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A.G. BARR p.l.c., (BAG) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · GB · Market cap 727M GBX

AG A.G. BARR p.l.c., BAG · LSE
Price£6.04
Fair Value£5.97
Upside-1.2%
Quality61/100
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Mixed Growth
Solidly profitable · 10.8% net margin
generates free cash flow
2.86% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Moderate moat 57/100
Evidence: High Range £3.81 – £8.79 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from £6.27 to £5.97 (−4.8%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price −5.5% over the past month.

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (£3.81 to £8.79) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£6.91 £3.90 Fair Value £5.97 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £3.90 – £6.91 · fair‑value band £3.81 – £8.79 · the £6.04 price screens above the £5.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

A.G. BARR p.l.c., (BAG) currently trades at £6.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £5.97, implying the stock looks roughly 1.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, A.G. BARR p.l.c., generated revenue of £437M at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 5.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £13.4M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £3.81 (bear case) to £8.79 (bull case); at £6.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -1%, BAG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income £2.79 £3.29 £5.91 76
Growth DCF £2.39 £3.03 £3.80 72
Gordon GGM £1.34 £2.42 £3.33 70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £2.37 £3.09 £4.01 38
Owner Earnings £2.85 £3.76 £4.93 31
5Y Revenue Exit £3.60 £5.57 £8.06 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £4.62 £7.44 £10.67 41
5Y P/E Exit £4.77 £7.70 £10.71 38
10Y Revenue Exit £2.96 £4.52 £6.56 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £3.65 £5.69 £8.33 37
10Y P/E Exit £3.73 £5.85 £8.36 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £2.89 £7.88 £10.33 54
Lynch FV £1.56 £2.22 £2.89 50
PEG = 1.0 £1.56 £2.22 £2.89 46
EPV £3.85 £4.30 £4.67 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £1.34 £2.42 £3.33 70
DDM Multi-Stage £1.34 £1.98 £2.57 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £6.68 £8.91 £11.14 63
P/S Multiple £4.73 £6.30 £7.88 58
P/B Multiple £5.41 £7.22 £9.02 55
EV/EBIT £7.63 £9.99 £12.35 53
EV/EBITDA £6.96 £9.09 £11.23 54
EV/Revenue £4.69 £6.46 £8.24 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £1.52 £2.04 £3.05 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £2.39 £3.03 £3.80 72
Rev-Margin DCF £3.60 £5.56 £7.71 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income £2.79 £3.29 £5.91 76
ROIC Compounder £3.96 £4.63 £5.36 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £5.29 £7.56 £9.83 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£7.56) versus Dividend Discount (£1.98). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 437M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.1%
Net margin 10.8%
Return on equity 14.1%
Free cash flow 22.1M GBX FY2026
P/E ratio 14.4
More key figures
Operating margin 14.3%
EPS (TTM) £0.4200
Dividend yield 2.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -8.1%
Net cash 13.4M GBX FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 34
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 94
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

A.G. BARR p.l.c., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells soft drinks and cocktail solutions in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates in three segments: Soft Drinks, Cocktail Solutions, and Other.

Full company description

A.G. BARR p.l.c., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, distributes, and sells soft drinks and cocktail solutions in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates in three segments: Soft Drinks, Cocktail Solutions, and Other. The company provides mixers, various fruit purees, boost drinks, energy stimulation drinks, sport drinks, iced coffee, oat drinks, spring and sparkling water, fruit juices, and other non-alcoholic beverages. It also engages in the distribution of fruit based soft-drinks, as well as distribution and sale of oat drinks and cereals. The company sells its products under the IRN-BRU, Bundaberg, Barr Flavours, KA, D'N'B, OMJ!, Rubicon, Simply Fruity, Snapple, Sun Exotic, Tizer, and MOMA brands. A.G. BARR p.l.c. was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Cumbernauld, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

A.G. BARR p.l.c., reported revenue of £437M in FY2026 versus £269M in FY2022, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was £47.1M in FY2026, compounding +14.1%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
£437M
Latest YoY
+4.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.0%
Avg. growth/yr (41Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.3%
Revenue +13.0%/yr
FY22 £269M
FY23 £318M
FY24 £400M
FY25 £420M
FY26 £437M
Net income +14.1%/yr
FY22 £27.8M
FY23 £33.9M
FY24 £38.5M
FY25 £39.7M
FY26 £47.1M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +3.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.9 pp

of which total revenue +5.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.4 pp

EBIT margin −2.3 pp
Tax rate −0.9 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "A.G. BARR p.l.c., Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BAG

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 90 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside −1% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Above median
Return on assets 9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Above median
Revenue growth 5% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.9% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.4× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.91× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.25× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 44.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.55× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 32 · sector 21
FUTURE 26 · sector 46
PAST 56 · sector 53
HEALTH 0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 57 · sector 48

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Coca-Cola Company KO $86.71 $36.57 -58%
PepsiCo, Inc PEP $138.70 $106.91 -23%
Monster Beverage Corporation MNST $45.98 $35.82 -22%
Nongfu Spring Co 9633 HK$42.54 HK$30.90 -27%
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP €92.10 €70.86 -23%
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP $29.56 $30.99 +5%
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOFUBL 180.76 MXN 159.53 MXN -12%
Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE €54.20 €46.77 -14%
Arca Continental, S.A. AC 198.23 MXN 242.13 MXN +22%
Varun Beverages Limited VBL ₹438.45 ₹187.49 -57%

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Frequently asked questions

Is A.G. BARR p.l.c., (BAG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £5.97 versus a price of £6.04, about −1% (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of BAG?
Our model-based fair value for A.G. BARR p.l.c., is £5.97 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £6.04.
What is the quality score of BAG?
A.G. BARR p.l.c., has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of A.G. BARR p.l.c., (BAG)?
A.G. BARR p.l.c., reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £437M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BAG?
The net profit margin of A.G. BARR p.l.c., is about 10.8%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.8% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does A.G. BARR p.l.c., pay a dividend?
A.G. BARR p.l.c., currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.07% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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