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Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · IN · Market cap ₹1.7T

VB Varun Beverages Limited VBL · BSE
Price₹495.70
Fair Value₹187.49
Upside-62.2%
Quality56/100
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Expensive Growth
Solidly profitable · 14.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.20% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
Moderate moat 64/100
Evidence: High Range ₹114.82 – ₹340.87 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 6, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 32 days ago

Share price −5.3% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 62% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹340.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (₹114.82 to ₹340.87). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

₹669.56 ₹77.14 Fair Value ₹187.49 Feb 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹77.14 – ₹669.56 · fair‑value band ₹114.82 – ₹340.87 · the ₹495.70 price screens above the ₹187.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 6, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) currently trades at ₹495.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹187.49, implying the stock looks roughly 62.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Varun Beverages Limited generated revenue of ₹227B at a net margin of 14.0%. Revenue grew 18.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.8%. Net debt stands at ₹2.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 6, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ₹114.82 (bear case) to ₹340.87 (bull case); at ₹495.70, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -9% fair-value upside, at -62%, VBL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ₹41.33 ₹77.83 ₹153.34 80
Residual Income ₹62.34 ₹84.56 ₹305.59 76
Rev-Margin DCF ₹95.84 ₹208.72 ₹383.15 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ₹43.44 ₹69.24 ₹150.67 38
Owner Earnings ₹70.62 ₹160.53 ₹357.72 31
5Y Revenue Exit ₹95.84 ₹188.89 ₹377.22 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ₹118.53 ₹236.79 ₹460.08 41
5Y P/E Exit ₹113.72 ₹261.41 ₹459.07 38
10Y Revenue Exit ₹77.25 ₹196.34 ₹322.61 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ₹98.41 ₹242.50 ₹526.75 37
10Y P/E Exit ₹94.90 ₹232.72 ₹487.19 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ₹61.04 ₹425.72 ₹597.43 54
Lynch FV ₹137.93 ₹197.05 ₹256.16 50
PEG = 1.0 ₹137.93 ₹197.05 ₹256.16 46
EPV ₹103.01 ₹120.54 ₹136.12 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ₹14.43 ₹31.49 ₹52.99 70
DDM Multi-Stage ₹14.43 ₹25.80 ₹32.82 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ₹134.66 ₹179.54 ₹224.43 63
P/S Multiple ₹114.46 ₹152.61 ₹190.76 58
P/B Multiple ₹114.46 ₹152.61 ₹190.76 55
EV/EBIT ₹156.68 ₹207.68 ₹258.68 53
EV/EBITDA ₹144.83 ₹191.88 ₹238.93 54
EV/Revenue ₹106.81 ₹151.01 ₹195.21 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹28.94 ₹38.78 ₹57.88 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ₹41.33 ₹77.83 ₹153.34 80
Rev-Margin DCF ₹95.84 ₹208.72 ₹383.15 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ₹62.34 ₹84.56 ₹305.59 76
ROIC Compounder ₹132.12 ₹203.47 ₹268.15 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ₹179.93 ₹257.04 ₹334.16 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (₹257.04) versus Dividend Discount (₹25.80). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) ₹227B
Revenue growth (YoY) +18.1%
Net margin 14.0%
Return on equity 16.8%
Free cash flow ₹7.7B FY2025
P/E ratio 54.6
More key figures
Operating margin 18.5%
EPS (TTM) ₹9.43
Dividend yield 0.2%
EPS growth (YoY) +20.0%
Net debt ₹2.4B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 6, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 14
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 54
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Varun Beverages Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as the franchisee of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and non-carbonated beverages (NCBs) sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo.

Full company description

Varun Beverages Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as the franchisee of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) and non-carbonated beverages (NCBs) sold under trademarks owned by PepsiCo. It is involved in the manufacture, bottling, distribution, and sale of a range of CSDs under the Pepsi, Pepsi Black, Mountain Dew, Mirinda, and 7UP brands; energy drinks under the Sting and Sting Blue brands; club sodas under the Evervess and Dukes brands; and carbonated juice-based drinks under the 7UP Nimbooz Masala Soda brand. The company also produces and distributes NCBs comprising fruit pulp/juice-based drinks under the Tropicana 100%, Tropicana Delight, Slice, and 7UP Nimbooz brands; ice-tea in various flavors under the Lipton brand; sports drinks in various flavors under the Gatorade brand; packaged drinking water under the Aquafina and Aquavess brands; and value-added dairy-based beverages under the Cream Bell brand. It sells its products to retail outlets directly and through distributors in India, as well as territories of Nepal, Sri Lanka, Morocco, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Congo, Dubai, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, Botswana, and Mozambique. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is based in Gurugram, India.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Varun Beverages Limited reported revenue of ₹222B in FY2025 versus ₹89.6B in FY2021, a compound +25.5%/yr. Reported net income was ₹30.4B in FY2025, compounding +44.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
₹222B
Latest YoY
+8.5%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+18.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+27.7%
Avg. growth/yr (10Y)
+20.7%
Revenue +25.5%/yr
FY21 ₹89.6B
FY22 ₹134B
FY23 ₹163B
FY24 ₹205B
FY25 ₹222B
Net income +44.6%/yr
FY21 ₹6.9B
FY22 ₹15.0B
FY23 ₹20.6B
FY24 ₹25.9B
FY25 ₹30.4B

VBL screens 62% overvalued. Compare with The Coca-Cola Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Varun Beverages Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VBL

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 90 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Below median
Fair Value upside −62% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Above median
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 18% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.03× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 54.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 8.90× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 7.68× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.4× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 33.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 27
FUTURE 91 · sector 44
PAST 67 · sector 49
HEALTH 99 · sector 95
DIVIDEND 4 · sector 48

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 6, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Coca-Cola Company KO $86.83 $36.57 -58%
PepsiCo, Inc PEP $137.38 $106.91 -22%
Monster Beverage Corporation MNST $97.50 $35.82 -63%
Nongfu Spring Co 9633 HK$41.44 HK$30.72 -26%
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP €92.10 €85.41 -7%
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP $31.25 $30.99 -1%
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF $102.04 $106.45 +4%
Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE €57.90 €52.82 -9%
Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 ¥124.43 ¥107.57 -14%
MIXUE Group 2097 HK$229.20 HK$339.26 +48%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Varun Beverages Limited (VBL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹187.49 versus a price of ₹495.70, about −62% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VBL?
Our model-based fair value for Varun Beverages Limited is ₹187.49 (as of Jul 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ₹495.70.
What is the quality score of VBL?
Varun Beverages Limited has a Quality Score of 56/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Varun Beverages Limited (VBL)?
Varun Beverages Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹227B (latest available figure, as of Jul 6, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of VBL?
The net profit margin of Varun Beverages Limited is about 14.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 14.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Varun Beverages Limited pay a dividend?
Varun Beverages Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 6, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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