PepsiCo, Inc (PEP) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $188B

A solid business, but screening 23% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The model range is unusually wide ($57.19 to $158.35). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $121.93 – $175.40 · fair‑value band $57.19 – $158.35 · the $138.44 price screens above the $106.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

PepsiCo, Inc (PEP) currently trades at $138.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $106.91, implying the stock looks roughly 22.8% overvalued today. We read business quality at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, PepsiCo, Inc generated revenue of $95.4B at a net margin of 9.2%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 43.9%. Net debt stands at $40.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $57.19 (bear case) to $158.35 (bull case); at $138.44, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -9% fair-value upside, at -23%, PEP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($104.11) versus Asset-Based ($10.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

PepsiCo, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide. The company operates through six segments: PepsiCo Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; International Beverages Franchise; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America Foods; and Asia Pacific Foods.

Full company description

PepsiCo, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide. The company operates through six segments: PepsiCo Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; International Beverages Franchise; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America Foods; and Asia Pacific Foods. It offers cereals, chips, dips, granola bars, oatmeal, pasta, rice, and syrups and mixes; refrigerated dips and spreads; beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods; and ready-to-drink tea and coffee products. The company also provides SodaStream sparkling water makers and related products, as well as various dairy products under the Agusha, Chudo, and Domik v Derevne brands. It serves wholesale and other distributors, foodservice customers, grocery stores, drug stores, convenience stores, discount/dollar stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, hard discounters, e-commerce retailers and authorized independent bottlers, and others through a network of direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and distributor networks, as well as directly to consumers through e-commerce platforms and retailers. PepsiCo, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is based in Purchase, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PepsiCo, Inc reported revenue of $93.9B in FY2025 versus $79.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.2B in FY2025, compounding +2.0%/yr from FY2021.

PEP screens 23% overvalued. Compare with The Coca-Cola Company →

Peer Group

Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 90 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.