Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $6.9B
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd
AXTA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $16.90 to $16.93 (+0.2%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +17.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($12.34 to $29.83) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.06 – $41.29 · fair‑value band $12.34 – $29.83 · the $38.19 price screens above the $16.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA) currently trades at $38.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.93, implying the stock looks roughly 55.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Axalta Coating Systems Ltd generated revenue of $5.1B at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue declined 0.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.2%. Net debt stands at $2.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.34 (bear case) to $29.83 (bull case); at $38.19, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -58% fair-value upside, at -56%, AXTA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($30.03) versus Asset-Based ($7.34). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes high-performance coatings systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through two segments, Performance Coatings and Mobility Coatings.
Full company description
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes high-performance coatings systems in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company operates through two segments, Performance Coatings and Mobility Coatings. It also offers water and solvent-borne products and systems to repair damaged vehicles for independent body shops, multi-shop operators, and original equipment manufacturers (OEM) dealership body shops. In addition, the company provides functional and decorative liquid, and powder coatings for building materials, cabinet, wood and luxury vinyl flooring, and furniture applications under the Imron Industrial, Tufcote Industrial, Corlar Industrial, Strenex Industrial, PercoTop, Voltatex, AquaEC, Durapon, Hydropon, UNRIVALED, Ceranamel, Alesta, Teodur, Nap-Gard, Abcite, and Plascoat brands. Further, it develops and supplies electrocoat, primer, the basecoat, and clearcoat products for OEMs of light and commercial vehicles; and coatings systems for various commercial applications, including HDT, MDT, bus, rail, motorcycles, marine and aviation, trailers, recreational vehicles, and personal sport vehicles under the Imron, Imron Elite, Centari, Rival, Corlar epoxy undercoats, and AquaEC brands. The company also offers products under the Audurra, Abcite, Alesta, AquaEC, Axalta Irus Mix, Axalta Irus Scan, Axalta NextJet, Axalta Nimbus, Centari, Ceranamel, Challenger, Chemophan, ColorNet, Cromax, Cromax Mosaic, Durapon 70, Duxone, Harmonized Coating Technologies, Hydropon, Imron ExcelPro, Imron Elite, Imron, Lutophen, Nap-Gard, Nason, Spies Hecker, Standox, Stollaquid, Syntopal, Syrox, Raptor, Rival, U-POL, and Vermeera brands. The company was formerly known as Axalta Coating Systems Bermuda Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. in August 2014. Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd reported revenue of $5.1B in FY2025 versus $4.4B in FY2021, a compound +3.8%/yr. Reported net income was $378M in FY2025, compounding +9.4%/yr from FY2021.
AXTA screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Axalta Shareholders Approve Proposed Merger of Equals with AkzoNobel
- Axalta (AXTA) Reports Rising Sales But Softer Earnings: What Does This Say About Its Margin Story?
- Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) Could Be Fully Valued On Q2 Earnings And Guidance
- Is Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA) Stock Outpacing Its Basic Materials Peers This Year?
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 676 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $489.98 | $222.03 | -55% |
| Nan Ya Plastics Corporation 1303 | 181.50 TWD | 255.83 TWD | +41% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥70.04 | ¥68.03 | -3% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 428.20 | kr 179.66 | -58% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,689 | ₹668.81 | -75% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,236 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,560 | ₹351.84 | -77% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 1,805 IDR | 2,888 IDR | +60% |
| Linde India Limited LINDEINDIA | ₹7,115 | ₹757.93 | -89% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹493.70 | ₹164.29 | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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