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British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of British American Tobacco p.l.c. BRL 47.32, price BRL 55.08, upside -14.1%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
British American Tobacco p.l.c.
B1TI34 · SAGreat Company, Expensive PriceHigh Quality, but the stock trades above estimated Fair Value.
!Fair value R$47.32 · Overvalued (−14.1%)
✓Quality 76/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −0.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 30.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.4% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 81/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$23.30 – R$65.65 · fair‑value band R$29.40 – R$64.46 · the R$55.08 price screens above the R$47.32 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
British American Tobacco p.l.c. provides tobacco and nicotine products to consumers in the United States, Europe, Latin America, Canada, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Africa.
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British American Tobacco p.l.c. provides tobacco and nicotine products to consumers in the United States, Europe, Latin America, Canada, the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, Caucasus, and Africa. The company offers vapour products; heated products, which consists of a battery-powered device and a plant-based substance consumable that is heated; modern oral products, such as nicotine pouches; combustibles, including cigarette sticks and other tobacco stick products; traditional oral products, such as snus and moist snuff; and fine cut/roll-your-own tobacco products. It sells its products under the Vuse, glo, Velo, Grizzly, Kodiak, Dunhill, Kent, Lucky Strike, Pall Mall, Rothmans, Newport, Natural American Spirit, and Camel Snus brands, as well as Vogue, Viceroy, Kool, Peter Stuyvesant, Craven A, and State Express 555 brands. The company distributes its products to retail outlets. British American Tobacco p.l.c. was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34) currently trades at R$55.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$47.32, 14.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$84.47 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$55.08 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R$18.52, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$29.40 (bear) to R$64.46 (bull), the price of R$55.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
British American Tobacco p.l.c. reported revenue of £25.6B in FY2025 versus £25.7B in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was £7.8B in FY2025, compounding +3.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$660B (≈ $126B) · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 3.49 · EPS (TTM) R$4.78 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 30.3% · Return on equity 15.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 22% fair-value upside, at −14%, B1TI34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$29.40
Fair Value R$47.32
Bull R$64.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$1.76 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R$26.82
R$44.26
R$76.57
78
Growth DCF
R$28.89
R$45.82
R$74.78
77
Residual Income
R$32.27
R$38.61
R$50.23
76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$26.82
R$44.26
R$76.57
78
Owner Earnings
R$51.50
R$78.64
R$128.89
75
5Y Revenue Exit
R$9.21
R$17.48
R$29.42
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$40.68
R$71.97
R$113.43
73
5Y P/E Exit
R$40.68
R$71.96
R$109.29
69
10Y Revenue Exit
R$15.33
R$22.12
R$29.01
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$34.89
R$55.82
R$78.33
68
10Y P/E Exit
R$34.88
R$55.81
R$75.90
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$33.79
R$41.30
R$46.46
67
EPV
R$29.99
R$37.92
R$44.86
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$30.78
R$33.69
R$38.12
69
DDM Multi-Stage
R$30.78
R$38.62
R$49.60
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$78.26
R$104.34
R$130.43
63
P/S Multiple
R$19.67
R$26.22
R$32.78
58
P/B Multiple
R$63.35
R$84.47
R$105.58
55
EV/EBIT
R$63.97
R$91.16
R$118.35
65
EV/EBITDA
R$60.67
R$86.76
R$112.85
67
EV/Revenue
n/a
R$6.98
R$14.36
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$15.34
R$20.55
R$30.67
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$28.89
R$45.82
R$74.78
77
Rev-Margin DCF
R$9.21
R$18.52
R$30.37
70
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$32.27
R$38.61
R$50.23
76
ROIC Compounder
R$29.99
R$38.89
R$48.85
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$55.26
R$78.94
R$102.63
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
76/100
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Profitability
51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
30
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
94
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.6%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.40% → 39%
2025 sits 63% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.0% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+2.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.9%
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
- British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS) Following Cash Flow And Buyback Hopes While Fair Value Stays Higher
- British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS) Adds Dragos Ionut Constantinescu To Its Board
- British American Tobacco (LSE:BATS) Stock May Offer An Earnings Backed Discount
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Values & ESG
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Tobacco
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10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Morris International Inc PM | $190.82 | $112.99 | −41% |
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| ITC Limited ITC | ₹269.00 | ₹295.90 | +10% |
| KT&G Corporation 033780 | 174,300 KRW | 99,137 KRW | −43% |
| PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP | 635.00 IDR | 994.45 IDR | +57% |
| Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP | ₹1,892 | ₹1,050 | −44% |
| TABAK TABAK | 17,940 CZK | 23,215 CZK | +29% |
| RLX Technology Inc RLX | $1.69 | $2.35 | +39% |
| China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 | HK$23.46 | HK$29.35 | +25% |
| PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM | 16,575 IDR | 16,988 IDR | +2% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$47.32 versus a price of R$55.08, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of B1TI34?
Our model-based fair value for British American Tobacco p.l.c. is R$47.32 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$55.08.
What is the quality score of B1TI34?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$47.32 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$29.40, optimistic scenario R$64.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the British American Tobacco p.l.c. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$47.32, about −14% upside versus a price of R$55.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$29.40, optimistic scenario R$64.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £25.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does British American Tobacco p.l.c. pay a dividend?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, British American Tobacco p.l.c. would have to grow free cash flow by -3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.1 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of B1TI34 use?
Our models discount British American Tobacco p.l.c. at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For British American Tobacco p.l.c. that is -3.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at British American Tobacco p.l.c. grew -0.1 % a year. The price currently implies -3.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into British American Tobacco p.l.c. (-3.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 32.62 %: that much free cash flow British American Tobacco p.l.c. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For British American Tobacco p.l.c. it is R$47.32 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$55.08. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, B1TI34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$55.08, fair value R$47.32, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of B1TI34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$55.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$47.32). For British American Tobacco p.l.c. the two are R$7.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is British American Tobacco p.l.c. worth?
The market values British American Tobacco p.l.c. at about R$660B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$55.08; our models calculate a fair value of R$47.32 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about B1TI34?
Our models span a range for British American Tobacco p.l.c.: cautious scenario R$29.40, base R$47.32, optimistic R$64.46 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$55.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is B1TI34 from its 52-week high?
British American Tobacco p.l.c. trades at R$55.08, about 16% below its 52-week high of R$65.65 and 6% above the low of R$51.98 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$47.32 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to British American Tobacco p.l.c.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, Altria Group, ITC Limited, KT&G Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is British American Tobacco p.l.c. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$55.08, calculated fair value R$47.32 (−14%), Quality Score 76/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of B1TI34 calculated?
We run British American Tobacco p.l.c. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$47.32, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. British American Tobacco p.l.c. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$55.08. Our model-based fair value is R$47.32, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with British American Tobacco p.l.c. right now?
A fairly wide model range (R$29.40 to R$64.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of British American Tobacco p.l.c.
How large is the market capitalisation of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
The market capitalisation of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is R$660B (≈ $126B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 11.5. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 3.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
Earnings per share at British American Tobacco p.l.c. are R$4.78 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
The dividend yield of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 4.4% (payout 51.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
The net margin of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 30.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
The operating margin of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is 34.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
Revenue at British American Tobacco p.l.c. is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34)?
Earnings per share at British American Tobacco p.l.c. are growing +1.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does British American Tobacco p.l.c. (B1TI34) carry?
The net debt of British American Tobacco p.l.c. is £31.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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