PT Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk (BAJA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 301B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from 56.12 IDR to 56.41 IDR (+0.5%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +124.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 84% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (56.41 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 71.00 IDR – 480.00 IDR · fair‑value band 48.18 IDR – 56.41 IDR · the 362.00 IDR price screens above the 56.41 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
PT Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk (BAJA) currently trades at 362.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 56.41 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 84.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk generated revenue of 824B IDR at a net margin of -4.4%. Revenue grew 8.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -92.9%. Net debt stands at 395B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 48.18 IDR (bear case) to 56.41 IDR (bull case); at 362.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -84%, BAJA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (71.92 IDR) versus Asset-Based (7.92 IDR). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk engages in manufacturing and trading of steel products in Indonesia. The company operates through four segments: Galvanized, Saranalume, Saranacolor, and Non-production. It markets its products under the Sarana, Saranalume, and Saranacolor brand names.
Full company description
PT Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk engages in manufacturing and trading of steel products in Indonesia. The company operates through four segments: Galvanized, Saranalume, Saranacolor, and Non-production. It markets its products under the Sarana, Saranalume, and Saranacolor brand names. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Saranacentral Bajatama Tbk reported revenue of 824B IDR in FY2025 versus 1.4T IDR in FY2021, a compound −12.0%/yr. Reported net income was −36.4B IDR in FY2025.
BAJA screens 84% overvalued. Compare with Tata Steel Limited →
Peer Group
Steel · 378 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tata Steel Limited TTST | $0.2010 | $0.2000 | -0% |
| JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL | ₹1,227 | ₹1,140 | -7% |
| Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 | ¥5.89 | ¥8.07 | +37% |
| China Steel Corporation 2002A | 38.55 TWD | 8.74 TWD | -77% |
| POSCO Holdings 005490 | 313,500 KRW | 155,270 KRW | -50% |
| Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID | 13,670 ARS | 15,940 ARS | +17% |
| Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL | ₹1,028 | ₹545.12 | -47% |
| Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME | ₹1,844 | ₹1,098 | -40% |
| SSAB AB SSABA | kr 96.04 | kr 72.43 | -25% |
| Gerdau S.A GGBN | 83.50 MXN | 42.64 MXN | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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