Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V MXN 0.71, price MXN 3.57, upside -80.1%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.5839 MXN – 6.62 MXN · fair‑value band 0.5300 MXN – 0.8800 MXN · the 3.57 MXN price screens above the 0.7100 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Axtel, S.A.B. de C.V., an information and communications technology (ICT) company, provides ICT solutions for enterprise, government, and mass-markets operators in Mexico.
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Axtel, S.A.B. de C.V., an information and communications technology (ICT) company, provides ICT solutions for enterprise, government, and mass-markets operators in Mexico. It offers connectivity, managed network, collaboration, cloud, systems integration, cybersecurity, digital transformation, and mobility services, as well as fiber to tower, long-haul, internet, spectrum for links, data center connect, metro access, and colocation services. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in San Nicolás de los Garza, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO) currently trades at 3.57 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.7100 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 402.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 1.00 MXN per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the 3.57 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.1000 MXN, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.5300 MXN (bear) to 0.8800 MXN (bull), the price of 3.57 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Axtel S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 12.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 11.4B MXN in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 636M MXN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 69.5B MXN (≈ $4.0B) · P/E ratio 273.0 · P/S ratio 14.0 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 2.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.9% · Operating margin 0.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −80%, AXTELCPO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (0.1000 MXN to 1.85 MXN). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 0.5300 MXNFair Value 0.7100 MXNBull 0.8800 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.0% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 13%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.3%/yr over ~6Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +19.1% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Telecommunications Services” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)Communication Services · 1211 stocks
Beats the sector median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its sector peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−80% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)2% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.01× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Communication Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)273.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.35× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.37× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF1.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.1× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 38
FUTURE (revenue growth)39· sector 8
PAST (return on equity)10· sector 15
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)35· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Axtel S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AXTELCPO
Frequently asked questions
Is Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.7100 MXN versus a price of 3.57 MXN, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AXTELCPO?
Our model-based fair value for Axtel S.A.B. de C.V is 0.7100 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.57 MXN.
What is the quality score of AXTELCPO?
Axtel S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.7100 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.5300 MXN, optimistic scenario 0.8800 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Axtel S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.7100 MXN, about −80% upside versus a price of 3.57 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.5300 MXN, optimistic scenario 0.8800 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
Axtel S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 10.7B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Axtel S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
Axtel S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.74% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Axtel S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by +23.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AXTELCPO use?
Our models discount Axtel S.A.B. de C.V at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Axtel S.A.B. de C.V that is +23.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Axtel S.A.B. de C.V grew +0.0 % a year. The price currently implies +23.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (+23.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.56 %: that much free cash flow Axtel S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Axtel S.A.B. de C.V it is 0.7100 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 3.57 MXN. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Axtel S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AXTELCPO trades above its calculated fair value: price 3.57 MXN, fair value 0.7100 MXN, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AXTELCPO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.57 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.7100 MXN). For Axtel S.A.B. de C.V the two are 2.86 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Axtel S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Axtel S.A.B. de C.V at about 69.5B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 3.57 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 0.7100 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AXTELCPO?
Our models span a range for Axtel S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 0.5300 MXN, base 0.7100 MXN, optimistic 0.8800 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 3.57 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AXTELCPO?
Axtel S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 273.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.7100 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.4, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 4.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.4%, debt of 3.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AXTELCPO from its 52-week high?
Axtel S.A.B. de C.V trades at 3.57 MXN, about 2% below its 52-week high of 3.64 MXN and 53% above the low of 2.33 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.7100 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Axtel S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Technology) we also value MTEL, CNVRG, DITO, NVIDIA Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Axtel S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 3.57 MXN, calculated fair value 0.7100 MXN (−80%), Quality Score 67/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AXTELCPO calculated?
We run Axtel S.A.B. de C.V through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.7100 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Axtel S.A.B. de C.V itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 3.57 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 0.7100 MXN, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Axtel S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.8800 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
The market capitalisation of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V is 69.5B MXN (≈ $4.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V is 14.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
The dividend yield of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V is 1.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
The net margin of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V is 2.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V is 4.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
The operating margin of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V is 0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
Revenue at Axtel S.A.B. de C.V is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO)?
Earnings per share at Axtel S.A.B. de C.V are growing +99.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Axtel S.A.B. de C.V (AXTELCPO) carry?
The net debt of Axtel S.A.B. de C.V is 7.7B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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