Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Varun Beverages Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹77.14 – ₹669.56 · fair‑value band ₹88.00 – ₹234.54 · the ₹421.80 price screens above the ₹187.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.
Varun Beverages Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as the franchisee of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and non-carbonated beverages (NCBs) sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo.
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Varun Beverages Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as the franchisee of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and non-carbonated beverages (NCBs) sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo. It is involved in the manufacture, bottling, distribution, and sale of a range of CSDs under the Pepsi, Pepsi Black, Mountain Dew, Mirinda, and 7UP brands; energy drinks under the Sting and Sting Blue brands; club sodas under the Evervess and Dukes brands; and carbonated juice-based drinks under the 7UP Nimbooz Masala Soda brand. The company also produces and distributes NCBs comprising fruit pulp/juice-based drinks under the Tropicana 100%, Tropicana Delight, Slice, and 7UP Nimbooz brands; ice-tea in various flavors under the Lipton brand; sports drinks in various flavors under the Gatorade brand; packaged drinking water under the Aquafina and Aquavess brands; and value-added dairy-based beverages under the Cream Bell brand. It sells its products to retail outlets directly and through distributors in India, as well as territories of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Morocco, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Congo, Dubai, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, Botswana, and Mozambique. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Gurugram, India.
Stock analysis
Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) currently trades at ₹421.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹187.49, implying the stock looks roughly 125.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹262.21 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹421.80 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹25.80, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹88.00 (bear) to ₹234.54 (bull), the price of ₹421.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Varun Beverages Ltd reported revenue of ₹222B in FY2025 versus ₹89.6B in FY2021, a compound +25.5%/yr. Reported net income was ₹30.4B in FY2025, compounding +44.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap ₹1.7T (≈ $18.1B) · P/E ratio 44.7 · P/S ratio 6.11 · EPS (TTM) ₹9.43 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 16.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −56%, VBL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹88.00Fair Value ₹187.49Bull ₹234.54
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹6.10 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.7%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 29%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 17%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.1%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+56.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (63 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 89 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−55% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Above median
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)44.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B8.90× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.68× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF2.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA33.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)91· sector 47
PAST (return on equity)67· sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹187.49 versus a price of ₹421.80, about −56% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VBL?
Our model-based fair value for Varun Beverages Ltd is ₹187.49 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹421.80.
What is the quality score of VBL?
Varun Beverages Ltd has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹187.49 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹88.00, optimistic scenario ₹234.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Varun Beverages Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹187.49, about −56% upside versus a price of ₹421.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹88.00, optimistic scenario ₹234.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
Varun Beverages Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹227B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
Does Varun Beverages Ltd pay a dividend?
Varun Beverages Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Varun Beverages Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +56.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +27.7 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of VBL use?
Our models discount Varun Beverages Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.26, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Varun Beverages Ltd that is +56.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Varun Beverages Ltd grew +27.7 % a year. The price currently implies +56.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Varun Beverages Ltd (+56.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.54 %: that much free cash flow Varun Beverages Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Varun Beverages Ltd it is ₹187.49 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of ₹421.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Varun Beverages Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, VBL trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹421.80, fair value ₹187.49, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of VBL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹421.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹187.49). For Varun Beverages Ltd the two are ₹234.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Varun Beverages Ltd worth?
The market values Varun Beverages Ltd at about ₹1.7T (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is ₹421.80; our models calculate a fair value of ₹187.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about VBL?
Our models span a range for Varun Beverages Ltd: cautious scenario ₹88.00, base ₹187.49, optimistic ₹234.54 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price ₹421.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of VBL?
Varun Beverages Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 44.7 (as of Sep 18, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹187.49 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 8.9, P/S 7.7, EV/EBITDA 33.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Varun Beverages Ltd (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity 16.8%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is VBL from its 52-week high?
Varun Beverages Ltd trades at ₹421.80, about 24% below its 52-week high of ₹555.60 and 11% above the low of ₹380.16 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹187.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Varun Beverages Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, PepsiCo, Inc, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Varun Beverages Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price ₹421.80, calculated fair value ₹187.49 (−56%), Quality Score 51/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of VBL calculated?
We run Varun Beverages Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹187.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Varun Beverages Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was ₹421.80. Our model-based fair value is ₹187.49, about −56% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Varun Beverages Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹234.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (₹88.00 to ₹234.54). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Varun Beverages Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
The market capitalisation of Varun Beverages Ltd is ₹1.7T (≈ $18.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Varun Beverages Ltd is 6.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
Earnings per share at Varun Beverages Ltd are ₹9.43 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 44.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
The dividend yield of Varun Beverages Ltd is 0.2% (payout 10.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
The net margin of Varun Beverages Ltd is 13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Varun Beverages Ltd is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Varun Beverages Ltd is 16.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
The operating margin of Varun Beverages Ltd is 18.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
Revenue at Varun Beverages Ltd is growing +18.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL)?
Earnings per share at Varun Beverages Ltd are growing +20.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) carry?
The net debt of Varun Beverages Ltd is ₹2.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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