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Data-driven stock valuation

PepsiCo Inc (PEP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what PepsiCo Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $188B · ISIN US7134481081

At a glance

PI PepsiCo Inc logo PepsiCo Inc PEP · US
Price$137.63
Fair Value$106.91
Upside−22.3%
Quality63/100

A solid business, but trading 29% above our fair value of $106.91.

As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of PepsiCo Inc is $106.91 per share against a price of $137.63, so the fair value sits 22% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +5.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.2% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
·4.13% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
✓Wide moat 75/100
!Weak on valuation: 4 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $56.05 to $158.35

Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated today

Share price −0.8% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($56.05 to $158.35). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$175.40 $122.22 Fair Value $106.91 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $122.22 – $175.40 · fair‑value band $56.05 – $158.35 · the $137.63 price screens above the $106.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

PepsiCo Inc (PEP) currently trades at $137.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $106.91, implying the stock looks roughly 28.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $106.91 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $137.63 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $30.70, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, PepsiCo Inc generated revenue of $95.4B at a net margin of 9.2%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 43.9%. Net debt stands at $40.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026

Scenario range: $56.05 (bear) to $158.35 (bull), the price of $137.63 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −22%, PEP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3219 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $37.28 $67.63 $112.25 78
Growth DCF $38.75 $66.34 $104.83 77
Owner Earnings $39.94 $71.60 $118.14 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $37.28 $67.63 $112.25 78
Owner Earnings $39.94 $71.60 $118.14 74
5Y Revenue Exit $41.56 $79.73 $127.58 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $69.23 $130.07 $199.64 73
5Y P/E Exit $51.58 $97.95 $145.27 69
10Y Revenue Exit $37.27 $71.38 $115.33 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $56.85 $105.82 $168.94 66
10Y P/E Exit $45.72 $83.85 $128.49 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $41.02 $110.18 $144.21 65
Lynch FV $21.49 $30.70 $39.92 61
PEG = 1.0 $21.49 $30.70 $39.92 57
EPV $56.19 $69.61 $81.34 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $51.34 $106.75 $169.34 66
DDM Multi-Stage $51.34 $79.85 $110.23 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $95.01 $126.68 $158.35 63
P/S Multiple $76.91 $102.55 $128.18 58
P/B Multiple $61.62 $82.16 $102.70 55
EV/EBIT $101.65 $143.62 $185.59 65
EV/EBITDA $101.84 $143.88 $185.91 67
EV/Revenue $47.92 $78.86 $109.80 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.47 $10.01 $14.94 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $38.75 $66.34 $104.83 77
Rev-Margin DCF $41.56 $79.97 $122.39 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income $34.58 $41.04 $153.10 64
ROIC Compounder $60.67 $81.23 $104.16 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $74.84 $106.91 $138.99 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($106.91) versus Asset-Based ($10.01). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 21.6
P/S ratio 1.90 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $6.37 price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.6
Dividend yield 4.1% payout 89.3%
Net margin 8.8% FY2025
Return on equity 43.9% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 17.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $95.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.5% 3y avg +2.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +27.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $7.7B FY2025
Net debt $40.7B FY2025 · ≈ 5.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

PepsiCo, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide. The company operates through six segments: PepsiCo Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; International Beverages Franchise; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America Foods; and Asia Pacific Foods.

Full company description

PepsiCo, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide. The company operates through six segments: PepsiCo Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; International Beverages Franchise; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America Foods; and Asia Pacific Foods. It offers cereals, chips, dips, granola bars, oatmeal, pasta, rice, and syrups and mixes; refrigerated dips and spreads; beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods; and ready-to-drink tea and coffee products. The company also provides SodaStream sparkling water makers and related products, as well as various dairy products under the Agusha, Chudo, and Domik v Derevne brands. It serves wholesale and other distributors, foodservice customers, grocery stores, drug stores, convenience stores, discount/dollar stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, hard discounters, e-commerce retailers and authorized independent bottlers, and others through a network of direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and distributor networks, as well as directly to consumers through e-commerce platforms and retailers. PepsiCo, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is based in Purchase, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PepsiCo Inc reported revenue of $93.9B in FY2025 versus $79.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.2B in FY2025, compounding +2.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 76/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$93.9B
Latest YoY
+2.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+9.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+5.5%
Dividend yield4.1%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 2.9% vs 10Y 3.5%, steady
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14.3% (2020) → 14.4% (2025) · steady
Worst earnings drop15% (2015) · in USD
Revenue +4.3%/yr
FY21 $79.5B
FY22 $86.4B
FY23 $91.5B
FY24 $91.9B
FY25 $93.9B
Net income +2.0%/yr
FY21 $7.6B
FY22 $8.9B
FY23 $9.1B
FY24 $9.6B
FY25 $8.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +5.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.0 %

of which total revenue +4.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.9 %

EBIT margin −0.4 %
Tax rate +0.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

PEP screens 29% overvalued. Compare with The Coca-Cola Company →

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PepsiCo Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PepsiCo Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PEP

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 87 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside −22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 44% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.07× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 9.23× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.97× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 24.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.53× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must PepsiCo Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+9.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+5.9 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.1 %
FCF yield on price4.06 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.1 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE4 · sector 16
FUTURE43 · sector 43
PAST100 · sector 51
HEALTH0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND83 · sector 54

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
The Coca-Cola Company KO $88.07 $36.57 −58%
Monster Beverage Corporation MNST $43.82 $35.82 −18%
Nongfu Spring Co 9633 HK$42.54 HK$30.90 −27%
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC CCEP €93.10 €70.86 −24%
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc KDP $32.18 $30.99 −4%
Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A. KOF $112.58 $108.50 −4%
Coca-Cola HBC AG EEE €53.10 €46.77 −12%
Varun Beverages Limited VBL ₹431.00 ₹187.49 −56%
Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co 605499 ¥123.07 ¥107.57 −13%
MIXUE Group 2097 HK$232.60 HK$307.46 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PepsiCo Inc (PEP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $106.91 versus a price of $137.63, about −22% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PEP?
Our model-based fair value for PepsiCo Inc is $106.91 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $137.63.
What is the quality score of PEP?
PepsiCo Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $106.91 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $56.05, optimistic scenario $158.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PepsiCo Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $106.91, about −22% upside versus a price of $137.63 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $56.05, optimistic scenario $158.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
PepsiCo Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $95.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PEP?
The net profit margin of PepsiCo Inc is about 9.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does PepsiCo Inc pay a dividend?
PepsiCo Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PepsiCo Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PEP use?
Our models discount PepsiCo Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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