Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $42.5B
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc
KDP · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 14, 2026, revised from $32.09 to $30.99 (−3.4%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −3.6% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($16.33 to $40.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.70 – $35.90 · fair‑value band $16.33 – $40.11 · the $30.37 price screens below the $30.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (KDP) currently trades at $30.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $30.99, implying the stock looks roughly 2.0% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc generated revenue of $16.9B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 9.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. Net debt stands at $15.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.33 (bear case) to $40.11 (bull case); at $30.37, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -14% fair-value upside, at 2%, KDP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($39.50) versus Asset-Based ($12.57). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. owns, manufactures, and distributors beverages and single serve brewing systems in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International.
Full company description
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. owns, manufactures, and distributors beverages and single serve brewing systems in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International. It manufactures and distributes branded concentrates, syrup, and finished beverages, as well as sales of owned brands and third-party brands; tea, cocoa, and other products; and offers finished goods relating to K-Cup pods, single serve brewers, specialty coffee, and ready to drink coffee products. The company offers its products under the Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, Mott's, A&W, Peñafiel, GHOST, Snapple, 7UP, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, Clamato, Core Hydration, The Original Donut Shop, Sunkist soda, Squirt, C4 Energy, Hawaiian Punch, Electrolit, Bloom, Bai, Evian, Yoo-Hoo, Vita Coco, Big Red, RC Cola, Crush, McCafé, Tim Hortons, Van Houtte, Celestial Seasonings, Bigelow, Starbucks, Dunkin', Folgers, Peet's, 7up Energy, and Swiss Miss brands, as well as other partner and private label brands. It markets and sells its products to supermarkets, mass merchandisers, club stores, e-commerce retailers, office superstores, vending machines, fountains, grocery and drug stores, convenience stores, and other small outlets; and directly to consumers through Keurig.com website. Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Frisco, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc reported revenue of $16.6B in FY2025 versus $12.7B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding −0.8%/yr from FY2021.
Watch KDP: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Keurig Q2 Earnings & Sales Beat Estimates on JDE Peet's Strength
- Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Q2 Earnings
- Keurig Dr Pepper, Inc (KDP) Surpasses Q2 Earnings and Revenue Estimates
- Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ:KDP) Beats Q2 CY2026 Sales Expectations
Peer Group
Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Coca-Cola Company KO | $86.83 | $36.57 | -58% |
| PepsiCo, Inc PEP | $137.38 | $106.91 | -22% |
| Monster Beverage Corporation MNST | $97.50 | $35.82 | -63% |
| Nongfu Spring Co 9633 | HK$41.44 | HK$30.72 | -26% |
| Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP | €92.10 | €85.41 | -7% |
| Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF | $102.04 | $106.45 | +4% |
| Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE | €57.90 | €52.82 | -9% |
| Varun Beverages Limited VBL | ₹495.70 | ₹187.49 | -62% |
| Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 | ¥124.43 | ¥107.57 | -14% |
| MIXUE Group 2097 | HK$229.20 | HK$339.26 | +48% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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