PepsiCo Inc (PEP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PepsiCo Inc stock $97.18, price $142, that is 31.8% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $120.93 – $173.55 · fair‑value band $55.00 – $155.93 · the $142.42 price screens above the $97.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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PepsiCo, Inc. engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide.
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The company operates through six segments: PepsiCo Foods North America; PepsiCo Beverages North America; International Beverages Franchise; Europe, Middle East and Africa; Latin America Foods; and Asia Pacific Foods.
It offers cereals, chips, dips, granola bars, oatmeal, pasta, rice, and syrups and mixes; refrigerated dips and spreads; beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods; and ready-to-drink tea and coffee products.
The company also provides SodaStream sparkling water makers and related products, as well as various dairy products under the Agusha, Chudo, and Domik v Derevne brands.
It serves wholesale and other distributors, foodservice customers, grocery stores, drug stores, convenience stores, discount/dollar stores, mass merchandisers, membership stores, hard discounters, e-commerce retailers and authorized independent bottlers, and others through a network of direct-store-delivery, customer warehouse, and distributor networks, as well as directly to consumers through e-commerce platforms and retailers.
PepsiCo, Inc. was founded in 1898 and is based in Purchase, New York.
Stock analysis
PepsiCo Inc (PEP) currently trades at $142.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $97.18, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $126.98 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $142.42 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $30.78, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $55.00 (bear) to $155.93 (bull), the price of $142.42 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
PepsiCo Inc reported revenue of $93.9B in FY2025 versus $79.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $8.2B in FY2025, compounding +2.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $195B Large · P/E ratio 17.9 · P/S ratio 1.99 · EPS (TTM) $7.95 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 11.1% · Return on equity 52.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −32%, PEP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$55.00Fair Value $97.18Bull$155.93
Price $142.42 · Downside -31.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.82 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $23.7M, on Oct 14, 2026. Over the same period, 2 people sold shares worth $4.5M.
SaleRamon LaguartaChairman and CEO, Director2× since Mar 2, 2026: 57,945 shares, avg. $150.69$8.7MOct 21, 2026
BuyRobert C PohladDirector184,646 shares at $128.28$23.7MOct 14, 2026
SaleDavid FlavellEVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec2,900 shares at $139.54$404,666Jul 27, 2026
SaleEugene WillemsenCEO, International Beverages6,500 shares at $164.45$1.1MMar 4, 2026
Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+8.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2.9% vs 3.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.0% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from brand strength and distribution is offset by limited signals on innovation, human capital and alignment together with North American weakness.
Main risk: AI-powered personalized nutrition tools and GLP-1 drugs could accelerate consumer shifts away from calorie-dense snacks, squeezing volumes and margins in PepsiCo's Frito-Lay segment.
Bull case: PepsiCo could accelerate its shift to zero-sugar, protein-rich and functional products while using AI for supply-chain efficiency and targeted marketing to retain relevance in evolving consumer preferences.
Bear case: If health trends and regulatory costs intensify without offsetting innovation, PepsiCo might face persistent volume declines in snacks and beverages alongside higher packaging expenses that erode profitability.
PepsiCo draws more than half its revenue from North America, yet that region posted volume declines and missed internal targets in the latest quarter. Management is now layering in structural cost cuts and testing combined snack-beverage distribution in key markets while directing fresh spending toward functional drinks and flavor extensions. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the efficiency drive free meaningful resources for growth, or will ongoing North American pressure continue to cap returns?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Non-Alcoholic · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside−31.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)52.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)11.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)16.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.07× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Non-Alcoholic median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)17.9× · Pricier than median
P/B9.55× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.99× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow25.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.9× · Pricier than median
PEG1.38× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 17
FUTURE (revenue growth)28· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 52
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)82· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PepsiCo Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PEP
Frequently asked questions
Is PepsiCo Inc (PEP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $97.18 versus a price of $142.42, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PEP?
Our model-based fair value for PepsiCo Inc is $97.18 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $142.42.
What is the quality score of PEP?
PepsiCo Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $97.18 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $55.00, optimistic scenario $155.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PepsiCo Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $97.18, about 32% lower versus a price of $142.42 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $55.00, optimistic scenario $155.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
PepsiCo Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $98.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does PepsiCo Inc pay a dividend?
PepsiCo Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 4.08% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PepsiCo Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PEP use?
Our models discount PepsiCo Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.36, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PepsiCo Inc that is +12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PepsiCo Inc (PEP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PepsiCo Inc grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies +12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PepsiCo Inc (PEP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PepsiCo Inc (+12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.93 %: that much free cash flow PepsiCo Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PepsiCo Inc it is $97.18 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $142.42. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PepsiCo Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, PEP trades above its calculated fair value: price $142.42, fair value $97.18, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PEP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($142.42); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($97.18). For PepsiCo Inc the two are $45.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PepsiCo Inc worth?
The market values PepsiCo Inc at about $195B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $142.42; our models calculate a fair value of $97.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PEP?
Our models span a range for PepsiCo Inc: cautious scenario $55.00, base $97.18, optimistic $155.93 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $142.42). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PEP?
PepsiCo Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $97.18 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 20.2 (reported for FY2025: 23.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 9 of the years ex one-offs: 23.3. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 9.6, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 11.9.
What is the PEG ratio of PEP?
The PEG ratio of PepsiCo Inc is 1.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
Balance-sheet figures for PepsiCo Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 52.2%, debt of 2.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PEP from its 52-week high?
PepsiCo Inc trades at $142.42, about 14% below its 52-week high of $165.45 and 15% above the low of $123.73 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $97.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PepsiCo Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Coca-Cola Company, Monster Beverage Corporation, Nongfu Spring Co, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PepsiCo Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $142.42, calculated fair value $97.18 (−32%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PEP calculated?
We run PepsiCo Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $97.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. PepsiCo Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $142.42. Our model-based fair value is $97.18, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PepsiCo Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($55.00 to $155.93). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of PepsiCo Inc (PEP) come from?
Earnings per share at PepsiCo Inc grew +5.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.0 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of PepsiCo Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
The market capitalisation of PepsiCo Inc is $195B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PepsiCo Inc is 1.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
Earnings per share at PepsiCo Inc are $7.95 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
The dividend yield of PepsiCo Inc is 4.1% (payout 62.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 73.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
The net margin of PepsiCo Inc is 11.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PepsiCo Inc is 52.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PepsiCo Inc is 12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
The operating margin of PepsiCo Inc is 16.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
Revenue at PepsiCo Inc is growing +5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PepsiCo Inc (PEP)?
Earnings per share at PepsiCo Inc are growing +17.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PepsiCo Inc (PEP) carry?
The net debt of PepsiCo Inc is $40.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026