Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$23.21 – HK$54.64 · fair‑value band HK$25.95 – HK$85.52 · the HK$38.60 price screens below the HK$42.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. produces and sells packaged drinking water and beverage products primarily in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Water Products, Ready-To-Drink Tea Products, Functional Drinks Products, Juice Beverage Products, and Other Products.
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Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. produces and sells packaged drinking water and beverage products primarily in Mainland China. It operates through five segments: Water Products, Ready-To-Drink Tea Products, Functional Drinks Products, Juice Beverage Products, and Other Products. The company offers edible ice; ready-to-drink tea beverages; functional drink products; fruit juice products; and other products, including beverage products, such as soda water beverage, coffee beverage, and plant-based beverages, as well as agricultural products comprising fresh fruits. It also provides supply chain management services, as well as engages in the beverage and IT research and development; and refined tea processing activities. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China. Nongfu Spring Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Yangshengtang Co., Ltd.
Stock analysis
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633) currently trades at HK$38.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$42.86, implying the stock looks roughly 9.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$36.69 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$38.60 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$12.73, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$25.95 (bear) to HK$85.52 (bull), the price of HK$38.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd reported revenue of 52.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 29.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +15.3%/yr. Reported net income was 15.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding +22.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$434B (≈ $55.4B) · P/E ratio 25.9 · P/S ratio 7.81 · EPS (TTM) HK$0.6800 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 30.2% · Return on equity 44.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 27.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 11%, 9633 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear HK$25.95Fair Value HK$42.86Bull HK$85.52
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.1%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+26.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+23.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.29% → 37%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 89 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−27% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)44% · Top 25%
Return on assets21% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)30% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth30% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nongfu Spring Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9633
Frequently asked questions
Is Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$42.86 versus a price of HK$38.60, about +11% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9633?
Our model-based fair value for Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is HK$42.86 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$38.60.
What is the quality score of 9633?
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$42.86 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$25.95, optimistic scenario HK$85.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nongfu Spring Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$42.86, about +11% upside versus a price of HK$38.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$25.95, optimistic scenario HK$85.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$52.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Nongfu Spring Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nongfu Spring Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +13.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.1 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9633 use?
Our models discount Nongfu Spring Co Ltd at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nongfu Spring Co Ltd that is +13.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nongfu Spring Co Ltd grew +18.1 % a year. The price currently implies +13.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (+13.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.24 %: that much free cash flow Nongfu Spring Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nongfu Spring Co Ltd it is HK$42.86 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of HK$38.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nongfu Spring Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, 9633 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$38.60, fair value HK$42.86, a gap of about +11% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9633?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$38.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$42.86). For Nongfu Spring Co Ltd the two are HK$4.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nongfu Spring Co Ltd worth?
The market values Nongfu Spring Co Ltd at about HK$434B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is HK$38.60; our models calculate a fair value of HK$42.86 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9633?
Our models span a range for Nongfu Spring Co Ltd: cautious scenario HK$25.95, base HK$42.86, optimistic HK$85.52 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price HK$38.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9633?
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.9 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$42.86 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 11.7, P/S 8.8, EV/EBITDA 19.8.
What is the PEG ratio of 9633?
The PEG ratio of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is 2.27 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 44.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9633 from its 52-week high?
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd trades at HK$38.60, about 30% below its 52-week high of HK$54.78 and 6% above the low of HK$36.38 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$42.86 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nongfu Spring Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nongfu Spring Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price HK$38.60, calculated fair value HK$42.86 (+11%), Quality Score 77/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9633 calculated?
We run Nongfu Spring Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of HK$42.86, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nongfu Spring Co Ltd currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was HK$38.60. Our model-based fair value is HK$42.86, about +11% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nongfu Spring Co Ltd right now?
The model range is unusually wide (HK$25.95 to HK$85.52). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
The market capitalisation of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is HK$434B (≈ $55.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is 7.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
Earnings per share at Nongfu Spring Co Ltd are HK$0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
The dividend yield of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is 2.6% (payout 146%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
The net margin of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is 30.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is 44.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is 27.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
The operating margin of Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is 37.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
Revenue at Nongfu Spring Co Ltd is growing +30.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633)?
Earnings per share at Nongfu Spring Co Ltd are growing +40.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Nongfu Spring Co Ltd (9633) hold?
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$6.7B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 18, 2026