Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$7.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price +0.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (A$2.02 to A$4.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.65 – A$4.38 · fair‑value band A$2.02 – A$4.19 · the A$4.19 price screens above the A$2.69 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Aurizon Holdings (AZJ) currently trades at A$4.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.69, implying the stock looks roughly 35.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aurizon Holdings generated revenue of A$4.0B at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue grew 2.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.2%. Net debt stands at A$5.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$2.02 (bear case) to A$4.19 (bull case); at A$4.19, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -36%, AZJ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$3.06) versus Earnings-Based (A$1.26). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aurizon Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the freight business in Australia. It operates through Network, Coal, Bulk, and Other segments.
Full company description
Aurizon Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the freight business in Australia. It operates through Network, Coal, Bulk, and Other segments. The company operates and manages the Central Queensland Coal Network that consists of 2,670 kilometers of track network; and the South Australia and Northern Territory Network that consists of 2,100 kilometers of track network. It also transports metallurgical and thermal coal; retail and supermarket essentials, refrigerated goods, vehicles, and machinery and equipment; and other commodities, such as iron ore, cement, bauxite, alumina, base metals, grain, fertiliser, and dangerous goods. In addition, the company provides network maintenance; supply chain services, including rail and road transportation, port services, and material handling; and landbridging and containerised freight solutions. It serves mining, metal, industrial, and agricultural customers. The company was formerly known as QR National Limited and changed its name to Aurizon Holdings Limited in December 2012. Aurizon Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Fortitude Valley, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aurizon Holdings reported revenue of A$3.9B in FY2025 versus A$3.0B in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$303M in FY2025, compounding −19.7%/yr from FY2021.
AZJ screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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