.
Full company description
Mission Produce, Inc. engages in the sourcing, farming, packaging, marketing, and distribution of avocados, mangoes, and blueberries to food retailers, wholesalers, and foodservice customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments, Marketing and Distribution; International Farming; and Blueberries. It also provides ripening, bagging, custom packing, logistical management, and quality assurance services. In addition, the company offers merchandising and promotional support, and insights on market trends, and training services. Mission Produce, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Oxnard, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Mission Produce, Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $892M in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was $37.7M in FY2025, compounding −4.3%/yr from FY2021.
AVO screens 32% overvalued. Compare with Sysco Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- How Much Are Pricing Gains Boosting Mission Produce's Results?
- Mission Produce Rises 12.5% YTD: How Should You Play the Stock?
- Is Profitability Improving Across Mission Produce's Segments?
- Yext, Mission Produce, and 3 More Stocks See Action From Activist Investors
Peer Group
Food Distribution · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Food Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sysco Corporation SYY | $81.69 | $60.58 | -26% |
| US Foods Holding USFD | $99.13 | $55.10 | -44% |
| Performance Food Group PFGC | $113.17 | $37.94 | -66% |
| Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A JMT | €17.68 | €21.59 | +22% |
| CP Axtra Public Company CPAXT | 14.90 THB | 17.04 THB | +14% |
| The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc CHEF | $95.79 | $37.27 | -61% |
| Olam Group VC2 | 1.33 SGD | 2.12 SGD | +59% |
| United Natural Foods, Inc UNFI | $50.19 | $6.00 | -88% |
| The Andersons, Inc ANDE | $79.24 | $47.78 | -40% |
| Metcash Limited MTS | A$2.92 | A$5.33 | +83% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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