Axtel, S.A. (AXTELCPO) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · MX · Market cap 52.2B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Share price −4.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 74% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (0.8800 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.5839 MXN – 6.62 MXN · fair‑value band 0.5300 MXN – 0.8800 MXN · the 2.73 MXN price screens above the 0.7100 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Axtel, S.A. (AXTELCPO) currently trades at 2.73 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.7100 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 74.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Axtel, S.A. generated revenue of 10.7B MXN at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue grew 7.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.4%. Net debt stands at 7.7B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.5300 MXN (bear case) to 0.8800 MXN (bull case); at 2.73 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -74%, AXTELCPO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (0.8800 MXN) versus Asset-Based (0.1000 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Axtel, S.A.B. de C.V., an information and communications technology (ICT) company, provides ICT solutions for enterprise, government, and mass-markets operators in Mexico.
Full company description
Axtel, S.A.B. de C.V., an information and communications technology (ICT) company, provides ICT solutions for enterprise, government, and mass-markets operators in Mexico. It offers connectivity, managed network, collaboration, cloud, systems integration, cybersecurity, digital transformation, and mobility services, as well as fiber to tower, long-haul, internet, spectrum for links, data center connect, metro access, and colocation services. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in San Nicolás de los Garza, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Axtel, S.A. reported revenue of 12.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 11.4B MXN in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was 636M MXN in FY2025.
AXTELCPO screens 74% overvalued. Compare with GLO →
Peer Group
Communication Services · 1202 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Telecommunications Services” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Communication Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Telecommunications Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLO GLO | 1,810 PHP | 1,918 PHP | +6% |
| CNVRG CNVRG | 9.20 PHP | 25.10 PHP | +173% |
| DITO DITO | 0.7100 PHP | 1.79 PHP | +152% |
| ECP ECP | 2.28 PHP | 0.8300 PHP | -64% |
| NVIDIA Corporation NVDA | $211.80 | $96.91 | -54% |
| Apple Inc AAPL | $313.33 | $122.91 | -61% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company 2330 | 2,290 TWD | 1,325 TWD | -42% |
| Samsung Electronics Co 005930 | 255,000 KRW | 138,019 KRW | -46% |
| SK hynix Inc 000660 | 2,082,000 KRW | 1,109,311 KRW | -47% |
| MediaTek Inc 2454 | 3,740 TWD | 1,163 TWD | -69% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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