Armstrong World Industries, Inc (AWI) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $6.6B
Armstrong World Industries, Inc
AWI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $92.68 to $92.79 (+0.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +22.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($149.40). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($61.85 to $149.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $60.53 – $202.52 · fair‑value band $61.85 – $149.40 · the $185.52 price screens above the $92.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Armstrong World Industries, Inc (AWI) currently trades at $185.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $92.79, implying the stock looks roughly 50.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Armstrong World Industries, Inc generated revenue of $1.6B at a net margin of 18.6%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 36.3%. Net debt stands at $419M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $61.85 (bear case) to $149.40 (bull case); at $185.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -50%, AWI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($114.92) versus Dividend Discount ($13.49). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Armstrong World Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of ceiling and wall solutions in the Americas. It operates through Mineral Fiber and Architectural Specialties segments.
Full company description
Armstrong World Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of ceiling and wall solutions in the Americas. It operates through Mineral Fiber and Architectural Specialties segments. The company offers mineral fiber, fiberglass, metal, wood, felt, architectural resin and glass, wood fiber, and glass-reinforced-gypsum; and ceiling component products, such as ceiling perimeters and trims, as well as grid products that support drywall ceiling systems. It also designs, produces, and sources specialty ceilings, walls, and other interior and exterior architectural applications primarily for use in commercial settings; and manufactures ceiling suspension system (grid) products. It serves commercial and residential construction markets, as well as renovation of existing buildings sectors. The company sells its products to resale distributors, ceiling system contractors, wholesalers, and retailers comprising large home centers. Armstrong World Industries, Inc. was founded in 1860 and is headquartered in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Armstrong World Industries, Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was $309M in FY2025, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2021.
AWI screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Armstrong World Industries Appoints Jennifer Kozak to Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer
- Armstrong World Industries (AWI) Upgraded to Buy: Here's What You Should Know
- Why Armstrong World (AWI) Stock Is Up Today
- Why Armstrong World Industries (AWI) Is Up 18.0% After Boosting 2026 Outlook And Capital Returns
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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