Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Armstrong World Industries Inc stock $96.95, price $171, that is 43.4% below the price, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $60.53 – $202.52 · fair‑value band $65.71 – $128.67 · the $171.23 price screens above the $96.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Armstrong World Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of ceiling and wall solutions in the Americas. It operates through Mineral Fiber and Architectural Specialties segments.
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The company offers mineral fiber, fiberglass, metal, wood, felt, architectural resin and glass, wood fiber, and glass-reinforced-gypsum; and ceiling component products, such as ceiling perimeters and trims, as well as grid products that support drywall ceiling systems.
It also designs, produces, and sources specialty ceilings, walls, and other interior and exterior architectural applications primarily for use in commercial settings; and manufactures ceiling suspension system (grid) products.
It serves commercial and residential construction markets, as well as renovation of existing buildings sectors. The company sells its products to resale distributors, ceiling system contractors, wholesalers, and retailers comprising large home centers.
Armstrong World Industries, Inc. was founded in 1860 and is headquartered in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) currently trades at $171.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $96.95, 43% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $117.24 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $171.23 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $13.53, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $65.71 (bear) to $128.67 (bull), the price of $171.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Armstrong World Industries Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.0%/yr. Reported net income was $309M in FY2025, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $7.3B Mid · P/E ratio 22.6 · P/S ratio 4.19 · EPS (TTM) $7.56 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 18.4% · Return on equity 36.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 80 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −43%, AWI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$65.71Fair Value $96.95Bull$128.67
Price $171.23 · Downside -43.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.19 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
BuyRoy W TemplinDirector575 shares at $173.91$99,998Feb 27, 2026
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.8% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+9.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.2% vs 17.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 27%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.0% a year for the price and +4.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business shows average durability backed by strong reported returns from non-residential volumes in ceilings and specialties, yet it is held back by thin qualitative evidence of lasting resilience.
Main risk: Rivals such as Knauf-owned USG and Saint-Gobain's CertainTeed could gain ceiling market share or force price cuts in mineral fiber and architectural products, pressuring margins and volumes.
Bull case: By expanding its data center solutions and digital design tools the company could strengthen specifications with architects and capture more share even as rivals compete on price.
Bear case: If named competitors erode share in core mineral fiber ceilings and the WAVE venture contributes less, the company might face sustained margin pressure and slower growth in non-residential markets.
Armstrong World Industries posted record Q2 sales with volume growth in mineral fiber ceilings and double-digit gains in architectural specialties, prompting raised full-year guidance. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the durability of its non-residential focus and growth initiatives hold up against softer commercial construction demand, or will margins face renewed pressure?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 254 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−43.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)36.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets16.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)18.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)20.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Armstrong World Industries Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AWI
Frequently asked questions
Is Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $96.95 versus a price of $171.23, about 43% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AWI?
Our model-based fair value for Armstrong World Industries Inc is $96.95 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $171.23.
What is the quality score of AWI?
Armstrong World Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $96.95 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $65.71, optimistic scenario $128.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Armstrong World Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $96.95, about 43% lower versus a price of $171.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $65.71, optimistic scenario $128.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
Armstrong World Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Armstrong World Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Armstrong World Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Armstrong World Industries Inc pays a dividend of $0.339 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 5, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2018. The payout ratio is 4.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 17.35 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Armstrong World Industries Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AWI use?
Our models discount Armstrong World Industries Inc at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Armstrong World Industries Inc that is +18.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Armstrong World Industries Inc grew +11.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +18.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Armstrong World Industries Inc (+18.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.37 %: that much free cash flow Armstrong World Industries Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Armstrong World Industries Inc it is $96.95 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $171.23. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Armstrong World Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, AWI trades above its calculated fair value: price $171.23, fair value $96.95, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AWI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($171.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($96.95). For Armstrong World Industries Inc the two are $74.28 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Armstrong World Industries Inc worth?
The market values Armstrong World Industries Inc at about $7.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $171.23; our models calculate a fair value of $96.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AWI?
Our models span a range for Armstrong World Industries Inc: cautious scenario $65.71, base $96.95, optimistic $128.67 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $171.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AWI?
Armstrong World Industries Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $96.95 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 17.0. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 8.1, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 16.6.
What is the PEG ratio of AWI?
The PEG ratio of Armstrong World Industries Inc is 2.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Armstrong World Industries Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 36.0%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AWI from its 52-week high?
Armstrong World Industries Inc trades at $171.23, about 15% below its 52-week high of $202.32 and 13% above the low of $151.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $96.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Armstrong World Industries Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Johnson Controls International plc, Trane Technologies plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Armstrong World Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $171.23, calculated fair value $96.95 (−43%), Quality Score 72/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AWI calculated?
We run Armstrong World Industries Inc through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $96.95 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Armstrong World Industries Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $171.23. Our model-based fair value is $96.95, about 43% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Armstrong World Industries Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($128.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (72/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($65.71 to $128.67) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) come from?
Earnings per share at Armstrong World Industries Inc grew +18.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.1 %, EBIT margin +8.9 %, tax rate +3.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Armstrong World Industries Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
The market capitalisation of Armstrong World Industries Inc is $7.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Armstrong World Industries Inc is 4.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
Earnings per share at Armstrong World Industries Inc are $7.56 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
The dividend yield of Armstrong World Industries Inc is 0.2% (payout 4.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
The net margin of Armstrong World Industries Inc is 18.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Armstrong World Industries Inc is 36.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Armstrong World Industries Inc is 14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
The operating margin of Armstrong World Industries Inc is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
Revenue at Armstrong World Industries Inc is growing +11.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI)?
Earnings per share at Armstrong World Industries Inc are growing +9.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Armstrong World Industries Inc (AWI) carry?
The net debt of Armstrong World Industries Inc is $419M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026