ITC Limited (ITC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of ITC Limited ₹292, price ₹270, upside +8.2%, quality 81 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹158.34 – ₹463.95 · fair‑value band ₹177.56 – ₹420.89 · the ₹270.15 price screens below the ₹292.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ITC Limited engages in the fast-moving consumer goods, paperboards, paper and packaging, and agri businesses in India and internationally.
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ITC Limited engages in the fast-moving consumer goods, paperboards, paper and packaging, and agri businesses in India and internationally. The company offers cigarettes and cigars; foods, including staples, spices, biscuits, confectionery and gums, snacks, noodles and pasta, beverages, dairy products, ready-to-eat meals, chocolates, coffee, and frozen foods; personal care products; education and stationery, such as balls, gels and roller pens, mechanical pencils, geometry boxes, erasers, sharpeners and rulers, wax crayons, plastic crayons, and sketch pens and oil pastels; safety matches; and agarbattis and dhoops under various brands, as well as operates a hotel under the ITC Grand Central name in Mumbai. It also provides virgin, recycled, coated barrier, cupstock base, liner, liquid packaging, antifungal, solid, and graphic boards, as well as specialty papers; surfacing, print base, barrier, overlay, and liner papers; plastic substitution products; and packaging products, including cartons, flexible, tobacco, and green packaging products. In addition, the company exports feed ingredients, food grains, marine products, processed fruits, coffee products, leaf tobacco products, and spices; and offers information technology services for the banking and financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, consumer goods, travel, and hospitality industries, as well as produces and commercializes seed potato technology products. Further, it provides property infrastructure maintenance; engineering, procurement and construction management and project management consultancy services; business consulting; and agro-forestry and other related services, as well as engages in the fabrication and assembly of machinery for tube filling, cartoning, wrapping, and conveyor solutions and engineering activities. ITC Limited was incorporated in 1910 and is headquartered in Kolkata, India.
Stock analysis
ITC Limited (ITC) currently trades at ₹270.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹292.38, implying the stock looks roughly 7.6% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹302.58 per share, and 14 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹270.15 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹38.77, and 12 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹177.56 (bear) to ₹420.89 (bull), the price of ₹270.15 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 81/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
ITC Limited reported revenue of ₹782B in FY2026 versus ₹607B in FY2022, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was ₹207B in FY2026, compounding +7.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹3.4T (≈ $35.2B) · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 4.33 · EPS (TTM) ₹16.51 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 26.5% · Return on equity 29.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 35.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 24% fair-value upside, at 8%, ITC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹177.56Fair Value ₹292.38Bull ₹420.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹1.05 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6% vs 8%, steady
Profit margin 2002 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 33%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.5% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tobacco · 38 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score81 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)29% · Top 25%
Return on assets18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)36% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ITC Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ITC
Frequently asked questions
Is ITC Limited (ITC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹292.38 versus a price of ₹270.15, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ITC?
Our model-based fair value for ITC Limited is ₹292.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹270.15.
What is the quality score of ITC?
ITC Limited has a Quality Score of 81/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ITC Limited (ITC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹292.38 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹177.56, optimistic scenario ₹420.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ITC Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹292.38, about +8% upside versus a price of ₹270.15 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ₹177.56, optimistic scenario ₹420.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ITC Limited (ITC)?
ITC Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹789B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does ITC Limited pay a dividend?
ITC Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ITC Limited (ITC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ITC Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +13.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ITC use?
Our models discount ITC Limited at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ITC Limited that is +13.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ITC Limited (ITC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ITC Limited grew +9.7 % a year. The price currently implies +13.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ITC Limited (ITC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ITC Limited (+13.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ITC Limited (ITC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.81 %: that much free cash flow ITC Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ITC Limited (ITC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ITC Limited it is ₹292.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of ₹270.15. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ITC Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ITC trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹270.15, fair value ₹292.38, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ITC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹270.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹292.38). For ITC Limited the two are ₹22.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ITC Limited worth?
The market values ITC Limited at about ₹3.4T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is ₹270.15; our models calculate a fair value of ₹292.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ITC?
Our models span a range for ITC Limited: cautious scenario ₹177.56, base ₹292.38, optimistic ₹420.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price ₹270.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ITC?
ITC Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹292.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 4.6, P/S 4.2, EV/EBITDA 12.2.
What is the PEG ratio of ITC?
The PEG ratio of ITC Limited is 1.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of ITC Limited (ITC)?
Balance-sheet figures for ITC Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 29.3%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 81/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ITC from its 52-week high?
ITC Limited trades at ₹270.15, about 33% below its 52-week high of ₹401.99 and 6% above the low of ₹255.50 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹292.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ITC Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Philip Morris International Inc, British American Tobacco p.l.c., Altria Group, KT&G Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ITC Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price ₹270.15, calculated fair value ₹292.38 (+8%), Quality Score 81/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ITC calculated?
We run ITC Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹292.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ITC Limited currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ITC Limited (ITC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ₹270.15. Our model-based fair value is ₹292.38, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ITC Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (₹177.56 to ₹420.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of ITC Limited (ITC) come from?
Earnings per share at ITC Limited grew +10.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.6 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of ITC Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of ITC Limited (ITC)?
The market capitalisation of ITC Limited is ₹3.4T (≈ $35.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ITC Limited (ITC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ITC Limited is 4.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ITC Limited (ITC)?
Earnings per share at ITC Limited are ₹16.51 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ITC Limited (ITC)?
The dividend yield of ITC Limited is 5.3% (payout 86.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ITC Limited (ITC)?
The net margin of ITC Limited is 26.5% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ITC Limited (ITC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ITC Limited is 29.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ITC Limited (ITC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ITC Limited is 35.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ITC Limited (ITC)?
The operating margin of ITC Limited is 36.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ITC Limited (ITC)?
Revenue at ITC Limited is growing −5.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ITC Limited (ITC)?
Earnings per share at ITC Limited are growing −72.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ITC Limited (ITC) carry?
The net debt of ITC Limited is ₹17.6B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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